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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  why did Jimmy Carter lose VA in 1976?
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Author Topic: why did Jimmy Carter lose VA in 1976?  (Read 2441 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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« on: October 21, 2008, 07:59:02 pm »

why did Jimmy Carter lose VA in 1976?
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memphis
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2008, 08:04:47 pm »
« Edited: October 21, 2008, 08:10:34 pm by memphis »

It was really close, but Carter lost VA because he under performed in urban areas and did very poorly in suburban areas. Fairfax, Henrico, Chesterfield, and Virginia Beach put Ford over the top. Carter's numbers in Richmond, Arlington, and Alexandria were pathetic for a Democrat.
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tweed
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2008, 08:25:03 pm »

another thing about '76 - mad states were very close.  ten states were decided by 1.88% or less.  that's crazy.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2008, 08:39:14 pm »

He really underperformed in places like Fairfax, Arlington, Richmond, etc.  He would've won big if he had put up Kerry's numbers in those places.
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tweed
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2008, 08:51:04 pm »

He really underperformed in places like Fairfax, Arlington, Richmond, etc.  He would've won big if he had put up Kerry's numbers in those places.

NoVa was fundamentally different back then
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2008, 09:21:20 pm »

He really underperformed in places like Fairfax, Arlington, Richmond, etc.  He would've won big if he had put up Kerry's numbers in those places.

NoVa was fundamentally different back then

True, but he lost because he couldn't get better numbers there.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2008, 08:16:02 am »

He really underperformed in places like Fairfax, Arlington, Richmond, etc.  He would've won big if he had put up Kerry's numbers in those places.

NoVa was fundamentally different back then

true.

but ford was certainly more tolerable to suburb dwellers than carter.
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pragmatic liberal
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2008, 12:16:15 pm »

The same reason Obama (prior to the financial collapse) looked likely to win Virginia while losing the rest of the South.

The partisan affiliations have flipped -- Virginia always had a big "Northern" population in NoVa and historically was a more moderate/two-party Southern state.

The types of voters that put Ford over the top in 1976 -- suburbanites, professionals -- now heavily lean Democratic, while the conservative rural white voters now support Republicans.
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