NC: Public Policy Polling: Obama ahead by 7%
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:28:02 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NC: Public Policy Polling: Obama ahead by 7%
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NC: Public Policy Polling: Obama ahead by 7%  (Read 2978 times)
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,079
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 20, 2008, 12:51:57 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-10-19

Summary: D: 51%, R: 44%, I: 2%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2008, 12:56:02 PM »

So, Obama is anywhere between 25% and 40% among Whites ...

Of course we'll have to wait until Election Night to see who wins here.
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,079
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2008, 12:59:04 PM »

So, Obama is anywhere between 25% and 40% among Whites ...

Of course we'll have to wait until Election Night to see who wins here.

I say Obama ends up winning about 37% of the white voters.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2008, 12:59:50 PM »

Nice. NC is looking very good.
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,137
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2008, 01:07:39 PM »

The internals show Obama getting 39% of whites, which i think is a little high.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2008, 01:08:29 PM »

Even the Kossacks had this at Obama +2. Outlier much?
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2008, 01:09:08 PM »

The internals show Obama getting 39% of whites, which i think is a little high.

Mmm.  Maybe in Virginia.
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,079
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2008, 01:09:28 PM »


It is, I say Obama +3. In the end Obama wins 37% of the white vote. In 2004 kerry won about 34%.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,019


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2008, 01:17:13 PM »


It is, I say Obama +3. In the end Obama wins 37% of the white vote. In 2004 kerry won about 34%.

He did? Then why did he lose the state by 13?
Logged
TheGlobalizer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,286
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.84, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2008, 01:29:08 PM »

Outlier, flush it, move on.
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,079
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2008, 01:31:09 PM »


How about we flush you Tongue
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2008, 01:34:29 PM »

lolz
Logged
TheGlobalizer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,286
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.84, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2008, 01:36:44 PM »


Won't change the worthlessness of this poll result.  Smiley
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,079
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2008, 01:38:39 PM »


I wouldn't say worthless, because we really don't know what polls are right and not right. After Nov. 4th then we can say this poll is worthless. But if you like you can say you "think" this poll is wrong.
Logged
TheGlobalizer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,286
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.84, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2008, 01:43:16 PM »


I wouldn't say worthless, because we really don't know what polls are right and not right. After Nov. 4th then we can say this poll is worthless. But if you like you can say you "think" this poll is wrong.

I think this poll is wrong.
Logged
Kalimantan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 841
Indonesia


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2008, 02:43:56 PM »


I wouldn't say worthless, because we really don't know what polls are right and not right. After Nov. 4th then we can say this poll is worthless. But if you like you can say you "think" this poll is wrong.

I think this poll is wrong.

You can say that all you like, but the dam's breaking. This poll is O+2, M-2 on PPP's last poll of NC. Then in two neighboring states we've got O+10 in VA (Ras) and M+2 in GA (Democracy Corps).

How many outliers do you want in 1 day?
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2008, 02:44:26 PM »


I wouldn't say worthless, because we really don't know what polls are right and not right. After Nov. 4th then we can say this poll is worthless. But if you like you can say you "think" this poll is wrong.

I think this poll is wrong.

it's a data point, not a be-all-end-all.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2008, 02:45:30 PM »


It is, I say Obama +3. In the end Obama wins 37% of the white vote. In 2004 kerry won about 34%.

Was that from the same wonky exit poll that had African Americans at 26%?
Logged
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,572


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2008, 02:46:55 PM »

Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,079
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2008, 02:52:22 PM »


It is, I say Obama +3. In the end Obama wins 37% of the white vote. In 2004 kerry won about 34%.

Was that from the same wonky exit poll that had African Americans at 26%?

No,  Go here
Logged
TheGlobalizer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,286
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.84, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2008, 03:14:38 PM »


I wouldn't say worthless, because we really don't know what polls are right and not right. After Nov. 4th then we can say this poll is worthless. But if you like you can say you "think" this poll is wrong.

I think this poll is wrong.

You can say that all you like, but the dam's breaking. This poll is O+2, M-2 on PPP's last poll of NC. Then in two neighboring states we've got O+10 in VA (Ras) and M+2 in GA (Democracy Corps).

How many outliers do you want in 1 day?

I'd prefer zero, but you can't have everything you want in life.
Logged
freedomburns
FreedomBurns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,237


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2008, 03:33:44 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2008, 03:38:25 PM by freedomburns »

It's wishful thinking, to assume that all of the polls showing a huge Obama surge in the Mid-Atlantic and Southern Atlantic states are outliers.  The dam is breaking, and Obama is making huge inroads into these states.  Rasmussen shows Obama with his biggest lead ever in Virginia, ten points!  Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a 83.5 % chance of carrying Virginia this fall.

Obama now has a seven point lead in North Carolina, including an eighteen point lead among independents.  McCain will need to increase his lead among white voters by about ten points in the next two weeks in order to take this state.  I just don't see that happening.  He is being significantly outspent there.

Early voting shows a huge lead for Obama in North Carolina.  As of this morning, over 340,000 North Carolinians have cast general election ballots.  Already 5% of the Registered Voters have voted in NC.  Registered Democrats make up 55% of those who have already cast votes for the North Carolina general election, while registered Republicans account for less than one in three ballots already cast.  If roughly 80% of Registered Voters do actually vote, then we have already seen about 7% of the NC electorate cast their votes.  The enthusiasm is there for Obama, too, and that's why this is all very significant.  McCain does not have the same enthusiasm numbers coming from voters.

Imagine Jesse Helms country voting an African-American into the Presidency!  I will be so proud of those redneck hicks if they manage to evolve so quickly in a generation!

fb


http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/20/1571958.aspx
Logged
TheGlobalizer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,286
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.84, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2008, 07:07:00 PM »

It's wishful thinking to assume that polls reflect a cosmic shift in the political demography of a state.
Logged
MR maverick
MR politics
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 585
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2008, 12:25:28 AM »

People in the south don't like McCain and never have. They don't like Obama , but he never was going to get their votes.  If these people don't turnout for McCain then the young voters and black votes will crush McCain on election night.  This is the reason McCain is running a "red meat" campaign instead of trying to reach the so-called Indpendents.
Logged
exopolitician
MATCHU[D]
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,892
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2008, 12:35:30 AM »

Its not that high, but I think Obama is favored here. Which is weird to say...
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.242 seconds with 14 queries.