FL-OH: LA Times Poll - Obama up
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  FL-OH: LA Times Poll - Obama up 		« previous next »
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Author Topic: FL-OH: LA Times Poll - Obama up  (Read 1150 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« on: October 28, 2008, 04:36:36 PM »
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll29-2008oct29,0,7008892.story

Toplines:

Florida:
Obama 50
McCain 43

Ohio:

Obama 49
McCain 40
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2008, 04:37:11 PM »
The LA Times isn't the most accurate pollster.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2008, 04:38:36 PM »
Why is the LA Times polling FL and OH?
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2008, 04:39:18 PM »
Quote from: Sen. DWTL on October 28, 2008, 04:38:36 PM
Why is the LA Times polling FL and OH?
It's not like they're any better polling California
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MR maverick
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2008, 05:14:15 PM »
Quote from: Sen. DWTL on October 28, 2008, 04:38:36 PM
Why is the LA Times polling FL and OH?

Good question?
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2008, 05:17:20 PM »
I have to trust Nate Silver not to weight these polls high.  However, considering how high he weighted the Big Ten polls, I can't predict.
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Reds4
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2008, 05:18:52 PM »
LA Times state polls are notoriously bad. Obama is certainly not ahead by 7 or 9 in these two states right now.
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JohnCA246
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2008, 05:19:41 PM »
I'm sure everyone here was on their edge of their seat waiting for the results of this one....

Still Id rather be up in every poll than down.  Every ARG has it's day....
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MR maverick
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2008, 05:22:15 PM »
Poll rating site by 2012 lets hope.

Iam getting sick of all these crap polls.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2008, 05:50:20 PM »
LA Times is in ARG/IA territory.
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MR maverick
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2008, 05:58:13 PM »
Somebody  posted this  crap poll .. go figure
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2008, 06:13:29 PM »
Retarded numbers.  Next.
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2008, 06:25:10 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on October 28, 2008, 05:17:20 PM
I have to trust Nate Silver not to weight these polls high.  However, considering how high he weighted the Big Ten polls, I can't predict.

538 shouldn't (and doesn't) weight polls based on how reasonable they look, or based on whether or not a pollster seems to be coming out with garbage results.  Selecting your own outliers and giving them a lower weight them is a recipe for confirmation bias. 

He does give them a lower weight than most polls (and in fact a lower weight the Big Ten polls, which were given the weight of a completely unknown pollster coming out with their first polls), but he doesn't discount them entirely. 

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