Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer (user search)
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  Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer (search mode)
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Author Topic: Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer  (Read 18569 times)
J. J.
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« on: November 01, 2008, 08:02:09 AM »

While McCain and Plain are regularly going there these days, Obama is remaining out of PA. This is definitely not good. He needs to go back there to stop this rot Sad .

Obama was here Tuesday and Biden was in the Phila media market yesterday.

PA will be close, as I have been saying for, oh, about five weeks.

Turnout will make the difference.  I'm expecting a heavy black turnout, and I hope to have a good guess by 3 PM.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2008, 09:21:24 AM »

There is one thing.  

I made two two assumptions:

1.  There is a Bradley Effect.

2.  The net result will be 1-2 points.

I gave the state to Obama based on that.

In three of the four races that I looked at in 2006, it was arguably in the 3-4 point range.

If I were Obama, I'd be very worried that I was only at 75% in Phila.

"Miracle on the Monongahela?"   I'm still not calling it.

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J. J.
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2008, 10:19:43 AM »

Obama has dropped 9 points on Rasmussen in the last 26 days in PA.  It's been a study decline, and it has been reflected in most of the other polls.

My Obama 1.5 margin prediction will be within a 3 point MOE.  I don't know which way.

I may have underestimated the Bradley Effect in PA if not nationally.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2008, 10:35:01 AM »

I just find this too reminiscent of the claim that Bush could really challenge in PA in 2004 and the genuine suprise, among some at least when Pennsylvania was called early.

I've been calling PA for Obama for about six weeks, but close.

I realize that if there is a Bradley Effect, and it's worse (in PA) than I thought, Obama might be in trouble.  The thing that really scares me is the 75% in Phila; that is low for Phila to start with. 

(Hint:  I really don't want there to be a bigger Bradley Effect than I thought.)
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J. J.
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Posts: 32,892
United States


« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2008, 11:08:53 AM »


The real fear here is of 'blinkered' vision affecting the few days of the campaign. Activists pour into PA etc yet on election night even if McCain wins it, neighbouring states fall to Obama and Obama still wins handsomely. Kerry's campaign put all it's chips on Ohio and it failed. I have a feeling that McCain may be doing the same thing - focusing not just money and visits on PA but having activists focus on their too. A bus of activists crossing the Ohio border or coming up from Virginia to focus on PA is a bus less for two states where they matter just as much.

Actually, that wasn't Kerry's mistake.  It was trying to challenge in both OH and FL.  He pulled out of the neighboring WV too early IMO, as well.  My suggestion at the time was that Kerry should abandon FL, which prompted all these calls about the massive group of new voters that were going to turn out and swing the election in FL.

OH is probably McCain's state.  VA, NH, CO, and NV are the real pull off states for Obama, from the 2000 Bush states.  Obama has win all of them, if he loses PA.  I've always given it as being close, and Obama polling is declining.

I'm still giving Obama PA, but I feel like Imperial Office who tell the Grand Moff Tarkin that there is some danger.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2008, 11:22:40 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

And Obama will need NV, CO, and VA.  Those are not assured.
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J. J.
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Posts: 32,892
United States


« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2008, 11:37:43 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

And Obama will need NV, CO, and VA.  Those are not assured.

And McCain needs Florida, North Carolina and Missouri...

The electoral map looks a lot more attractive to Obama right now, PA or no PA.

And those he takes.
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J. J.
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Posts: 32,892
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2008, 12:04:23 PM »



So VA and CO aren't sure for Obama despite him leading every poll for the past month, but FL, NC and MO are sure for McCain despite trailing pretty much every poll for the past month?

Hack? Me?! Never!

No, in your case, just dishonest.  MO, FL and NC has been close, but all have had polls that has shown a tie or McCain ahead.

The polls mentioned in this thread give me great confidence in my despairing prediction - McCain will win Pennsylvania and the election, due to racism.

Ahem, Obama is still over 50%.

No, taking into account a reasonable Bradley Effect he is below McCain now, and anyway the trend is for him to be down by a couple of points by election day.

Unfortunately, Opebo may be right.
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J. J.
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Posts: 32,892
United States


« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2008, 12:24:48 PM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

And Obama will need NV, CO, and VA.  Those are not assured.

The last real poll (read: non-ARG) that has McCain up in Colorado is back in mid-September. The same applies to Nevada for a poll that isn't ARG or a uni. He also hasn't led in VA since very early October and that was M-D which has consistently tilted toward him.

BRTD, those have not been assured.  They are close, like PA.

I'm not a fan of the "win PA" strategy, but it could work.  I don't give the countermeasures, CO, NV, and VA as being a good strategy.  It's probably worse than the "win PA" strategy.
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J. J.
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Posts: 32,892
United States


« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2008, 10:45:07 PM »

Not scientific, but worth mentioning.... the Obama campaign is asking us to go to VA.

I guess Barack's ground game is all set in PA.

His groud game, in my area, has something to be desired.  I posted it on the main board.
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J. J.
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Posts: 32,892
United States


« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2008, 10:47:20 PM »

Nick and Phil, I'd suggest you read this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=87295.0

Please remember that I live in a ward that is greater than 95% black.
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J. J.
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 32,892
United States


« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2008, 11:29:46 PM »

Nick and Phil, I'd suggest you read this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=87295.0

Please remember that I live in a ward that is greater than 95% black.

I don't think that that matters much. They're already highly enthusiastic on their own. They'll be out in full force unless we get really bad weather and they trust the polls. Even then, they're "ready to make history."

A good local guy can boost turnout.  I hope to be able to post by 3:00 PM (and if I don't turnout will be through the roof.
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J. J.
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Posts: 32,892
United States


« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2008, 11:41:59 PM »

I read on 538 some guy says his wife is a doctor in Philly. Apparently every single black who had an appointment at her hospital on election day rescheduled. They don't want anything to possibly prevent them from voting. No person had ever canceled an appointment on election day for such a reason in the 30 years she's worked.

(Yes I know it's ancedotal evidence but that's all Phil ever gives.)

We'll know in less than 72 hours.

In 2000, turnout in my precinct was around 140 at 2:00 PM.  In 2004, it was 170. 
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J. J.
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Posts: 32,892
United States


« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2008, 11:54:19 PM »

If PA goes McCain (and I'm still betting it won't), the map would look like this:



You cold be be talking about adding CO and NH.
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J. J.
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Posts: 32,892
United States


« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2008, 08:16:11 AM »

New Hampshire? Granted, I don't believe the uni poll that had Obama up by 25, but even Zogby interactive couldn't be off by as much as that.

Would you care to tell me how well the polls were in NH in the primary?

It is an almost impossible place to poll.

Just announced, Obama is sending out urgent requests for volunteers in PA.
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