SurveyUSA: Minnesota a tossup, Obama leads by 3

[Franzl]

MN is the one state that I have never had as anything but Obama. 

not even Vermont?

[TheGlobalizer]

I had MN flagged as a possible R pickup, but that ship sailed a month ago, methinks.  The Senate race puts MN a little more into flux that I would normally expect.

Still, safe Obama.

[Brittain33]

One thing to keep in mind is that Minnesota was competitive in 2000 and 2004.  Bush lost it by 2.5 points in 2000 and 3.5 points in 2004.  It's not as much of a red state as most think.

Like Oregon, Minnesota only looks competitive in 2000 because of a dramatic Nader factor. One reason Nader did well there was because it wasn't seen as very competitive through much of 2000, allowing Minnesotan liberals to consider casting a protest vote, and then Nader decided to campaign there further. Eventually Gore had to start campaigning there, too, which was one of the first occasions that Democrats started getting really pissed off at Greens for screwing with the campaign dynamic.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

There was a Nader effect in 2000, and Kerry had it 6 pts more Dem than the nat'l average in 2004.  Not to mention Bush played pretty well in the Upper Midwest (for whatever reason, ask someone from there)

MN will not be close tomorrow.  I expect Obama to win it 56-43 or better. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at anyone who thinks that Minnesota will go Republican for the first time in 36 years.