Last Chance for Bergen County Republicans

[DownWithTheLeft]

For the last few years it has been all hype every year that it is finally time for the Republicans to cut into the Democrats 7-0 advantage on the freeholder board in pivotal swing Bergen County.  The Republicans can attribute their recent statewide struggles at least in part to not being able to win safeground Bergen County.  Well, this year may finally be the year.  The Democrats are running three candidates, two ousted mayors and a newcomer.  In fact, Freeholder Bernadette McPherson garnered less than 30% of the vote in her election last year.  The Republicans have popular County Clerk Kathleen Donovan on the ticket and three well funded candidates.  If Bergen Republicans cannot break through this year, it might be the end for them in Bergen County for awhile, and possibly the entire state.  Thoughts?

[bullmoose88]

Why do you think Republicans have so much trouble in Bergen County and in New Jersey?

[Verily]

Why do you think Republicans have so much trouble in Bergen County and in New Jersey?

Well, a lot of it in Bergen County is that the county is changing, the big change of course being more Asians and Hispanics and fewer ultra-rich and conservative Catholics. Until 1996 it hadn't voted Democrat for President since 1964. Things reversed somewhat in 2004, due IMO to the 9/11 effect, but in 2000 it had shifted all the way to a 55-42 victory for Gore (with Nader taking 3%). It's just not the swing county it used to be, at least on the federal level.

Of course, you have to look at local effects, too; the Bergen GOP was probably hit hardest by the state GOP's collapse in the 1990s. They've been feuding since then, and bitter divides between social conservatives and fiscal conservatives as well as between political fiefdoms at the town level made rebuilding an essentially impossible task for a while, and probably still now.

Kathleen Donovan is reasonably popular--among those who know who she is. Which is maybe a few thousand people in a county of nearly a million. Of course, those few thousand are also those most likely to vote, so it's not quite as hopeless as it sounds. Still, I believe she's run for Freeholder before and been unsuccessful, which suggests to me that her chances of victory are pretty slim. She's mostly tolerated as the only county-wide elected Republican because the County Clerk is essentially a nonpartisan office.  And, of course, this being a Presidential year will only heighten partisanship in voting.

That said, there is some discontent with Bernadette McPherson, but I doubt it extends much beyond Rutherford and environs in terms of voting patterns. Which, given the 2007 results, would not be nearly enough to unseat a Freeholder. And voter turnout will be much higher in 2008 as a Presidential year, especially in areas such as Englewood and Hackensack (black and Hispanic) or Fort Lee and Palisades Park (Korean) which have no inclination to vote Republican. The Republicans' best chance to knock off Freeholders always comes in odd-numbered years, especially those without State Senate elections (such as 2009).

[DownWithTheLeft]

Why do you think Republicans have so much trouble in Bergen County and in New Jersey?

While I agree with Verily on his reasoning, I think management plays a huge role.  While Rob Ortiz has a decent job of trying build the party back up, the previous chair destroyed the party.  The biggest blow came in the last County Exec election when the party backed ultra-conservative Todd Caliguire for County Exec instead of the aforementioned popular Kathleen Donovan.  This was a major blow when Caliguire won as Donovan should have cruised to victory.  Ortiz has taken the smart move of trying to build up starting with municipal elections.  He claimed a victory in Rutherford last year as he said it was where the Dems building up started.  Hopefully we can pick off one freeholder seat at least and a few more municipal elections.

[DownWithTheLeft]

UPDATE:

Despite a challenge from "Real Bergen Dems", Ferriero's team of incumbents easily won by 3-1 margins.  A competitive race is on tap between 3 strong GOP candidates and 2 defeated mayors and a nobody.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I suppose the real question in Bergen is what sort of effect the indictments will have on the Bergen County Dems to fundraise.  The bottom line is that Bergen would not be a "safe D" county if Democrats did not have the kind of money to make it so.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I suppose the real question in Bergen is what sort of effect the indictments will have on the Bergen County Dems to fundraise.  The bottom line is that Bergen would not be a "safe D" county if Democrats did not have the kind of money to make it so.

As I suggest often, Bergen county is a great microcasm of the entire state.  Its not solid D in terms of running up 60%+ margins, but its solid D in that D's always win

[Verily]

UPDATE:

Despite a challenge from "Real Bergen Dems", Ferriero's team of incumbents easily won by 3-1 margins.  A competitive race is on tap between 3 strong GOP candidates and 2 defeated mayors and a nobody.

Yeah, boo...

But the Real Bergen Democrats only ran Freeholder and County Clerk candidates to get favorable ballot access; without them, they couldn't get a separate column for all of their candidates. I knew one of their Freeholder candidates, Aishaah Rasul, very well, and she knew she was a paper candidate.

Unfortunately, they had bad luck at the local level, too, losing a Councilman in Edgewater and failing to make gains in Bergenfield although they destroyed the Ferriero candidates in Englewood by 2-1 margins . The problem for the Real Bergen Democrats is that they have very little money, so operations are limited to a small area around Englewood (from Teaneck to Edgewater, basically). Which means they can't compete county-wide.

[DownWithTheLeft]

In a tough year for New Jersey Republicans, the highly touted (and favored) BCRs lost all three seats once again including to too defeated mayors, David Ganz (Fair Lawn) and Bernadette McPherson (Rutherford "Miss 29%")

Its over for us for a long time

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In a tough year for New Jersey Republicans, the highly touted (and favored) BCRs lost all three seats once again including to too defeated mayors, David Ganz (Fair Lawn) and Bernadette McPherson (Rutherford "Miss 29%")

Its over for us for a long time

I am sorry for you.

[DownWithTheLeft]

In a tough year for New Jersey Republicans, the highly touted (and favored) BCRs lost all three seats once again including to too defeated mayors, David Ganz (Fair Lawn) and Bernadette McPherson (Rutherford "Miss 29%")

Its over for us for a long time

I am sorry for you.

You have no idea

This means a county that ten years was a Republican bastion (we even voted Franks over Corzine eight years ago) remains 7-0 freeholder Dems and a Dem county exec.  If the GOP wants to have a shot in NJ, they need to start in Bergen and to a smaller extent Mommouth

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Just be glad that Kathleen Donovan won re-election as County Clerk.

And you know, Bergen Republicans may have actually been able to pick up seats last year had they not been completely and totally sabotaged by the inside.  When the Bergen County Democratic Organization has more influence over the Bergen GOP than Bergen Republicans do, that's a key sign to just pack it in right there.