Rerun 1996 with today's electorate

[phk]

CO, NC, VA flips to Clinton
LA, KY, TN flips to Dole

[© tweed]

a lot of your percentages, especially in the Northeast, appear to be way off, but I'm not sure you paid close attention to detail with that.

[HardRCafé]

Colorado would not go to a Clinton under any conceivable circumstance.

[memphis]

Colorado would not go to a Clinton under any conceivable circumstance.

Unless the year is 1992.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Colorado would not go to a Clinton under any conceivable circumstance.

Unless the year is 1992.

Back then the statement is true save for contingencies like one H Ross Perot. Now Colorado would easily slide into Clinton's collumn. 

[True Democrat]

Percentages would be too hard with the Perot factor, so:

386-152

[HardRCafé]

Colorado would not go to a Clinton under any conceivable circumstance.

Unless the year is 1992.

Heh, good catch.

[WalterMitty]

the map would have been a lot uglier for dole in 96 had people actually turned out to vote.

[pragmatic liberal]

the map would have been a lot uglier for dole in 96 had people actually turned out to vote.

And Clinton would probably have cracked 50% (which every poll predicted him doing and which, even with low turnout, he would have easily gotten had Perot not run).

[Nym90]

Louisiana voted for Clinton by 12 percent. Yes, Katrina cuts into his margin, but not by enough to cost him the state.

[phk]

Louisiana voted for Clinton by 12 percent. Yes, Katrina cuts into his margin, but not by enough to cost him the state.

The increased Republicanism of the Whites since than would have cost him the state.

[Verily]

Louisiana voted for Clinton by 12 percent. Yes, Katrina cuts into his margin, but not by enough to cost him the state.

The increased Republicanism of the Whites since than would have cost him the state.

But they would still love Clinton if he were the incumbent President. I'm inclined to say the same of Kentucky and Tennessee, too, actually. Having Clinton as the incumbent in 1996 conditions would change a whole lot of how people vote now, almost all in Clinton's favor.

[Person Man]

I agree with the map above. Clinton could have even won Montana with the Perot effect.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Switch MT and WV and we're talking

Lamar Alexander v. Clinton is a different story though

[Stranger in a strange land]

Switch MT and WV and we're talking

Lamar Alexander v. Clinton is a different story though

either Clinton would have won WV this year. Also, it has a pro-incumbent bias. Indeed, virtually any white southern or midwestern Democrat would have. That Kerry and Gore both managed to lose it says more about them and their campaigns than it does about the state.

[GMantis]

Something like this:

Montana would be very close in this scenario

[phk]

Something like this:

Montana would be very close in this scenario

Flip Arkansas and Arizona to Clinton and Indiana to Dole.

[Blazers93]

A landslide of epic proportions.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

'The increased Republicanism of the whites' would not be a problem with Clinton against Dole. Gore was not considered a southerner and Bush was an ideal candidate for the region. John Kerry of course did worse than the average Democrat and Obama's blackness cost him about 5-10 points among southern whites. Had the dems nominated better candidates they would have done better.

 Against McCain, Hillary or Edwards would have won anywhere between 25-35% of deep southern whites.