Who is reponsible for McCain's imminent election loss ?

[pbrower2a]

1. GEORGE W. BUSH.

Any Republican candidate had to distance himself as much as possible -- and John McCain seemed most likely to do so. He was no wing-nut right-winger. He promised to be bi-partisan and recognized that the Democrats would probably hold majorities in both Houses of Congress.

Throughout the summer, McCain was doing better than the GOP as a whole. Then things fell apart.

2. BAD CAMPAIGN STRATEGY.

Granted, things wouldn't have been easy for any Republican because of the Blue Firewall (that probably became more solid because of Dubya's practices, but that's under the first category anyway) of states that looked as if they would vote for any Democrat because they hadn't voted for a Republican nominee since at least 1988. McCain had to win practically everything else to win. He should have run a truly national campaign to cut into Obama support nationwide.

Around September 1, such states as Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia were all split roughly 50-50.  Any one of them would have won the campaign for Obama, and as events showed, 7 of the 8 went for Obama. To cut into the chance of winning all of them McCain would have needed to cut into Obama support nationwide. It's not as if those states formed a political monolith.

Take out two of those states (Indiana because Obama wasn't going to win it without winning Ohio, and North Carolina because Obama wasn't going to win it without winning Virginia as well), and the chance of a McCain victory was about one in 64.

3. THE SHRINKING CONSERVATIVE "BASE"

Demographics indicated clearly that the Religious Right was getting older and smaller. Add to that the number of people who trust Corporate America to serve people other than executives and tycoons... and the GOP loses perhaps 4% of the vote that it got in 2004 with respect to the nation as a whole.

The youngest voters were fleeing the Right. No candidate can win by neglecting the "moderate" vote. 

4. THE GOP NATIONAL CONVENTION

Whatever image one might have had of McCain as a moderate leading a political party that could follow him evaporated. The Hard Right still controlled the GOP and so showed through its hammering on the old right-wing anti-labor, anti-environment, pro-war, religious fundamentalist agenda. If one voted for McCain one wouldn't know what one got. Sure, there was a bump in support of the GOP... only to vanish almost overnight.

5. SARAH PALIN

I don't know how McCain picked her -- or whether she was his first choice. She left no question that she lacked the judgment appropriate for a President in the event of the not-so-unthinkable. She mangled logic as if she were squeezing a flimsy object.  She became a gaffe machine. She made claims to expertise that utterly imploded.  She had to be put on a short leash... and she typically ended up in the role of a warm-up comedian for the big act.  Unlike Obama and Biden, who could be in two places at once, McCain and Palin couldn't. That made campaigning less efficient and effective in itself. Add to that -- her family wasn't particularly wholesome.

Think about it: who was the last successful Presidential or Vice-Presidential candidate to have a daughter with a child out of wedlock?  No Third-Party types, please. If she couldn't keep her daughter from getting knocked up while unmarried, then what does that say about her ability to lead?

6. THE HISPANIC VOTE

The Republicans had been making considerable progress in winning Hispanic votes to their side... and the right-wing nativists got their say in the GOP.  That effectively threw away thirty years of electoral progress among a fast-growing minority down the drain.

Note also that Mexican-American voters tend to be young and tend to buy houses at lower incomes than do members of other groups. Upside-down mortgages hit Mexican-Americans  hard... which is an economic effect, to be sure to be discussed below -- but that caused Nevada to blow up in the faces of the GOP.   


7. THE ECONOMIC MELTDOWN

McCain tried to make efforts to swing such states as New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire... but such efforts failed.  Most of the swing states were really close... until the financial system imploded. Nevada and Colorado blew up for the Republicans as the real estate meltdown left many young homeowners with upside-down mortgages. Florida, with its elderly population, seemed likely to be a McCain win -- until stock values plummeted and retirement income got shaky and elderly voters started swinging toward Obama. Ohio and Indiana got hit hard by the deterioration of heavy industry.

That was the sockdolager -- the difference between a close loss and a not-so-close loss.