Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer
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Author Topic: Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer  (Read 18572 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2008, 09:20:12 AM »

Well, I guess this makes my Nov 4th decision a little easier... NOVA or Central PA....



Ok... no present but an A for effort
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J. J.
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« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2008, 09:21:24 AM »

There is one thing.  

I made two two assumptions:

1.  There is a Bradley Effect.

2.  The net result will be 1-2 points.

I gave the state to Obama based on that.

In three of the four races that I looked at in 2006, it was arguably in the 3-4 point range.

If I were Obama, I'd be very worried that I was only at 75% in Phila.

"Miracle on the Monongahela?"   I'm still not calling it.

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Ty440
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« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2008, 09:27:57 AM »

There is one thing.  

I made two two assumptions:

1.  There is a Bradley Effect.

2.  The net result will be 1-2 points.

I gave the state to Obama based on that.

In three of the four races that I looked at in 2006, it was arguably in the 3-4 point range.

If I were Obama, I'd be very worried that I was only at 75% in Phila.

"Miracle on the Monongahela?"   I'm still not calling it.




May I channel Al Michaels.. Do you believe in miracles YES!!!!!.

In all seriousness it's still advantage Obama, Mccain hasn't lead in a PA poll since what spring?
But i think everyone can admit Mccain is surging here and has a very remote outside shot.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2008, 09:51:31 AM »

This is McCain's ceiling.
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Zarn
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« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2008, 10:04:43 AM »

It sounds more like Obama is falling rapidly from his high ceiling, almost like a ball bouncing off. Where is the ball going to be on Nov 4, and will it bounce back up enough (off the floor or furniture)?

I wonder if the Dow on next Monday would have an impact.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2008, 10:05:39 AM »


I wonder if the Dow on next Monday would have an impact.

For the last time, people don't vote based on the daily flunctuations of the DOW.
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afleitch
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« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2008, 10:10:19 AM »


I wonder if the Dow on next Monday would have an impact.

For the last time, people don't vote based on the daily flunctuations of the DOW.

I agree with the above - sometiumes you have to think outside of the box of the forum. No one gives a sh-t about the DOW - it's the two 'g's' Gas and Groceries.
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Franzl
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« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2008, 10:14:00 AM »


I wonder if the Dow on next Monday would have an impact.

For the last time, people don't vote based on the daily flunctuations of the DOW.

I agree with the above - sometiumes you have to think outside of the box of the forum. No one gives a sh-t about the DOW - it's the two 'g's' Gas and Groceries.

Could low gas prices be helping Mac, then?
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J. J.
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« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2008, 10:19:43 AM »

Obama has dropped 9 points on Rasmussen in the last 26 days in PA.  It's been a study decline, and it has been reflected in most of the other polls.

My Obama 1.5 margin prediction will be within a 3 point MOE.  I don't know which way.

I may have underestimated the Bradley Effect in PA if not nationally.
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afleitch
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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2008, 10:21:01 AM »

I just find this too reminiscent of the claim that Bush could really challenge in PA in 2004 and the genuine suprise, among some at least when Pennsylvania was called early.
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J. J.
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2008, 10:35:01 AM »

I just find this too reminiscent of the claim that Bush could really challenge in PA in 2004 and the genuine suprise, among some at least when Pennsylvania was called early.

I've been calling PA for Obama for about six weeks, but close.

I realize that if there is a Bradley Effect, and it's worse (in PA) than I thought, Obama might be in trouble.  The thing that really scares me is the 75% in Phila; that is low for Phila to start with. 

(Hint:  I really don't want there to be a bigger Bradley Effect than I thought.)
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afleitch
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2008, 10:41:26 AM »

I just find this too reminiscent of the claim that Bush could really challenge in PA in 2004 and the genuine suprise, among some at least when Pennsylvania was called early.

I've been calling PA for Obama for about six weeks, but close.

I realize that if there is a Bradley Effect, and it's worse (in PA) than I thought, Obama might be in trouble.  The thing that really scares me is the 75% in Phila; that is low for Phila to start with. 

(Hint:  I really don't want there to be a bigger Bradley Effect than I thought.)

The real fear here is of 'blinkered' vision affecting the few days of the campaign. Activists pour into PA etc yet on election night even if McCain wins it, neighbouring states fall to Obama and Obama still wins handsomely. Kerry's campaign put all it's chips on Ohio and it failed. I have a feeling that McCain may be doing the same thing - focusing not just money and visits on PA but having activists focus on their too. A bus of activists crossing the Ohio border or coming up from Virginia to focus on PA is a bus less for two states where they matter just as much.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2008, 10:47:19 AM »

PA is 1 point more GOP than the national average.  Now this is good news.
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Zarn
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« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2008, 10:52:21 AM »

On the Bradley effect: Why? It wouldn't mean the people are actually racist. It means they suspect others would view them as racists. Racists generally don't take care, when making 'racial'* remarks or taking 'race'* based stands.

With Dow, the only reason I would mention it is because we are nearing 10,000. It won't hit 10,000 before the election, but it could be close. Yes, I do realize that 10,000 is much bigger news than almost 10,000, but it doesn't mean people won't look at the numbers. Of course, going back under 9,000 could affect things, too.

I always figured low gas prices would help Obama, since he is offering less in the ways of more immediate results.

*I say 'race,' because humans seeing one another as different races is silly. Outside of being human, I couldn't even tell you what my race was. I guess I'm Hispanic (it seems to be a broad catergory)... maybe white (but I'm not "non-Hispanic white"). I have an Iroquois great grandmother, but that doesn't amount to anything (only 1/8). It's very confusing and seems pointless. Anyway, I think you get the point. Sorry, for the off topic rant.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2008, 10:53:52 AM »

There is a 5% MoE. That means Obama could be up by 9% or McCain could be up by 1%.
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Wall St. Wiz
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« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2008, 10:55:30 AM »

The tightening in PA has nothing to do with the daily fluctuations in the Dow LOL, I can't believe people here are saying this.  I think it's because of:

1) McCain has literally made PA his ground zero, either him or Palin are in the state almost every day.  I would bet he is spending more money in PA then any other state.

2) Murtha calling his own consituents racists and rednecks

3) Republicans repeatedly reminding the voters about Obama's "bitter clingers" comment

4) Obama had a terrible showing in the primary.  He outspent Hillary by a huge margin and campaigned there for 6 weeks and still lost by 10.

I still think its a lean Obama but he better be careful, if he takes it for granted he may end up regretting it.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #41 on: November 01, 2008, 10:57:08 AM »

PA is 1 point more GOP than the national average.  Now this is good news.

According to this one poll.

You people remember that this is just one poll... right? Just checking.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #42 on: November 01, 2008, 10:57:28 AM »

Another factor to keep in mind is that the GOP usually overpolls in this state.
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Zarn
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« Reply #43 on: November 01, 2008, 10:57:38 AM »

It is not the daily flucuations. It's the trend.
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Zarn
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« Reply #44 on: November 01, 2008, 10:58:15 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2008, 11:00:45 AM by Zarn »

Another factor to keep in mind is that the GOP usually overpolls in this state.

And Obama wouldn't overpoll in this state?

Also, Mason and Ras were very close in 2004.
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Franzl
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« Reply #45 on: November 01, 2008, 10:58:57 AM »

There is a 5% MoE. That means Obama could be up by 9% or McCain could be up by 1%.

wrong, Obama could be up by 14%, or McCain could be up by 6%, theoretically.
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Meeker
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« Reply #46 on: November 01, 2008, 11:02:32 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory
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Zarn
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« Reply #47 on: November 01, 2008, 11:04:22 AM »

I he can take PA, I like his NV chances.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #48 on: November 01, 2008, 11:06:06 AM »

Not that I think we'll lose Pennsylvania, but...



Obama victory

While McCain winning PA would worry me greatly - the one state like I said before, that worries me, is VA.

There has been virtually NO movement in the last fortnight, and if it's called early, and for McCain I have a feeling it'll be a LONG night, and spelling VERY bad news.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #49 on: November 01, 2008, 11:06:49 AM »

PA is 1 point more GOP than the national average.  Now this is good news.

According to this one poll.

You people remember that this is just one poll... right? Just checking.

Mason Dixon shows the same result.  It's been erratic lately, but at least Rasmussen backs him up.

If PA is this close, I think McCain may be carrying Ohio now.  He's been putting a lot of efforts into that state lately.
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