WI: Other Source: Obama up 15 in WI

[Alcon]

Ah, the DeSart-Holbrook model

Still not good.

[Alcon]

Ah, the DeSart-Holbrook model

Still not good.

Not good?  It doesn't look much different than everyone else's.     

The only thing in their prediction that might be suspect is wv, and possibly mo.  Everything else looks pretty solid.

Their model is flawed, whether or not it gets good results.

[Alcon]

Well, that's a pretty empty statement.  By your logic, even if it generates perfect predictions it's still flawed? 

Yes; see TheGlobalizer's analogy.  If the foundation of a model doesn't make sense and can't be reasonably explained, getting lucky does not make it a good model.

And every model is flawed, this one moreso than others.  It is, IIRC, primarily based on unchecked but time-weighted polling information (hence WV), which is cool but not an especially good model.

[Alcon]

In other words, it's just a polling average with no regard for the passage of time, pollster quality, etc.?

I'm sorry, but those things are essential in a model to me, or you get some zany results (see: WV currently, or almost in '04.)  They shouldn't just coast on the availability of polls like that.  And what were they within that margin on?