Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...

Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

And Obama will need NV, CO, and VA.  Those are not assured.

The last real poll (read: non-ARG) that has McCain up in Colorado is back in mid-September. The same applies to Nevada for a poll that isn't ARG or a uni. He also hasn't led in VA since very early October and that was M-D which has consistently tilted toward him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In its own little way this thread is actually quite amusing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Make of that whatever you feel like. But please try to be rational. Hah. No hope there I think...

My prediction was correct!

[J. J.]

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...

Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

And Obama will need NV, CO, and VA.  Those are not assured.

The last real poll (read: non-ARG) that has McCain up in Colorado is back in mid-September. The same applies to Nevada for a poll that isn't ARG or a uni. He also hasn't led in VA since very early October and that was M-D which has consistently tilted toward him.

BRTD, those have not been assured.  They are close, like PA.

I'm not a fan of the "win PA" strategy, but it could work.  I don't give the countermeasures, CO, NV, and VA as being a good strategy.  It's probably worse than the "win PA" strategy.

[Person Man]

O is over 50% and it is the weekend of Election Eve. McCain won't win Pennsylvania. If he does, I will have more respect for Abortion Doctors and Crack Whores than the people who lied to the pollsters

[Boris]

This is like the third consecutive poll to show Obama's lead at +4 (SV and MD being the other two). I still don't quite understand why Obama doesn't visit the state sometime within the next 77 hours or so. Even if he doesn't, the odds are still on his side in PA (and he's not going to lose the EV while up +5 nationally), but why take that risk?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...

Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

And Obama will need NV, CO, and VA.  Those are not assured.

The last real poll (read: non-ARG) that has McCain up in Colorado is back in mid-September. The same applies to Nevada for a poll that isn't ARG or a uni. He also hasn't led in VA since very early October and that was M-D which has consistently tilted toward him.

BRTD, those have not been assured.  They are close, like PA.

I'm not a fan of the "win PA" strategy, but it could work.  I don't give the countermeasures, CO, NV, and VA as being a good strategy.  It's probably worse than the "win PA" strategy.

Obama is over 50 in each one and has a lead outside the MoE. That is not "close". Same with PA too though of course.

[Eraserhead]

This is like the third consecutive poll to show Obama's lead at +4 (SV and MD being the other two). I still don't quite understand why Obama doesn't visit the state sometime within the next 77 hours or so. Even if he doesn't, the odds are still on his side in PA (and he's not going to lose the EV while up +5 nationally), but why take that risk?

If his people think he's really in danger, he'll go back. If they don't, he won't. I'll trust them on this. Axelrod and co. know what they are doing. Let's not forget the tons of other polls that still have it at double digits.

[Cashcow]

Even if Obama is only up 4 points.... he's still up four points. Three days isn't enough for this state to swing.

[LanceMcSteel]

LOLOLOLOL

Republican Limbaughesque hacks are hilarious.

Pollster.com=Obama 51.7% McCain 42.9%

RCP=Obama+ 8.5%

538=99% Chance of Obama winning PA

McCain is in Dole-Dukakis territory here in PA my friends.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Anybody see the crosstabs of this poll?

LOL.

[Person Man]

Yeah, if the dems are being this slippery, we need to start kicking people out of the party.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anybody see the crosstabs of this poll?

LOL.

Yeah apparentely McCain's movement in it has come basically exclusively from blacks. LOL.

[TheGlobalizer]

There has been virtually NO movement in the last fortnight, and if it's called early, and for McCain I have a feeling it'll be a LONG night, and spelling VERY bad news.

Agree.  If VA is called quickly, it's over, because it helps to level-set the rest of national numbers a bit, as to turnout and relative support.

[Nym90]

Democrats underpolled in PA in both 2004 and 2006. For what it's worth.

[ucscgaldamez]

I saw the internals and there is no way in hell that McCain is leading Obama among the 18-29 group. Not only that but he wont get 20% of blacks to vote for him and get +30% with the 30-39 crowd. Not only that, I don't trust Obama winning seniors in Pennsylvania either (almost by double digits). If this is true, then Obama will certainly win Pennsylvania as seniors tend to be reliable voters.

[Person Man]

Gee, if the 20-something today are THIS conservative, the political center by 2030 will make George Wallace blush and the "Right" will be trying to clone Hitler.

[Keystone Phil]

Barack, you're looking great here. Don't revise the schedule.

Hey, PA still going for Obama by double digits, guys?

[exopolitician]

Barack, you're looking great here. Don't revise the schedule.

Hey, PA still going for Obama by double digits, guys?

Probably not.


Will he win it though? Probably

[Moooooo]

Not scientific, but worth mentioning.... the Obama campaign is asking us to go to VA.

I guess Barack's ground game is all set in PA.

[Keystone Phil]

I guess Barack's ground game is all set in PA.

Well, they do have their people out. I did tons of lit dropping for McCain today and saw Obama stuff everywhere I went. I picked up some material at my ward meeting this morning. We meet right by the NE Dems office. There was a huge crowd of volunteers about to go out. That being said, we also had tons of people out today.

[Nym90]

Barack, you're looking great here. Don't revise the schedule.

Hey, PA still going for Obama by double digits, guys?

Even Clinton never won it by double digits so anyone expecting that for Obama was a bit optimistic. Though if Obama is up by 8 nationally (average of Rasmussen and Gallup trackers) then he is up by 10 in PA (at least). The idea of PA being more Republican than the nation as a whole for the first time in 60 years is something I'll have to see to believe.....I do expect the undecideds to break for McCain by about 60-40, so it should narrow by a point or two in both the national and state polls.

[Moooooo]

I guess Barack's ground game is all set in PA.

Well, they do have their people out. I did tons of lit dropping for McCain today and saw Obama stuff everywhere I went. I picked up some material at my ward meeting this morning. We meet right by the NE Dems office. There was a huge crowd of volunteers about to go out. That being said, we also had tons of people out today.

That answers my next question - who has more volunteers and the better ground game in PA... about even I guess

Joe Scarborough mentioned this morning Obama's ground game in FL was a well oiled machine... McCain's not so much... either he's confident in FL or Rick Davis got caught sleeping again

[Nym90]

Hopefully Mason-Dixon will poll PA again. They were the only pollster to nail 2004 in PA (everyone else was too Republican, well, excluding West Chester University....) and in 2006 they were the most accurate pollster in the state as well, though of course everyone was way too Republican.

[Keystone Phil]

I guess Barack's ground game is all set in PA.

Well, they do have their people out. I did tons of lit dropping for McCain today and saw Obama stuff everywhere I went. I picked up some material at my ward meeting this morning. We meet right by the NE Dems office. There was a huge crowd of volunteers about to go out. That being said, we also had tons of people out today.

That answers my next question - who has more volunteers and the better ground game in PA... about even I guess

Joe Scarborough mentioned this morning Obama's ground game in FL was a well oiled machine... McCain's not so much... either he's confident in FL or Rick Davis got caught sleeping again

I don't know who has the better ground game in PA right now. I think Obama has a lot more people but they are mostly out of state people that don't understand the area/what message works. Meanwhile, McCain has a solid organization but probably not enough order (we have been a bit disorganized). Also, I say we may have a slight advantage on Election day with Democratic ward leaders/committeepeople not lifting a finger for Obama in several key swing areas (and some of them supporting McCain).