Elections 1948-2000 without 3rd Parties/Independents

[Jacobus]

I did my own analysis of past results, historical polling, etc. to estimate how much of a "spoiler" effect 3rd party and independent candidates might have had. Here are my conclusions.

2000 Official Results
Bush R 271
Gore D 267

2000 Results without Nader
Gore D 296
Bush R 242

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1996 Actual
Clinton D 379
Dole R 159

1996 without Perot
Clinton D 367
Dole R 171

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1992 Actual
Clinton D 370
Bush R 168

1992 without Perot
Clinton D 338
Bush R 200

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1980 Actual
Reagan R 489
Carter D 49

1980 without Anderson
Reagan R 465
Carter D 73

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1976 Actual
Carter D 297
Ford R 241

1976 without McCarthy
Carter D 303
Ford R 235
(Oregon flips to Carter)
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1968 Actual
Nixon R 302
Humphrey D 191
G Wallace AIP 45

1968 without G Wallace
Nixon R 372
Humphrey D 166

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1948 Actual
Truman D 304
Dewey R 189
Thurmond SRD 38

1948 without Thurmond and H Wallace
Truman D 389
Dewey R 142

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Have also been thinking about 1912, but that's another post.

[Хahar 🤔]

Very interesting. Bravo.

[LiberalLibertarian]

Thanks for the analysis. I hope it's correct (which I have no reason to beleive that it wouldn't be), and thank you for setting it in stone. It's interesting to see everything on paper. Nader was a good candidate, but think how much better Gore would've been. And I'm shocked that had Wallace not been there Humphrey would've won. Same for Perot in '92. Thanks for the info.