FL/OH/PA: Quinnipiac: None of us are swing states

[J. J.]

Actually, Tokar, Q was 6 points off for Casey in 2006 and about 7.5 off the margin.  Muhlenburg, their general poll, was more off actually with the same gap as Zogby.

Keystone (which I thing is F & M) came closest.

[tokar]

Actually, Tokar, Q was 6 points off for Casey in 2006 and about 7.5 off the margin.  Muhlenburg, their general poll, was more off actually with the same gap as Zogby.

Keystone (which I thing is F & M) came closest.

I think I made pretty clear in my post that I was not trying to show that the margins were accurate, rather the TRENDS were correct.

You are fool to take these margins in the polls as "predictors" for the actual margin of victory.

Again, I don't think pollsters are trying to accurately predict the margin of victory, rather they are making polls to gauge the temperature of the race.  And right now the temperature says STRONG OBAMA, and every pollster is showing this exact trend.

If pollsters were out there to accurately predict the exact margin of victory they would do all their polling internally and then on the last day they would release a poll.  The fact that pollsters release polls like every 3 days should be a pretty clear indication that polls are meant to be used as a temperature gauge.

If the actual margin ends up being +7, +8 or even as high as +15, it pretty much shows the pollsters were all correct in identifying PA is STRONG OBAMA.

Again, it would be one thing if Quinnipiac was polling PA at +20 Obama or +20 McCain right now.  But with ALL...OTHER...POLLING...OUTLETS polling PA at +10 Obama I think Quinnipiac is doing a good job of gauging the race as it is.

[TheGlobalizer]

Let's let Tokar have his pro-Obama numbers. 

[tokar]

Let's let Tokar have his pro-Obama numbers. 

Considering they are in line with the rest of pollsters, I will take them.

[J. J.]

Let's let Tokar have his pro-Obama numbers. 

Considering they are in line with the rest of pollsters, I will take them.

Actually, the rest of pollsters have shown a decline for Obama in PA.  Some of them are well out of the MOE.

[tokar]

Let's let Tokar have his pro-Obama numbers. 

Considering they are in line with the rest of pollsters, I will take them.

Actually, the rest of pollsters have shown a decline for Obama in PA.  Some of them are well out of the MOE.

Its not even worth arguing with you.  You obviously can't read polls or trends.  If you seriously can not read that the polls have been, and still are "strong Obama" then you are hopeless.