Which is more likely for mccain: Win PA or win VA+CO
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  Which is more likely for mccain: Win PA or win VA+CO
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Question: McCain is more likely to win
#1
PA
 
#2
VA and CO
 
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Total Voters: 37

Author Topic: Which is more likely for mccain: Win PA or win VA+CO  (Read 1568 times)
Likely Voter
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« on: October 22, 2008, 12:22:54 PM »

It appears from recent moves that the McCain campaign is looking to get to 252 by winning:
OH, FL, IN, MO, NC & NV

and then to go over the top they have two options
1. win CO AND VA (for a total of 274)
2. win PA (for a total of 273)

Recent reports suggest that they are going for plan B and pulling some money from CO to go into PA. Of course he is behind in VA, CO and PA so both strategies are long shots. But this is all he has left. So which one would you push.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2008, 12:25:42 PM »

Option 2
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2008, 12:58:50 PM »

Chuck Todd weighed in on this today at First Read
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IA seems hopeless and it would only help in the case of a loss of only CO. It isnt enough to offset a loss in VA (even if McCain holds CO). NH and IA would be enough to offset a loss in VA (but not both CO and VA).
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2008, 01:03:15 PM »

at this point, Pennsylvania. McCain has let Obama campaign circles around him in Virginia, and his campaign basically flipped off NoVA. Colorado is going to be uphill for him; he hasn't led there since his post-RNC surge. A concerted attack on Wright, Ayers, and "socialism" has at least a plausible chance of working in Pennsylvania.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2008, 01:04:05 PM »

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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2008, 01:04:48 PM »

I strongly believe option 1.

If the states were voting today, I would say option 2.  But the fact is, Colorado IS voting today while Pennsylvania is not.

Pennsylvania offers a large number of potential swing voters, no early-voting, and a strong McCain organization.  Colorado is the opposite.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2008, 01:19:57 PM »

Option 2
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TomC
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2008, 02:38:59 PM »

I strongly believe option 1.

If the states were voting today, I would say option 2.  But the fact is, Colorado IS voting today while Pennsylvania is not.

Pennsylvania offers a large number of potential swing voters, no early-voting, and a strong McCain organization.  Colorado is the opposite.

Yes, that makes a lot of sense. And also explains why Obama is still there.
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2008, 02:43:19 PM »

Option 2. He won't take PA; they never do. They (Republicans) come so close sometimes, but there has to be a magical force of sorts at work there that keeps them from winning. He's not going to get Colorado, either, but if he wants to try to finish with a respectable 265 EVs, go for VA.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2008, 02:46:03 PM »

VA+CO, but not by much.
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tokar
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2008, 02:49:09 PM »


+1 unfortunately.

He has announced a pullback in ad spending in CO, and VA is like...ultra blue.  How a state polling +30 or more for their democratic senator wouldnt at least go Obama+1 is beyond me.

Thats not to say I think PA goes red, just I think Nate Silver's 10,000 simulations model would probably show more instances of PA victory vs CO+VA victory.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2008, 02:49:42 PM »

There are a couple of new stories on the PA strategy:
Politico: McCain's Path To Victory Goes Through PA
538: McCain Brings Hope To PA

It seems that they are very serious about the PA strategy. It is hard to say that it is more of a longshot than winning both VA and CO, but it seems to be relying heavily on winning over conservative Democrats.
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J. J.
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2008, 02:50:58 PM »

Option 1.  PA has been that night hag that has ridden the dreams of all Republicans for the last two cycles.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2008, 02:55:46 PM »


+1 unfortunately.

He has announced a pullback in ad spending in CO, and VA is like...ultra blue.  How a state polling +30 or more for their democratic senator wouldnt at least go Obama+1 is beyond me.

Thats not to say I think PA goes red, just I think Nate Silver's 10,000 simulations model would probably show more instances of PA victory vs CO+VA victory.

Agree with the sentiment, but Mark Warner is a borderline demigod in VA, Gilmore is a bad candidate in this political climate, and Obama is considerably to the left of Warner.
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benconstine
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2008, 03:43:06 PM »

VA and CO, although neither is likely at this point.
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