Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer

[afleitch]

I wonder if the Dow on next Monday would have an impact.

For the last time, people don't vote based on the daily flunctuations of the DOW.

I agree with the above - sometiumes you have to think outside of the box of the forum. No one gives a sh-t about the DOW - it's the two 'g's' Gas and Groceries.

[afleitch]

I just find this too reminiscent of the claim that Bush could really challenge in PA in 2004 and the genuine suprise, among some at least when Pennsylvania was called early.

[afleitch]

I just find this too reminiscent of the claim that Bush could really challenge in PA in 2004 and the genuine suprise, among some at least when Pennsylvania was called early.

I've been calling PA for Obama for about six weeks, but close.

I realize that if there is a Bradley Effect, and it's worse (in PA) than I thought, Obama might be in trouble.  The thing that really scares me is the 75% in Phila; that is low for Phila to start with. 

(Hint:  I really don't want there to be a bigger Bradley Effect than I thought.)

The real fear here is of 'blinkered' vision affecting the few days of the campaign. Activists pour into PA etc yet on election night even if McCain wins it, neighbouring states fall to Obama and Obama still wins handsomely. Kerry's campaign put all it's chips on Ohio and it failed. I have a feeling that McCain may be doing the same thing - focusing not just money and visits on PA but having activists focus on their too. A bus of activists crossing the Ohio border or coming up from Virginia to focus on PA is a bus less for two states where they matter just as much.

[afleitch]

What this tells me...is that if PA is now only slightly Obama...then McCain is likely ahead in OH, MO, FL.

That's not how state polling works (or national polling for that matter) Don't 'transplant polls'

[afleitch]

What this tells me...is that if PA is now only slightly Obama...then McCain is likely ahead in OH, MO, FL.

Except that he isn't...

We haven't had any new polls the last 48 hrs or so for Ohio or Florida...or even Virginia for that matter. Obama's lead was dwindling on October 28th...and it's November 1st. I want some Rasmussen/Strategic Vision/Mason-Dixon polls out of Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Missouri post-McCain surge.

The McCain surge has dampened if not fallen back during the last half of last week. Any new polls showing a 'state poll lag' (which I don't believe occurs as I've said before) would therefore not reflect the Obama climb.