PUMA Backlash in Arkansas?

[Padfoot]

Only 5 states saw a swing towards McCain in 2008

Arkansas: McCain +9.93%
Louisiana: McCain +4.22
Oklahoma: McCain +0.15%
Tennessee: McCain +0.89%
West Virginia: McCain +0.25%

The small swings towards McCain in the last three states listed is not very significant especially given Obama and the Democrats had virtually no interest in the these states at all since they weren't competitive at any level.  Essentially these states voted the same way they did 4 years ago. 

Louisiana's larger swing is the manifestation of the electoral damage done to the Democrats in this state by Katrina.  Without Katrina I would have expected this state to look more like Mississippi and Alabama which saw similarly sized swings towards Obama.

But how to explain the massive GOP swing in Arkansas?  One word: HillBillies.  This is probably the only state with any kind of real PUMA effect.  I can think of no other explanation as to why Arkansas would swing over 9 points to the GOP while nearly every other Bush state was seeing swings of 5 points or more to Obama.  Its a complete anomaly.  Sure, Obama's weakest area was probably the so-called "interior south" (sometimes "border south") area Arkansas is frequently lumped into but none of the other states in that region saw a shift like this.

I don't see how the Arkansas electorate can come out of this looking like anything other than bitter grudge holders.  There were many states and voters who voted for John McCain this past election day and I'm sure the vast majority of those voters had valid reasons for doing so based on their take on the issues.  But in Arkansas, a significant portion of voters were unable to be gracious in defeat and they chose to vote against Barack Obama in order to vent out an unjustified grudge.  What a bunch of sore losers.

[The Ex-Factor]

There are a few plausible explanations. I will try a few.
1. There was literally no state in the union where Obama tried less than in Arkansas. I believe it was the only state in the primaries that he never bothered to open a field office in.
2. Party Unity My Ass! (note that this has been happening at the national level for Arkansas Democrats for a long time, unless a Clinton is on the ticket)
3. John Kerry was a great fit for the state and overperformed! This was just Obama falling back to the mean, duh.
4. Bill Clinton secretly told everyone in the state to vote McCain.
5. Mike Huckabee secretly told everyone he would hang them like he did those squirrels if they didn't vote GOP.
6.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, I'm sure it had more to do with racism than anything else, and that goes for all of those filthy states.

[Sam Spade]

Louisiana's larger swing is the manifestation of the electoral damage done to the Democrats in this state by Katrina.  Without Katrina I would have expected this state to look more like Mississippi and Alabama which saw similarly sized swings towards Obama.

Orleans County only cast 50,000 less votes than in 2004, and that was probably equalized by increased black turnout in the rest of the state (northern Louisiana especially)

The swing in Louisiana was entirely due to the Cajun collapse.  Kerry got a decent % of their votes in 2004 (henceforth how he got 30% of whites in the state).  Obama got zero (or something close).  Just look at Southern Louisiana parish swings when you get a chance.

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Let's not be stupid.  We know what Arkansas was about.  After all, the former President fit in quite well there.

[phk]

Isn't this the one state where Obama had like 0 organization?

[The Ex-Factor]

Isn't this the one state where Obama had like 0 organization?

There are a few plausible explanations. I will try a few.
1. There was literally no state in the union where Obama tried less than in Arkansas. I believe it was the only state in the primaries that he never bothered to open a field office in.

[J. J.]

MSNBC mentioned that one in five Clinton voters did vote for McCain.

[Stranger in a strange land]

MSNBC mentioned that one in five Clinton voters did vote for McCain.

and how many of those were Operation Chaos Participants? That obviously wouldn't be a factor in Arkansas, but it would be in Texas, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[Lief 🗽]

MSNBC mentioned that one in five Clinton voters did vote for McCain.

So Obama didn't even need 100% of Clinton supporters to crush McCain.

[minionofmidas]

Sam's right on Louisiana, of course.

As to Arkansas... one factor in Arkansas (and Tennessee to a lesser extent - got counteracted by the larger metros there, too) is, quite simply, that John Kerry, for reasons that might have to do with organization, might have to do with 96 and 2000 just not as far away yet, might have to do with whatever, overperformed. And overperformed in a specific way: Held onto the votes of demographics that deserted the Democratic party elsewhere in the nation. Kerry got, like, 30% of the self-identified White Born-Again / Conservative Christian vote in Arkansas. About 10% elsewhere in the nation.
Obviously, there was a massive potential for collapse here. That doesn't of course mean the collapse was inevitable.

[Gustaf]

I think Lewis has a point. Arkansas was an anomaly in 2004 and moved closer to its neighbours in this election. But I would definitely say that the Clinton factor was a presence too. Besides, wouldn't that be the explanation for Obama's lack of organisation in the state too?

[J. J.]

MSNBC mentioned that one in five Clinton voters did vote for McCain.

So Obama didn't even need 100% of Clinton supporters to crush McCain.

That wasn't the question.

[minionofmidas]

I think Lewis has a point. Arkansas was an anomaly in 2004 and moved closer to its neighbours in this election. But I would definitely say that the Clinton factor was a presence too. Besides, wouldn't that be the explanation for Obama's lack of organisation in the state too?

Certainly "yes" on the last question.

[Padfoot]

According to CNN's exit polls.  Obama won 83% of Clinton voters nationwide and only 68% of Clinton voters in Arkansas.  I don't see how you can look at those numbers and say the primary was not a major factor in the huge swing we saw in this state.

[jamestroll]

Sam's right on Louisiana, of course.

As to Arkansas... one factor in Arkansas (and Tennessee to a lesser extent - got counteracted by the larger metros there, too) is, quite simply, that John Kerry, for reasons that might have to do with organization, might have to do with 96 and 2000 just not as far away yet, might have to do with whatever, overperformed. And overperformed in a specific way: Held onto the votes of demographics that deserted the Democratic party elsewhere in the nation. Kerry got, like, 30% of the self-identified White Born-Again / Conservative Christian vote in Arkansas. About 10% elsewhere in the nation.
Obviously, there was a massive potential for collapse here. That doesn't of course mean the collapse was inevitable.

Yup... like nine years later I completely agree with this.

Hillary Clinton of 2008 may have had a significant shot in Arkansas in 2008 but there would have been a collapse eventually.

2004 may have been the last election in which old yellow dog voters made a difference. Though in 2008 they almost gave Missouri to Obama. A lot of the voters which kept Missouri close in 2008 and Arkansas close in 2000 are dead quite frankly.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

According to CNN's exit polls.  Obama won 83% of Clinton voters nationwide and only 68% of Clinton voters in Arkansas.  I don't see how you can look at those numbers and say the primary was not a major factor in the huge swing we saw in this state.

I believe that Clinton was a factor in 2008, but I'm skeptical that the 2008 Democratic primary in Arkansas was enough to deliver every statewide office, the legislature, and the entire congressional delegation, to the GOP in six short years without any indication of them swinging back in the near future.  More was definitely at play here.

It is interesting, though.  If you take the early Clinton-McCain polls at face value, this could have been what the battlefield resembled in 2008: