NC-SurveyUSA: Say "Tie"

[Tender Branson]

Obama - 47
McCain - 47

800 North Carolina adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/18/08 through 10/20/08. Of them, 733 were registered to vote. Of them, 627 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before election day. Of those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, the Democrat Obama leads by 23 points.

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6461548

[Eraserhead]

Great, considering how pro-McCain their NC results have been throughout this cycle.

[Alcon]

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 47% (-2)

+ for Obama:  Best SUSA showing ever, and definitely confirming their early results were errant.

- for Obama:  He's not up, and it's a state where Kerry clearly over-polled in 2004.

Wish I had the sample size for early voting, but it's definitely high-MoE.

[minionofmidas]

"Tie".

[Lief 🗽]

As Eraserhead pointed out, pretty good considering SUSA once gave McCain a 20-point lead in the state. NC is very much a toss-up at this point, and I think that Obama's much superior ground-game more or less cancels out any overpolling that Democrats traditionally do.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama needs to poll over 50% to win NC. Democrat candidates traditionally overpoll in NC as compared to election day. Kerry polled 44% and got 43% on election day. Clinton was ahead in 1992 and ended up losing narrowly. I'd say it's a pure tossup at this point, but I still say McCain holds the state pretty narrowly on election day.

[NOVA Green]

Obama needs to poll over 50% to win NC. Democrat candidates traditionally overpoll in NC as compared to election day. Kerry polled 44% and got 43% on election day. Clinton was ahead in 1992 and ended up losing narrowly. I'd say it's a pure tossup at this point, but I still say McCain holds the state pretty narrowly on election day.

But none of those Democratic candidates had a decent ground game... could that help make up the polling difference this year?

Not trying to challenge your point, but isn't there a possibility that this year will be an exception from the past few elections in this state?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama needs to poll over 50% to win NC. Democrat candidates traditionally overpoll in NC as compared to election day. Kerry polled 44% and got 43% on election day. Clinton was ahead in 1992 and ended up losing narrowly. I'd say it's a pure tossup at this point, but I still say McCain holds the state pretty narrowly on election day.

But none of those Democratic candidates had a decent ground game... could that help make up the polling difference this year?

Not trying to challenge your point, but isn't there a possibility that this year will be an exception from the past few elections in this state?

That's the wild card. Obama's organization is something I've never seen before. It could be the key to him winning there. We'll just have to see how well it works out on election day.

[Torie]

Obama's army seems very disciplined and well lead, and with unlimited money, and that is one reason why I think the game is basically over, absent a game changer, and a big one.

[Democratic Hawk]

Republican 39% (37%): McCain 84% (87%); Obama 13% (11%)

Democrat 44% (42%): McCain 18% (20%); Obama 79% (75%)

Independent 17% (18%): McCain 40% (39%); Obama 45% (51%)

Conservative 39% (35%): McCain 78% (79%); Obama 18% (16%)

Moderate 39% (35%): McCain 34% (36%); Obama 61% (58%)

Liberal 15% (11%): McCain 15% (18%); Obama 77% (79%)

(denotes SUSA, Oct. 5-6, 2008)