NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. (user search)
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  NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. (search mode)
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Author Topic: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters.  (Read 1084 times)
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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Posts: 24,020


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

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« on: October 21, 2008, 12:23:25 PM »

Obama needs to poll constantly above 50% because they will break hard for McCain.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,020


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2008, 12:32:59 PM »

Obama needs to poll constantly above 50% because they will break hard for McCain.

That's my suspicion, especially in NC/VA.


THey didn't in 2004 the went to Kerry.

The last minute deciders broke to Kerry, but that's to be expected against an incumbent. The polling suggested a Bush victory of 8% or so and he won by 13%. I know the polling was within the margin of error, though. Obama very well may win North Carolina, but if he's still polling under 50% then his chances become slimmer. At this point I'd say Virginia is lean Obama. NC is still a tossup or slight Obama.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,020


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2008, 12:40:29 PM »

Obama needs to poll constantly above 50% because they will break hard for McCain.

That's my suspicion, especially in NC/VA.


THey didn't in 2004 the went to Kerry.

The last minute deciders broke to Kerry, but that's to be expected against an incumbent. The polling suggested a Bush victory of 8% or so and he won by 13%. I know the polling was within the margin of error, though. Obama very well may win North Carolina, but if he's still polling under 50% then his chances become slimmer. At this point I'd say Virginia is lean Obama. NC is still a tossup or slight Obama.

I agree, I still say Obama wins NC between .1% to 2%

I will say that turnout appears to be huge in the Triangle area. I was visiting Chapel Hill yesterday and the Obamabots were out in full force. They had a concert right by the polling place for Obama (James Taylor) and there was a huge turnout. I'm worried about NC for McCain. Dole is all but finished.
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