Final ARG poll

[Tender Branson]

Obama 53 (+3)
McCain 45 (nc)

Barack Obama leads John McCain 89% to 9% among self-described Democrats (40% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 91% to 7% among self-described Republicans (33% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 56% to 42% among self-described independent voters (27% of likely voters).

McCain and Obama are tied at 49% each among men (47% of likely voters) for the first time. Among women (53% of likely voters), Obama leads McCain 57% to 41%.

McCain leads Obama 52% to 46% among white voters (78% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 94% to 4% among African American voters (11% of likely voters).

Obama leads McCain 55% to 43% among voters age 18 to 49 (55% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (45% of likely voters),Obama leads 51% to 47%.

Sample size: 1200 likely voters
Sample dates: November 1-3, 2008
Margin of error: ± 3 percentage points

http://americanresearchgroup.com

[Brittain33]

Aaaand ARG successfully kicks up Obama's number to split the difference between Gallup/CBS and everyone else.

[Firefly]

Obama 53 (+3)
McCain 45 (nc)

Barack Obama leads John McCain 89% to 9% among self-described Democrats (40% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 91% to 7% among self-described Republicans (33% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 56% to 42% among self-described independent voters (27% of likely voters).

McCain and Obama are tied at 49% each among men (47% of likely voters) for the first time. Among women (53% of likely voters), Obama leads McCain 57% to 41%.

McCain leads Obama 52% to 46% among white voters (78% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 94% to 4% among African American voters (11% of likely voters).

Obama leads McCain 55% to 43% among voters age 18 to 49 (55% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (45% of likely voters),Obama leads 51% to 47%.

Sample size: 1200 likely voters
Sample dates: November 1-3, 2008
Margin of error: ± 3 percentage points

http://americanresearchgroup.com

That's really close to my prediction.  Just add a percentage point to each candidate.