BRTD's county map predictions

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll do some later, but some comments for now:

-As said above, Florida was probably a bit of an overstimation thanks to me basing it off the 2000 map, and will be revised, but I have a theory about parts of Florida that if true will lead to some surprising results. And the part that would piss of StatesRight is Hillsborough county, which is not changing.
-Kerry's performance in rural Missouri was not normal for a Democrat, even one losing by that margin. Nor was Gore's even. Look at the 2006 Senate map, McCaskill won some 2004 >60% Bush counties, and won a lot more than Kerry or Gore even though she did only three points better than Kerry in percentage of the vote. Kerry even lost Columbia county, which he had absolutely no business doing, and if Obama does I'll eat my shoe. For that map btw I'm assuming basically a tie, I have it going Obama but that might be wishful thinking, if you want to consider it an almost tie going McCain go ahead, there won't be much difference.
-If you note, Monmouth is >40, aka very close. I don't know about the demographic changes Verily mentions, but overall it seems to be a generally Republican county Gore overperformed in. Hell, Gore even almost won Ocean.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a state that'll be tough to predict, but that I seem to have a strange talent for predicting right if the primary is any indication:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's a state that'll be tough to predict, but that I seem to have a strange talent for predicting right if the primary is any indication:

I think, though I could easily be wrong, that Vanderburgh might fall before some of the river counties or even, maybe, before the likes of Porter.

[Brittain33]

I based the FL map off 2000 so I might've overestimated a bit and'll probably revamp it. But I have a theory about FL based off the current polling which if true will give some surprising results (trying to be vague Sam Spade-style.)

Politico reports that the Florida Republican Party under Charlie Crist has broken with the McCain camp and is husbanding its money for the next election cycle. That's going to hurt the McCain ticket because they rely on institutional support in a big way in Florida.

[Brittain33]

I think his point is that if the trend continues in FL, it will be about 4 points more GOP than the national average.

This will be the first election in a very long while in which Florida's economy will be substantially worse off than the country's.

A state where retirees feel like kings in their paid-off homes and anyone with a wrench can make a good living is a Republican state. That doesn't quite describe the Gulf Coast in 2008.

[Brittain33]

Monmouth is changing, though. It's become even more wealthy exurban, and the downscale areas have shrunk. Obama could still win if he massively increases his margin in Middletown and the rest of the northern coast, but, since there's no serious campaign in NJ, I doubt that happens.

Ok. When I was a kid, a lot of the upscale parts of Monmouth County were populated by the Jewish diaspora from New York, much as in Middlesex County. This is a group that swung quite a bit from 2000 to 2004, with 2000 easily a high-water mark. I'm not sure how far they'll swing back in 2008, but it helps that Palin is pushing all of the same buttons that Bush did on them.

On a more general note, the Census indicates that Monmouth is growing more slowly than the state as a whole, 2000-2006. The Asian population is significantly smaller than it is in Somerset, Mercer, or Middlesex Counties. Those two facts would seem to be hard to square with the idea of its growing more affluent via exurban growth, but you know more than I do.

[??????????]

A state where retirees feel like kings in their paid-off homes and anyone with a wrench can make a good living is a Republican state. That doesn't quite describe the Gulf Coast in 2008.

Generalize much?

[Brittain33]

A state where retirees feel like kings in their paid-off homes and anyone with a wrench can make a good living is a Republican state. That doesn't quite describe the Gulf Coast in 2008.

Generalize much?

All the time! Aren't I good at it?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a state that'll be tough to predict, but that I seem to have a strange talent for predicting right if the primary is any indication:

I think, though I could easily be wrong, that Vanderburgh might fall before some of the river counties or even, maybe, before the likes of Porter.

Maybe. It's >40 though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Determining where exactly the swings were going to take place here was kind of tough:

[memphis]

     Still not much South, though I can kind of understand why. Southern states have tons of counties.

Tons of counties + boring = a toxic combo.

There are a number of interesting places in the South. How will racial turnout affect the counties of the Deep South? How will Obama do in the traditionally Democratic Tennessee River Valley of TN and AL? All the state polls are showing huge Democratic swings in VA and NC. Where will these be? How will Katrina impact voters along the MS and LA coasts?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I was thinking in terms of how boring most of Mississippi would be.

Anyway, I bet my Iowa map will probably give WalterMitty a heart attack when he sees it.

[Ronnie]

Ugh, Vigo county's gonna hurt.  It voted with every winner of a presidential election since 1920.

[exopolitician]

Virginia gogogo!

[Lief 🗽]

Could you post the margin whoever wins by along with the map, even if it's just a rough margin?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Virginia gogogo!

It's a shame you got all those annoying independent cities.

Could you post the margin whoever wins by along with the map, even if it's just a rough margin?

OK but I rarely have more than a rough margin in my head.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a boring as shit one:



Obama doing just very slightly worse than Kerry.

[Torie]

Determining where exactly the swings were going to take place here was kind of tough:

Well, I checked out Sioux County to make sure you had the color right, and you did! I am not sure Madison County should be blue, by the way.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've seen Sioux County license plates here. It's weird. I'd figured here would be the last place any such person would go, they probably consider Sioux City an evil hotbed of debauchery much less Minneapolis. Then again maybe they're some of the few sane people escaping.

[Torie]

I've seen Sioux County license plates here. It's weird. I'd figured here would be the last place any such person would go, they probably consider Sioux City an evil hotbed of debauchery much less Minneapolis. Then again maybe they're some of the few sane people escaping.

Madison County has almost no blacks or Catholics, and tends to float a bit, and has some commuters to Des Moines. I suspect it will swing more than the nation.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've seen Sioux County license plates here. It's weird. I'd figured here would be the last place any such person would go, they probably consider Sioux City an evil hotbed of debauchery much less Minneapolis. Then again maybe they're some of the few sane people escaping.

Madison County has almost no blacks or Catholics, and tends to float a bit, and has some commuters to Des Moines. I suspect it will swing more than the nation.

That's a valid reason it might not.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Al would know a lot more for this:



Imagine McCain by about 7 or so. No he's not winning by double digits, yes, he's winning by less than Wyoming, no he's not close to winning every county.

[Ronnie]

I'm skeptical about Jefferson, Summers, Harrison, Wayne and Wyoming county.  Otherwise, it's okay.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wyoming? It voted for Gore by over 10 points, and this margin is assuming a lot closer to Gore's numbers than Kerry's.

[Ronnie]

Wyoming? It voted for Gore by over 10 points, and this margin is assuming a lot closer to Gore's numbers than Kerry's.

It doesn't necessarily mean that it will swing that much to Obama.  Obama would have to swing the county 17+ points in his direction.