Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer
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  Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer
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Author Topic: Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer  (Read 18559 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #50 on: November 01, 2008, 11:08:34 AM »

PA is 1 point more GOP than the national average.  Now this is good news.

According to this one poll.

You people remember that this is just one poll... right? Just checking.

Mason Dixon shows the same result.  It's been erratic lately, but at least Rasmussen backs him up.

If PA is this close, I think McCain may be carrying Ohio now.  He's been putting a lot of efforts into that state lately.

I've never had OH for Obama, I just don't feel it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #51 on: November 01, 2008, 11:08:53 AM »


The real fear here is of 'blinkered' vision affecting the few days of the campaign. Activists pour into PA etc yet on election night even if McCain wins it, neighbouring states fall to Obama and Obama still wins handsomely. Kerry's campaign put all it's chips on Ohio and it failed. I have a feeling that McCain may be doing the same thing - focusing not just money and visits on PA but having activists focus on their too. A bus of activists crossing the Ohio border or coming up from Virginia to focus on PA is a bus less for two states where they matter just as much.

Actually, that wasn't Kerry's mistake.  It was trying to challenge in both OH and FL.  He pulled out of the neighboring WV too early IMO, as well.  My suggestion at the time was that Kerry should abandon FL, which prompted all these calls about the massive group of new voters that were going to turn out and swing the election in FL.

OH is probably McCain's state.  VA, NH, CO, and NV are the real pull off states for Obama, from the 2000 Bush states.  Obama has win all of them, if he loses PA.  I've always given it as being close, and Obama polling is declining.

I'm still giving Obama PA, but I feel like Imperial Office who tell the Grand Moff Tarkin that there is some danger.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #52 on: November 01, 2008, 11:11:34 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #53 on: November 01, 2008, 11:15:14 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

That would provide an exciting election night, at least.
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J. J.
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« Reply #54 on: November 01, 2008, 11:22:40 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

And Obama will need NV, CO, and VA.  Those are not assured.
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Sbane
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« Reply #55 on: November 01, 2008, 11:24:30 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

I think this map is becoming more and more likely. The only problem being I still believe PA will be more democratic than VA. The west seems more and more likely to be lost to Mccain. BTW is he visiting NV these last few days? Or he could just make his campaign all about PA and VA.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #56 on: November 01, 2008, 11:26:18 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

And Obama will need NV, CO, and VA.  Those are not assured.

CO -- Yeah, it's assured
VA -- Pretty much, yeah
NV -- No, but it's leaning Obama
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #57 on: November 01, 2008, 11:28:14 AM »

I've been hearing on talk radio some good things for Republicans apparently in Colorado...I don't know how legit our chances are...but if McCain continues to close...it can hold.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #58 on: November 01, 2008, 11:28:57 AM »


That's your problem.
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Iosif
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« Reply #59 on: November 01, 2008, 11:31:45 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

And Obama will need NV, CO, and VA.  Those are not assured.

And McCain needs Florida, North Carolina and Missouri...

The electoral map looks a lot more attractive to Obama right now, PA or no PA.
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J. J.
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« Reply #60 on: November 01, 2008, 11:37:43 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

And Obama will need NV, CO, and VA.  Those are not assured.

And McCain needs Florida, North Carolina and Missouri...

The electoral map looks a lot more attractive to Obama right now, PA or no PA.

And those he takes.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #61 on: November 01, 2008, 11:44:04 AM »

Safe Obama. Of course McCain is going to close the gap a little bit, but so what? He's invested everything into the state, and he still can't get Obama below 50%? Meanwhile, Obama is solidifying his leads in Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada, and MO and IN (and now GA and AZ and MT and ND) are still tossups.
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Iosif
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« Reply #62 on: November 01, 2008, 11:48:12 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

If this happens, McCain will NEED Nevada or else he's toast.

And Obama will need NV, CO, and VA.  Those are not assured.

And McCain needs Florida, North Carolina and Missouri...

The electoral map looks a lot more attractive to Obama right now, PA or no PA.

And those he takes.

So VA and CO aren't sure for Obama despite him leading every poll for the past month, but FL, NC and MO are sure for McCain despite trailing pretty much every poll for the past month?

Hack? Me?! Never!
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opebo
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« Reply #63 on: November 01, 2008, 11:48:31 AM »

The polls mentioned in this thread give me great confidence in my despairing prediction - McCain will win Pennsylvania and the election, due to racism.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #64 on: November 01, 2008, 11:49:36 AM »

The polls mentioned in this thread give me great confidence in my despairing prediction - McCain will win Pennsylvania and the election, due to racism.

Ahem, Obama is still over 50%.
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opebo
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« Reply #65 on: November 01, 2008, 11:53:43 AM »

The polls mentioned in this thread give me great confidence in my despairing prediction - McCain will win Pennsylvania and the election, due to racism.

Ahem, Obama is still over 50%.

No, taking into account a reasonable Bradley Effect he is below McCain now, and anyway the trend is for him to be down by a couple of points by election day.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #66 on: November 01, 2008, 12:01:35 PM »

What this tells me...is that if PA is now only slightly Obama...then McCain is likely ahead in OH, MO, FL.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #67 on: November 01, 2008, 12:01:58 PM »

It's worrying Sad that Obama is only receiving the support of 75% of Democrats; down from 86% in Rasmussen's previous poll

Dave
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #68 on: November 01, 2008, 12:02:22 PM »

What this tells me...is that if PA is now only slightly Obama...then McCain is likely ahead in OH, MO, FL.
Except that he isn't...
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afleitch
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« Reply #69 on: November 01, 2008, 12:03:32 PM »

What this tells me...is that if PA is now only slightly Obama...then McCain is likely ahead in OH, MO, FL.

That's not how state polling works (or national polling for that matter) Don't 'transplant polls'
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J. J.
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« Reply #70 on: November 01, 2008, 12:04:23 PM »



So VA and CO aren't sure for Obama despite him leading every poll for the past month, but FL, NC and MO are sure for McCain despite trailing pretty much every poll for the past month?

Hack? Me?! Never!

No, in your case, just dishonest.  MO, FL and NC has been close, but all have had polls that has shown a tie or McCain ahead.

The polls mentioned in this thread give me great confidence in my despairing prediction - McCain will win Pennsylvania and the election, due to racism.

Ahem, Obama is still over 50%.

No, taking into account a reasonable Bradley Effect he is below McCain now, and anyway the trend is for him to be down by a couple of points by election day.

Unfortunately, Opebo may be right.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #71 on: November 01, 2008, 12:04:41 PM »

What this tells me...is that if PA is now only slightly Obama...then McCain is likely ahead in OH, MO, FL.

Missouri and Florida have nothing to do with Pennsylvania.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #72 on: November 01, 2008, 12:05:11 PM »

What this tells me...is that if PA is now only slightly Obama...then McCain is likely ahead in OH, MO, FL.
Except that he isn't...

We haven't had any new polls the last 48 hrs or so for Ohio or Florida...or even Virginia for that matter. Obama's lead was dwindling on October 28th...and it's November 1st. I want some Rasmussen/Strategic Vision/Mason-Dixon polls out of Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Missouri post-McCain surge.
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afleitch
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« Reply #73 on: November 01, 2008, 12:07:58 PM »

What this tells me...is that if PA is now only slightly Obama...then McCain is likely ahead in OH, MO, FL.
Except that he isn't...

We haven't had any new polls the last 48 hrs or so for Ohio or Florida...or even Virginia for that matter. Obama's lead was dwindling on October 28th...and it's November 1st. I want some Rasmussen/Strategic Vision/Mason-Dixon polls out of Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Missouri post-McCain surge.

The McCain surge has dampened if not fallen back during the last half of last week. Any new polls showing a 'state poll lag' (which I don't believe occurs as I've said before) would therefore not reflect the Obama climb.
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Meeker
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« Reply #74 on: November 01, 2008, 12:12:46 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2008, 12:16:45 PM by PPTE Meeker »

We also seem to be ignoring the glaring flaw in the poll's internals - there's no way Obama would suddenly drop 11 points amongst Democrats for no apparent reason.
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