PA-Rasmussen: Obama increases his lead to 6 points

[© tweed]

Everyone should remember that in February Rasmussen showed Obama losing by 10%.

the kid ran a pretty damn good campaign

Oops I meant winning.

lol

he still trailed a bunch of PA polls earlier in the cycle, but a lot of that was probably a result of lack of Democratic coalescence around Obama until Hillary dropped out.

[Lunar]

Anyway, the trend is clear.  Obama's sinking.

[© tweed]

Anyway, the trend is clear.  Obama's sinking.

yep by this rate Obama will be behind in PA by next summer

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amusing that a poll that, basically, shows no change whatsoever from the previous one could attract this much attention...

[Eraserhead]

Amusing that a poll that, basically, shows no change whatsoever from the previous one could attract this much attention...

It is!

Anyway, it's clear MCain has closed in here. It's probably too little, too late.

[Lunar]

Amusing that a poll that, basically, shows no change whatsoever from the previous one could attract this much attention...

It does a few things:

1) Indicates that the last poll was likely on the pro-McCain side of the MoE
2) Indicates that the state isn't sharply going McCain's direction

[Speed of Sound]

Amusing that a poll that, basically, shows no change whatsoever from the previous one could attract this much attention...

It does a few things:

1) Indicates that the last poll was likely on the pro-McCain side of the MoE
2) Indicates that the state isn't sharply going McCain's direction

Righto. If I know PA at all, most undecideds aren't gonna show up if the lines are long, even though McCain will heavily win them. If this Rassy is right, and I'm praying, I'm praying, then OBama should be alright here.

[Kalimantan]

...and thats the election. Thank you and goodnight.

[MR maverick]

Maybe come election night there will be a wave of black voters that crush the Gop and the Bradley voters/ undecideds.

[J. J.]

I'm thinking RAS repolled it because of the black sample that he got last time and wanted to have a "better" poll be his last one(who knows which one will be closer to the actual result).

How much of the black vote is Obama getting in this one?

94%.

which is incredibly high in Pennsylvania, right? Obviously there's a reason for that, this year.

Two points off Bush in 2000; Bush got 8%.  It's not too much better.  The key will be the turnout.

Didn't Bush get 16% or 18% in 2004?

I think it was 11%.  The black turnout for Kerry was relatively good.  My precinct had 170 voters at just after 2:00 PM in 2004.  I think it was 135 at 2:00 PM in 2000, when Jesse Jackson was called in to try to boost the vote.

I am expecting close to 200, 197 or about a 10% boost.