Rasmussen NH and IA: Obama leads

[Sam Spade]

NH
R’s 90% McCain- 10% Obama
D’s 91% Obama- 5% McCain
I’s 51% Obama- 42% McCain

IA
R’s 95% McCain- 1% Obama
D’s 91% Obama- 7% McCain
I’s 46% Obama- 44% McCain

NH looks a bit too Republican.  I'd increase Obama's numbers by a point or two.

[TheresNoMoney]

NH
R’s 90% McCain- 10% Obama
D’s 91% Obama- 5% McCain
I’s 51% Obama- 42% McCain

I reweighted the numbers based on NH voter registration and I get:

Obama    50.69%
McCain    45.41%

It only adds a point to his advantage.

I do think that Democratic turnout will be higher than Republican turnout and that Obama will win independents by more than 9%.  Other polls have shown him with a 20% lead among indies in NH.

[TheGlobalizer]

RAS NH
Obama 50%(-3)
McCain 46%(+3)

RAS IA
Obama 52%(+1)
McCain 44%(+1)

Wow, sweet numbers in NH.

[classical liberal]

NH
R's 90% McCain- 10% Obama
D's 91% Obama- 5% McCain
I's 51% Obama- 42% McCain

I reweighted the numbers based on NH voter registration and I get:

Obama    50.69%
McCain    45.41%

It only adds a point to his advantage.

I do think that Democratic turnout will be higher than Republican turnout and that Obama will win independents by more than 9%.  Other polls have shown him with a 20% lead among indies in NH.

The question is whether that 20% lead was 50-30 or 60-40.  A 50-30 lead just means that McCain's support is that much softer than Obama's, which we already knew to be true in intent though not in extent; Obama is likely already polling at or just below his ceiling of support (barring a big event in the next 2 weeks).

[RJ]

IA
R’s 95% McCain- 1% Obama
D’s 91% Obama- 7% McCain
I’s 46% Obama- 44% McCain

Anyone else think these numbers are out of whack? Obama only up 2 among I's? Only 1% of the Republican vote? Not so sure here.

I think Rasmussen is becoming the Bizarro version of PPP(or vice versa.)

[TheGlobalizer]

IA
R’s 95% McCain- 1% Obama
D’s 91% Obama- 7% McCain
I’s 46% Obama- 44% McCain

Anyone else think these numbers are out of whack? Obama only up 2 among I's? Only 1% of the Republican vote? Not so sure here.

I think Rasmussen is becoming the Bizarro version of PPP(or vice versa.)

Probably a little off, but Iowa has been a largely red state in the past few years, so I'd expect a fair share of the independents to be R-leaning.

[JohnCA246]

NH can do funny things to Obama.  And MCcain.