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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  America's "Center Stack"
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Poll
Question: ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, and TX: Which goes to a Dem presidential candidate first?
#1
North Dakota
 
#2
South Dakota
 
#3
Nebraska
 
#4
Kansas
 
#5
Oklahoma
 
#6
Texas
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 52

Author Topic: America's "Center Stack"  (Read 3649 times)
Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
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« on: October 28, 2008, 06:54:43 pm »

The last one to go Democrat was Texas in 1976 (and in 1968).  The others haven't since 1964.
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Bob Dole
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2008, 06:55:23 pm »

South Dakota, or North Dakota.
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Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2008, 07:13:24 pm »

Totally off-topic but:

Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: +8.96

Are you a Huey Long fan by any chance?
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Bob Dole
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2008, 07:22:26 pm »

Totally off-topic but:

Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: +8.96

Are you a Huey Long fan by any chance?

I am a fan of Russell Long.

Huey Long, I'd rather not say.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2008, 05:21:31 pm »

He probably believes in a flat tax of like 60% and giving powers to ecclesiastical courts to have mandated video cameras in every home.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2008, 12:38:54 pm »

Oh. It's actually gotten a bit easier- Omaha in 2012.
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2008, 04:31:47 pm »

Are there any differences between North and South Dakota that might account for why some here thought that Obama had a pretty good chance at winning North Dakota? 
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phk
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« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2008, 06:33:59 pm »

Are there any differences between North and South Dakota that might account for why some here thought that Obama had a pretty good chance at winning North Dakota? 

ND has a lot of moderate Lutherans me thinks.


Btw, Clinton was damn close in SD in 1996. He should have put more effort in.
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ottermax
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« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2008, 08:00:49 pm »

Omaha just did this election, so does that count?
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2008, 12:10:18 am »

Omaha just did this election, so does that count?

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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2008, 12:35:30 am »


Omaha =/= Nebraska. I know what you mean, but Obama didn't win the state, though he did get an EV from it. This is notable in itself: before the election, I never thought I would live to see Maine or Nebraska split their EVs, because I thought I would die or the electoral college would be abolished before that would happen.

Of the states you list, North Dakota. Obama came close this time and could win in 2012 if he has a successful term. However, it's unlikely he would win one Dakota and not the other.
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opebo
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« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2008, 05:31:12 am »

Texas, which gives a hint at how far away this occurrence will be.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2008, 09:39:12 pm »

North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas, in 2012. Smiley
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2009, 12:25:36 am »

Greater Omaha (NE-02) of course went for Obama in 2008.

Texas.  Texas is by far the most urban of these states, and the one with the largest minority populations. (Native Americans seem very assimilated in Oklahoma, thank you). Basically, Texas is Kansas grafted onto Florida politically, and the first time that Florida goes for the Democrat by more than 6%, then so does Texas. 

Texas became conservative because the big landowners dominated the state's political life for about 115 years after the Civil War and ran things efficiently, with little corruption, and with much foresight. That kept government cheap.

But that is over, and Texas has some giant metro areas in which effective government is no longer cheap.  Dallas, Jefferson, Harris, Bexar, Travis, San Patricio, and El Paso Counties all went for Obama in 2008; Tarrant made a move in that direction as did some suburban counties surrounding Dallas and Houston. As the Mexican-American electorate grows more rapidly than the Texas population, the state will get close; as the state gets more urban, its population will become more cognizant of the fact that good urban and suburban government isn't cheap, and the usual GOP appeal of "low taxes" won't be so effective.

Sure, North Dakota and South Dakota were closer in 2008, but their political identities seem more stable. NE-01 (eastern Nebraska except for greater Omaha) could conceivably go to Obama in 2012, but that leaves NE-03, one of the most conservative districts in America, which ensures that the GOP will win the state at-large.  Kansas is... Kansas.  Oklahoma is the only state with two Senators whose political color is better described as black (fascist) than any other color. All counties in Oklahoma voted for John McCain (who was not a fascist, by the way).

 
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Antonio V
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« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2009, 04:22:03 am »

Certainly North Dakota.
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Mint
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« Reply #15 on: April 14, 2009, 12:05:47 pm »

North Dakota.

Texas could become a swing state in the 2020s if current trends continue.
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2009, 01:08:26 pm »

Ehhh.... I could see North Dakota flipping if Obama has a good first term.  I mean, how many minds would he have to change from last November?  About 14,000?  That can happen. 

Side note:  At the same time, what the heck do North Dakotans really care about?  I guess the economy  Those northern plains and mountain states (ND, SD, MT) seem so secluded up and so desolate I really can't pinpoint what issues are important to them. 
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2009, 01:14:57 pm »

Totally off-topic but:

Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: +8.96

Are you a Huey Long fan by any chance?

I am a fan of Russell Long.

Huey Long, I'd rather not say.

This post is currently followed by this signature:



“I’m for the poor man – all poor men, black and white, they all gotta have a chance.” - Governor and Senator Huey Long (D - LA)



Huey Long, one of America's greatest unsung heroes
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change08
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« Reply #18 on: April 14, 2009, 02:02:22 pm »

Are there any differences between North and South Dakota that might account for why some here thought that Obama had a pretty good chance at winning North Dakota? 

ND has a lot of moderate Lutherans me thinks.


Btw, Clinton was damn close in SD in 1996. He should have put more effort in.

No candidate would for 3 electoral votes unless the election was going to be unbelievably close.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: April 14, 2009, 04:28:42 pm »

Are there any differences between North and South Dakota that might account for why some here thought that Obama had a pretty good chance at winning North Dakota? 

ND has a lot of moderate Lutherans me thinks.


Btw, Clinton was damn close in SD in 1996. He should have put more effort in.

No candidate would for 3 electoral votes unless the election was going to be unbelievably close.

To give some idea:

Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota seem politically similar. Between them they comprise nine electoral votes. They are logistical nightmares for national campaigning  due to their small populations, long distances, and few population centers -- too few yellow-orange spaces on a road atlas, and not very impressive ones. Any candidate who wants to reach a large number of people in these states will have to make large numbers of stops in small cities of 20,000 or so -- which isn't very efficient.

Colorado has those 9 electoral votes in a much smaller area and with well-defined urban areas that allow efficient campaigning: Denver, Pueblo, and Colorado Springs.  Washington has 11 electoral votes and most of its population in greater Seattle-Tacoma with a lesser center in Spokane. Minnesota has 10 electoral votes, and one can do most of his campaigning in the Twin Cities with short excursions to places like Duluth, Rochester, and Mankato.
Efficiency is always tempting, and it is usually a virtue. Nobody would put much effort into winning South Dakota instead of Colorado, North Dakota instead of Minnesota. or Montana instead of Washington. That's a discussion of the chances of states close to one or another part of one of those three states in the Northern Plains. These states are possible targets if nearly everything else is a foregone conclusion -- but even as polarized as America was in its voting (by states) as it has been since 1900 and with so many states as foregone conclusions in what could easily have been a close election, there were still easier targets for campaigns -- states richer in electoral votes (VA, OH, IN, MO, FL, NC, GA, CO) as other states went into the pool of foregone conclusions.

Should there ever be an election in which both sides have sewn up 265 electoral votes by 6%+ or larger margins late, then Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota are in play if their electoral votes aren't sewn up. Some scenarios might have allowed that in 2008 -- but each of the battleground states of the above paragraph were bigger prizes and easier places in which to campaign because they have more and bigger areas of yellow-orange spaces on a typical road map.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #20 on: April 14, 2009, 04:57:27 pm »

North Dakota.
In Texas, it depends. If Obama lets all the illegals become citizens, Texas will go to a toss-up state, and Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona will go solid Democrat.
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska will only vote Obama if he gets 500+ electoral votes
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change08
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« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2009, 05:56:39 pm »

Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska will only vote Obama if he gets 500+ electoral votes


Even then, Oklahoma is a stretch.
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« Reply #22 on: April 14, 2009, 06:16:10 pm »

ND and SD are similar in presidential politics. They both went by about the same margin (8-9 points) to McCain in 2008. So, I would probably say either ND or SD--but most likely, they either will both go Democrat, or neither will.
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