The coming McCain Victory

[CARLHAYDEN]

Mr. Branch,

First, welcome to the forum.

Second, I must disagree with you in a couple of areas. 

I maintain that Obama's support is relatively "hard," and that he will end up with between 49 and 50% of the popular vote.

On the other hand, much of McCain's possible vote is very soft, and depending upon a number of factors he will get somewhere between 41 and 48% of the popular vote.

Nader is likely to take from 1 to 3% of the vote.

Barr is likely to take between 1 to 6% of the vote.

Not more than 1% of the vote will go to all other options.

The electorate not firmly in any camp is essentially (primarily) the sucessors to the 1996 Perot vote.  They won't vote for Obama, but are irritated at McCain.

If you look at the surveys you cited you will see the firmness of the Obama vote I cited, and the softness of the McCain vote.

Now, if McCain in the next few days were to both publicly brag about pushing through the bailout (and promising many more if elected President) and reiterates his support for amnesty for illegal aliens (he calls it "a path to citizenship") he will draw 41%, if he deeps his trap shut about these matters and raises the very real fears of a redistributionalist Obama, he may get as high as 48%.

Bottom line is McCain is going to lose, by how much is his choice.