FL: Datamar: McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 47% (user search)
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  FL: Datamar: McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 47% (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL: Datamar: McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 47%  (Read 10081 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,043
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« on: November 04, 2008, 12:08:46 AM »

How could looking at a poll help you determine an inherently unpollable variable?  Do explain.

You look at the results and compare them with the polling.  I want to see if the poll is off and by how much.

For example, if Obama wins by within two points, we could conclude there wasn't a positive B.E.

If McCain wins by three points, we might be able to conclude there was a slight B.E.

Based on the poll (the poll is garbage, but that's irrelevant), a McCain victory of three would be MoE, not Bradley Effect.
Logged
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,043
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2008, 12:30:26 AM »

The polling database currently has Obama +1 in FL.

McCain +3 is still within MoE.
Logged
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,043
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2008, 01:43:30 AM »

OK, dude, it's over. No Bradley Effect. You were wrong, you got owned by reality yet again, suck up to it.
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