Unemployment by state

[opebo]

I'm still driving past help wanted signs all the time.

Surely even you realize how irrelevant that is, deadman.  Any job advertised by a 'help wanted' sign does not pay enough to live upon.  Those are minimum wage jobs, which produce only human misery and degredation - of course they are produced in plenty by our political/economic arrangement.

[dead0man]

I'm still driving past help wanted signs all the time.

Surely even you realize how irrelevant that is, deadman.  Any job advertised by a 'help wanted' sign does not pay enough to live upon.  Those are minimum wage jobs, which produce only human misery and degredation - of course they are produced in plenty by our political/economic arrangement.

Are Detroit and Providence equally as full of help wanted signs?  You don't think that it's a sign of a better job market and lower unemployment?  Me thinks you may have read a bit too much into my post.


(and nobody makes minimum wage in Omaha...even retards and 16 year olds can find better by walking down the street to the next fast food joint or call center)

[Linus Van Pelt]

Counties (12-month-average):

Does anyone know if the actual ground-level data collection is done by the BLS or whether it's some state agencies that theoretically use the same methodology but maybe, in fact, don't? A few of the state lines on the map seem a little suspicious:
- NW Illinois vs. SW Wisconsin & E Iowa, even the manufacturing-heavy parts of the latter two
- E Kentucky vs. S West Virginia
- N Alabama vs. all its neighbors (I mean, Huntsville aircraft/defence will account for some of this, but such a big difference right at the state lines?
- the horizontal line between Mississippi & Louisiana

[jimrtex]

Does anyone know if the actual ground-level data collection is done by the BLS or whether it's some state agencies that theoretically use the same methodology but maybe, in fact, don't? A few of the state lines on the map seem a little suspicious:
- NW Illinois vs. SW Wisconsin & E Iowa, even the manufacturing-heavy parts of the latter two
- E Kentucky vs. S West Virginia
- N Alabama vs. all its neighbors (I mean, Huntsville aircraft/defence will account for some of this, but such a big difference right at the state lines?
- the horizontal line between Mississippi & Louisiana

BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics -Estimation Methodology

The national unemployment rate is based on the Current Population Survey which is conducted for the BLS by the Census Bureau.  It is based on 50,000 households surveyed monthly.  I think that it is a sliding sample, with new housing units added each month, and old ones removed.  My sister used to be a surveyor, and she had to collect data each month.  In one case, a house had burned down, and she had to go check each month to confirm that no one lived there.  The advantage of the CPS is that it provides a better measure of the population, including those who are employed; vs. unemployment claims.

At one time the unemployment rate for large states was based on the CPS, but no longer.  And the CPS is too small for small areas.  In a county of 200,000 it would only amount to about 30 people.   To the extent I understand the above, it is based on a state unemployment claims, and also state-based employment models, and then controlled to the CPS.

Some of the areas you mentioned might be legit.

The Tennessee River dips into Alabama between Georgia and Mississippi, so that there is little east-west effect.   Chattanooga is offset a little to the east of the AL/GA border and it appears to be red rather than purple.  The whole swath trhough Alabama looks questionable but it sort of follows the cities Huntsville-Gadsden-Birmingham-Tuscaloosa-Mobile-Dothan.   Mobile is also low.  So perhaps there is something odd about Alabama's model for cities.

There is more coal mining in West Virginia than Kentucky.  If a mine shuts down, the people are going to move.  You can't collect unemployment for years, waiting for a mine to re-open.  If a mine does open, people will move back.

Much of the Louisiana area is suburban New Orleans, and could actually be seeing more growth because it didn't get flooded much.  There are actually a few counties right on the border that look more like SW Mississippi which has no cities.  Further west, you are in Baton Rouge which has had a big increase in population post-Katrina.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Counties (12-month-average):

Does anyone know if the actual ground-level data collection is done by the BLS or whether it's some state agencies that theoretically use the same methodology but maybe, in fact, don't? A few of the state lines on the map seem a little suspicious:
- NW Illinois vs. SW Wisconsin & E Iowa, even the manufacturing-heavy parts of the latter two
- E Kentucky vs. S West Virginia
- N Alabama vs. all its neighbors (I mean, Huntsville aircraft/defence will account for some of this, but such a big difference right at the state lines?
- the horizontal line between Mississippi & Louisiana

Michigan Pretty much sucks overall.

[dead0man]

..and it's hard to get a job there too!

[Tender Branson]

November 2008:

1    WYOMING     3.2
2    NORTH DAKOTA    3.3
3    SOUTH DAKOTA    3.4
4    NEBRASKA    3.7
4    UTAH    3.7
6    IOWA    4.3
6    NEW HAMPSHIRE    4.3
6    NEW MEXICO    4.3
9    WEST VIRGINIA    4.6
10    OKLAHOMA    4.7
11    VIRGINIA    4.8
12    HAWAII    4.9
12    KANSAS    4.9
12    MONTANA    4.9
15    LOUISIANA    5.3
15    MARYLAND    5.3
17    DELAWARE    5.6
17    WISCONSIN    5.6
19    ARKANSAS    5.7
19    IDAHO    5.7
19    TEXAS    5.7
19    VERMONT    5.7
23    COLORADO    5.8
24    MASSACHUSETTS    5.9
25    ALABAMA    6.1
25    NEW JERSEY    6.1
25    NEW YORK    6.1
25    PENNSYLVANIA    6.1
29    ARIZONA    6.3
29    MAINE    6.3
31    MINNESOTA    6.4
31    WASHINGTON    6.4
33    CONNECTICUT    6.6
34    MISSOURI    6.7
35    TENNESSEE    6.9
36    KENTUCKY    7.0
37    INDIANA    7.1
38    MISSISSIPPI    7.2
39    ALASKA    7.3
39    FLORIDA    7.3
39    ILLINOIS    7.3
39    OHIO    7.3
43    GEORGIA    7.5
44    NORTH CAROLINA    7.9
45    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA    8.0
45    NEVADA    8.0
47    OREGON    8.1
48    CALIFORNIA    8.4
48    SOUTH CAROLINA    8.4
50    RHODE ISLAND    9.3
51    MICHIGAN    9.6

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why do they even bother to release these figures when everyone knows that they're a sick joke [qm].

O.K.

They do have a partial use. They can tell us where jobs are being lost right now and where there is a very unstable (different to "very shitty", though generally related) labour market, but they tell us very little about the pattern of unemployment itself. Where bist the blackspots [qm]. You can't actually tell from those figures.

[Storebought]

The Iowa/Illinois contrast just seems entirely unreal.

And what happened to Georgia? It was neither a housing bubble state nor a car-making state.

[Tender Branson]

December 2008:

1    WYOMING     3.4
2    NORTH DAKOTA    3.5
3    SOUTH DAKOTA    3.9
4    NEBRASKA    4.0
5    UTAH    4.3
6    IOWA    4.6
6    NEW HAMPSHIRE    4.6
8    NEW MEXICO    4.9
8    OKLAHOMA    4.9
8    WEST VIRGINIA    4.9
11    KANSAS    5.2
12    MONTANA    5.4
12    VIRGINIA    5.4
14    HAWAII    5.5
15    MARYLAND    5.8
16    LOUISIANA    5.9
17    TEXAS    6.0
18    COLORADO    6.1
19    ARKANSAS    6.2
19    DELAWARE    6.2
19    WISCONSIN    6.2
22    IDAHO    6.4
22    VERMONT    6.4
24    ALABAMA    6.7
24    PENNSYLVANIA    6.7
26    ARIZONA    6.9
26    MASSACHUSETTS    6.9
26    MINNESOTA    6.9
29    MAINE    7.0
29    NEW YORK    7.0
31    CONNECTICUT    7.1
31    NEW JERSEY    7.1
31    WASHINGTON    7.1
34    MISSOURI    7.3
35    ALASKA    7.5
36    ILLINOIS    7.6
37    KENTUCKY    7.8
37    OHIO    7.8
39    TENNESSEE    7.9
40    MISSISSIPPI    8.0
41    FLORIDA    8.1
41    GEORGIA    8.1
43    INDIANA    8.2
44    NORTH CAROLINA    8.7
45    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA    8.8
46    OREGON    9.0
47    NEVADA    9.1
48    CALIFORNIA    9.3
49    SOUTH CAROLINA    9.5
50    RHODE ISLAND    10.0
51    MICHIGAN    10.6

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

California's 0.9% gain wasn't enough for it to stay tied for 3rd place? Amazing.

[Franzl]

poor Michigan

[Verily]

I can't decide what the proper comment on West Virginia's location is, so I'll just laugh.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I can't decide what the proper comment on West Virginia's location is, so I'll just laugh.

The low unemployment states tend to get way more money from the federal government than they send there. Damn deadwood.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Virginia certainly isn't a low unemployment state. Let's just say that it's position on the list shows quite how much of a joke official unemployment statistics are...

[Ban my account ffs!]

The plains have low unemployment because:

1)  They have a very low proportion of workers to retirees compared to other regions.  (Most potential workers have left)
2)  It is mostly agricultural work.  High food and oil prices have led to a boone in those industries and have put people to work.

Last time we were in such a situation we simply lowered tariffs and started buying cheap foreign imported goods.  This time there isn't another 3rd world to be opened up.. at least not one with a somewhat stable political system.. thus food prices have skyrocketed along with energy prices and suddenly it has become economical again to produce our own food and energy.

[War on Want]

The plains have low unemployment because:

1)  They have a very low proportion of workers to retirees compared to other regions.  (Most potential workers have left)
2)  It is mostly agricultural work.  High food and oil prices have led to a boone in those industries and have put people to work.

Last time we were in such a situation we simply lowered tariffs and started buying cheap foreign imported goods.  This time there isn't another 3rd world to be opened up.. at least not one with a somewhat stable political system.. thus food prices have skyrocketed along with energy prices and suddenly it has become economical again to produce our own food and energy.

Isn't the deflation going to start to hurt prices in agriculutral areas soon though?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

West Virginia certainly isn't a low unemployment state. Let's just say that it's position on the list shows quite how much of a joke official unemployment statistics are...

Of course it's not a low unemployment state, and the statistics are a joke, but they probably have a real unemployment below the national average thanks to all of the federal spending there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Virginia certainly isn't a low unemployment state. Let's just say that it's position on the list shows quite how much of a joke official unemployment statistics are...

Of course it's not a low unemployment state, and the statistics are a joke, but they probably have a real unemployment below the national average thanks to all of the federal spending there.

Employment rate in WV for the past few years has been around 50%; U.S average is like 60%.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The plains have low unemployment because:

1)  They have a very low proportion of workers to retirees compared to other regions.  (Most potential workers have left)
2)  It is mostly agricultural work.  High food and oil prices have led to a boone in those industries and have put people to work.

Last time we were in such a situation we simply lowered tariffs and started buying cheap foreign imported goods.  This time there isn't another 3rd world to be opened up.. at least not one with a somewhat stable political system.. thus food prices have skyrocketed along with energy prices and suddenly it has become economical again to produce our own food and energy.

Isn't the deflation going to start to hurt prices in agriculutral areas soon though?

Yes.  It will.

Look for beef prices to drop in the very near future and then you will see a significant rise.. just watch.

We've had a very nasty winter up here and farmers can't get enough hay to feed their herds.  They are selling cows 2 or 3 years ahead of schedule to the slaughterhouses.

That will undoubtedly hurt them as well.

The main thing here is that unemployment rates are not the best indicator of economic activity in the plains.  Decades of decline have sent the working age population to the cities, so you have a population that is much older than elsewhere.  When food prices go up, farmers plant more... and jobs are created.. jobs that have to be imported because you don't have all the farm kids to do the work anymore.

But those jobs will dry up again when prices come back down and the unemployment rate will rise... but again they will still be lower than elsewhere because retirees don't count in that number.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

West Virginia certainly isn't a low unemployment state. Let's just say that it's position on the list shows quite how much of a joke official unemployment statistics are...

Of course it's not a low unemployment state, and the statistics are a joke, but they probably have a real unemployment below the national average thanks to all of the federal spending there.

Employment rate in WV for the past few years has been around 50%; U.S average is like 60%.

Real unemployment isn't 100%-employment, there are obviously people without a job who don't want one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Virginia certainly isn't a low unemployment state. Let's just say that it's position on the list shows quite how much of a joke official unemployment statistics are...

Of course it's not a low unemployment state, and the statistics are a joke, but they probably have a real unemployment below the national average thanks to all of the federal spending there.

Employment rate in WV for the past few years has been around 50%; U.S average is like 60%.

Real unemployment isn't 100%-employment, there are obviously people without a job who don't want one.

Obviously. But there's no reason to assume that this would be concentrated to such an extreme degree in WV. Especially not when there are good reasons to assume that there are extremely high levels of structural unemployment in parts of the state.

[CARLHAYDEN]

West Virginia certainly isn't a low unemployment state. Let's just say that it's position on the list shows quite how much of a joke official unemployment statistics are...

Of course it's not a low unemployment state, and the statistics are a joke, but they probably have a real unemployment below the national average thanks to all of the federal spending there.

Employment rate in WV for the past few years has been around 50%; U.S average is like 60%.

Real unemployment isn't 100%-employment, there are obviously people without a job who don't want one.

Exactly!

[bullmoose88]

West Virginia certainly isn't a low unemployment state. Let's just say that it's position on the list shows quite how much of a joke official unemployment statistics are...

Of course it's not a low unemployment state, and the statistics are a joke, but they probably have a real unemployment below the national average thanks to all of the federal spending there.

Employment rate in WV for the past few years has been around 50%; U.S average is like 60%.

Real unemployment isn't 100%-employment, there are obviously people without a job who don't want one.

Exactly!

Fernie and Carl are right...(oh jesus...i feel like we've just seen one of the signs of the apoycalpse)

But how are we to define unemployment...those seeking work (full, or part time too) but cannot find any...are we to include underemployed as well? Should we?  Could be problematic.

[Sam Spade]

West Virginia certainly isn't a low unemployment state. Let's just say that it's position on the list shows quite how much of a joke official unemployment statistics are...

Of course it's not a low unemployment state, and the statistics are a joke, but they probably have a real unemployment below the national average thanks to all of the federal spending there.

Employment rate in WV for the past few years has been around 50%; U.S average is like 60%.

Real unemployment isn't 100%-employment, there are obviously people without a job who don't want one.

Exactly!

Fernie and Carl are right...(oh jesus...i feel like we've just seen one of the signs of the apoycalpse)

But how are we to define unemployment...those seeking work (full, or part time too) but cannot find any...are we to include underemployed as well? Should we?  Could be problematic.

U6 is still the best measure of the ones we've got.  Not perfect, but it's still better than the other attempts I've seen, and obviously better than U3.