ND-R2000/DailyKos: McCain & Obama tied

[Tender Branson]

McCain: 45
Obama: 45

The Research 2000 North Dakota Poll was conducted from October 14 through October 15, 2008. A total of 500 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/17/134335/23/442/633159

[Aizen]

Embarrassing

[Alcon]

I'm still not really buying North Dakota.  Then again, I also was still not buying Indiana.  I wouldn't mind a Rassy.  My inclination is Mac by low- to mid-single digits.

[Ronnie]

What's wrong with you, ND?  I wouldn't mind a Rasmussen poll.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

What is going on in North Dakota?  Bush won this state by 26!  The population is also older, small, and unchanging. 

[J. J.]

I'm still not really buying North Dakota.  Then again, I also was still not buying Indiana.  I wouldn't mind a Rassy.  My inclination is Mac by low- to mid-single digits.

I'm not either.

Does that NE TV buy buy bleed into ND, however?

[elcorazon]

I'm still not really buying North Dakota.  Then again, I also was still not buying Indiana.  I wouldn't mind a Rassy.  My inclination is Mac by low- to mid-single digits.

I'm not either.

Does that NE TV buy buy bleed into ND, however?

huh?  there's a whole state between NE and ND, at least.

[J. J.]

I'm still not really buying North Dakota.  Then again, I also was still not buying Indiana.  I wouldn't mind a Rassy.  My inclination is Mac by low- to mid-single digits.

I'm not either.

Does that NE TV buy buy bleed into ND, however?

huh?  there's a whole state between NE and ND, at least.

Ah, I thinking of SD.  Sorry.

[Lunar]

I mean, this obviously exaggerates Obama's numbers, but here's a possible theory:
Palin's solidification of this state was only temporary

Yet Obama pulled out...

Yet he's talking about reinvesting money yet again...

[elcorazon]

SD could be in play though.  I still don't get why ND has swung further to Obama than SD.

anybody know the answer to that?

[Aizen]

I'm still not really buying North Dakota.  Then again, I also was still not buying Indiana.  I wouldn't mind a Rassy.  My inclination is Mac by low- to mid-single digits.

I'm not either.

Does that NE TV buy buy bleed into ND, however?

huh?  there's a whole state between NE and ND, at least.

Ah, I thinking of SD.  Sorry.

For future reference, North Dakota is the more northern one. South Dakota is the more southern one.

[TheresNoMoney]

I mean, this obviously exaggerates Obama's numbers,

Not neccessarily, other polls have shown Obama statistically tied with McCain as well.

Hell, the new Research2000 poll has Obama down by 10% in MS, a bigger deficit than every other poll in that state.

[Lunar]

I mean, this obviously exaggerates Obama's numbers,

Not neccessarily, other polls have shown Obama statistically tied with McCain as well.

Hell, the new Research2000 poll has Obama down by 10% in MS, a bigger deficit than every other poll in that state.

The race isn't tied and those other polls were crap university polls with no history of accuracy.

R2K has a pretty standard Democratic bias, the odds are that Obama is not tied, but rather behind a bit.  But you can believe what you want to believe

[WalterMitty]

SD could be in play though.  I still don't get why ND has swung further to Obama than SD.

anybody know the answer to that?

good question.

ive always thought of sd as more democratic than nd.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  Undecideds tell a tale here.

[Person Man]

Embarrassing

[Eraserhead]

Another pile of epic fail for the rethuglicans

[Person Man]

Another pile of epic fail for the rethuglicans

Yes. They are pretty repugnant.

[Brittain33]

good question.

ive always thought of sd as more democratic than nd.

Barone contrasts the two. Goofus pursues socialism, suffers lower growth and loses its children to Minneapolis. Gallant boldly cuts taxes and regulations, welcoming call centers to bustling Sioux Falls!

[Ban my account ffs!]

I'm not really surprised by this... the area to my west is very similar to eastern ND and many of them were very excited about Obama early on...

I still think McCain will take the state by around 5-8 points.... but if Obama were to eek out a victory here, it would be a huge symbolic win.

[ottermax]

ND is less polarized than SD I believe. And ND actually supported Obama in the primary. Maybe because it's closer to Canada?

(It's very odd how conservative ND and MT are compared to Sask. and Manitoba)

[Meeker]

And ND actually supported Obama in the primary. Maybe because it's closer to Canada?

ND was a caucus, SD was a primary.

[NOVA Green]

Hmmm...  Undecideds tell a tale here.

Sam's on to something here... while it looks promising, what helps deflate the Democratic wish balloon is that a good chunk of the undecided voters are Republican.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/17/134335/23/442/633159

I hate to cite the Daily Kos as a source, but it does has the crosstabs available. It looks like McCain will win by at least 5-6 points here.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Embarrassing

It's definitely embarrassing for McCain that some legitimate polling agency has the race tied. Of course, this could also be a bit embarrassing for R2000 if McCain still wins by solid double digits.

[War on Want]

SD could be in play though.  I still don't get why ND has swung further to Obama than SD.

anybody know the answer to that?

Obama has much more organization there from the beginning because he set up offices before Super Tuesday so because the states are very similar demographically.(SD is slightly more liberal)