It's wishful thinking, to assume that all of the polls showing a huge Obama surge in the Mid-Atlantic and Southern Atlantic states are outliers. The dam is breaking, and Obama is making huge inroads into these states. Rasmussen shows Obama with his biggest lead ever in Virginia, ten points! Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a 83.5 % chance of carrying Virginia this fall.
Obama now has a seven point lead in North Carolina, including an eighteen point lead among independents. McCain will need to increase his lead among white voters by about ten points in the next two weeks in order to take this state. I just don't see that happening. He is being significantly outspent there.
Early voting shows a huge lead for Obama in North Carolina. As of this morning, over 340,000 North Carolinians have cast general election ballots. Already 5% of the Registered Voters have voted in NC. Registered Democrats make up 55% of those who have already cast votes for the North Carolina general election, while registered Republicans account for less than one in three ballots already cast. If roughly 80% of Registered Voters do actually vote, then we have already seen about 7% of the NC electorate cast their votes. The enthusiasm is there for Obama, too, and that's why this is all very significant. McCain does not have the same enthusiasm numbers coming from voters.
Imagine Jesse Helms country voting an African-American into the Presidency! I will be so proud of those redneck hicks if they manage to evolve so quickly in a generation!
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http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/20/1571958.aspx
