USAToday/Gallup: Obama leads by 4-7 points

[Tender Branson]

We'll look at the results of a brand-new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of 1,269 adults that was taken over the weekend. It shows that:

• Among registered voters, Obama leads 51%-44%. (Margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points.)

• Among a measure of "likely" voters that takes into account the individuals' past voting histories, Obama leads 50%-46%. (Margin of error: +/- 4 percentage points.)

• Among a measure of "likely" voters that does not take into account the individuals' past voting histories, and instead focuses solely on their "current voting intentions," Obama leads 52%-45%. (Margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points.) The reason to exclude past voting histories: To more fully factor in the effect of newly registered voters.

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/10/gallup-any-way.html

[TheGlobalizer]

I'd split the difference and round down.  +5 Obama.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I find it extremely hard to believe Obama is only up 5-6 points after we just dumped a couple of trillion in order to avoid a depression.

[TheGlobalizer]

I find it extremely hard to believe Obama is only up 5-6 points after we just dumped a couple of trillion in order to avoid a depression.

Obama and his party voted for it, too.

The people hate both of them, but "throw da bums out" slightly favors Obama because of Bush.

[Eraserhead]

What did the last non-tracking Gallup Poll look like? I don't remember.

[MR maverick]

Whats wrong with a 5pt lead ?

Hell thats a landslide  in the general election.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Whats wrong with a 5pt lead ?

Hell thats a landslide  in the general election.

what's wrong with it?!  you ask that after last week?  Obama should be up 10, easily.  McCain has run a terribly spastic campaign, while Obama has remained on message.  And Obama has a HUGE tailwind at his back, the most since 1980, if not 1976.

Now, I don't believe it is only a 5% lead, I think it more like 8-10...but *IF* it is only 5 points, then McCain can has a shot at an upset.

[pepper11]

 All the Repubs on this board, including myself, gave up on the campaign last week.  But McCain changed the narrative today.  The underdog narrative is the only one that works for McCain and he embraced it today. Mac is back to being the underdog and the fighter.  Don't give up yet - the polls will tighten this week and Mac will be back.

[J. J.]

I certainly have not given up, but I expect a close race.

[classical liberal]

I would posit that, given that half of the voters who care about the economy mostly define the economy as the price of regular unleaded, any negative impact for the incumbent from the government monetizing all of the defaulted mortgages in the country is roughly canceled by positive impact from people encashing their inflation hedging commodity positions in response, i.e.:

1 Massive Bailout for Wall Street = 5 points of "Throw the bums out" + -25 points of "Go long on oil to hedge our other positions" + Other effects
-25 points of "Go long on oil to hedge our other positions" = -$1/gal of regular unleaded
-$1/gal of regular unleaded = -5 points of "Throw the bums out"
Therefore 1 Massive Bailout for Wall Street = 5 points of "Throw the bums out" + -5 points of "Throw the bums out" = 0 points of "Throw the bums out"

[Rococo4]

All the Repubs on this board, including myself, gave up on the campaign last week.  But McCain changed the narrative today.  The underdog narrative is the only one that works for McCain and he embraced it today. Mac is back to being the underdog and the fighter.  Don't give up yet - the polls will tighten this week and Mac will be back.

I've never given up

[Ronnie]

All the Repubs on this board, including myself, gave up on the campaign last week.  But McCain changed the narrative today.  The underdog narrative is the only one that works for McCain and he embraced it today. Mac is back to being the underdog and the fighter.  Don't give up yet - the polls will tighten this week and Mac will be back.

You better hope McCain is going to kick Obama's ass in the debates, because otherwise you won't be looking back at this election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All the Repubs on this board, including myself, gave up on the campaign last week.  But McCain changed the narrative today.  The underdog narrative is the only one that works for McCain and he embraced it today. Mac is back to being the underdog and the fighter.  Don't give up yet - the polls will tighten this week and Mac will be back.

You better hope McCain is going to kick Obama's ass in the debates, because otherwise you won't be looking back at this election.

Debate. Singular. Only one remains.

[J. J.]

He doesn't have to "demolish" Obama.  McCain just has to connect.

[opebo]

I find it extremely hard to believe Obama is only up 5-6 points after we just dumped a couple of trillion in order to avoid a depression.

Obama is a black, jmfcst.

[pepper11]

He will win the debate. There is no doubt. Look at his confidence the last two days. His demenor is 180 degree turnaround from the last two weeks.  He is back to his underdog fighter self that won him the nomination.  Dems better not count their chickens yet.  He will be - 2 in Gallup (LV) and - 2 in Rasmussen within one week.

[MR maverick]

Well, did you actually expect the black candidate to win and by a landslide at that?

My prediction and money has been on McCain winning since the start.  I don't see a black man being elected just don't see it.  Now if it does happen then i guess  my prediction was wrong.

[Monty]

He doesn't have to "demolish" Obama.  McCain just has to connect.

McCain had his chance in the first debate.  The third debate is basically meaningless. 

[pepper11]

Zogby down to to 3.8 tomorrow. Ras and Gallup to follow. Mac is back.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Wins on the Economy; McCain on Terrorism [October 14, 2008]

Independents give Obama his solid advantage over McCain on the economy

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111130/Obama-Wins-Economy-McCain-Terrorism.aspx

Would Barack Obama or John McCain Better Handle the Economy?

Based on national adults

Obama: 53%; McCain 39% (Obama +14)

Among Republicans: Obama 11%; McCain 83%; Same/Unsure 6%
Among Independents: Obama 53%; McCain 32%; Same/Unsure 15%
Among Democrats: Obama 89%; McCain 7%; Same/Unsure 3%

Other Issues

Healthcare: Obama 61%; McCain 32% (Obama +29)
Energy, including gas prices: Obama 52%; McCain 40% (Obama +12)
Taxes: Obama 52%; McCain 40% (Obama +12)
The situation in Iraq: Obama 46%; McCain 50% (McCain +4)
Gun policy: Obama 38%; McCain 50% (McCain +12)
Terrorism: Obama 39%; McCain 55% (McCain +16)

USA Today/Gallup poll, Oct. 10-12, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

He doesn't have to "demolish" Obama.  McCain just has to connect.

And this poll illustrates the challenge McCain is facing

Seven in 10 Say Obama Understands Americans' Problems

Public also more likely to think Obama has plan to solve problems

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111148/Seven-Say-Obama-Understands-Americans-Problems.aspx

Applies to McCain/Obama: Understands the Problems Americans' Face in Their Daily Lives

Barack Obama: 73% Yes, it applies; 26 No, does not

John McCain: 48% Yes, it applies; 50% No, does not

51% say Obama has a clear plan to solving the country's problems; 35% say the same for McCain

63% say McCain is a strong and decisive leader; 61% say the same for Obama

58% say Obama shares their values; 50% say the same for McCain

Dave

[J. J.]

He doesn't have to "demolish" Obama.  McCain just has to connect.

And this poll illustrates the challenge McCain is facing

Seven in 10 Say Obama Understands Americans' Problems

Public also more likely to think Obama has plan to solve problems

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111148/Seven-Say-Obama-Understands-Americans-Problems.aspx

Applies to McCain/Obama: Understands the Problems Americans' Face in Their Daily Lives

Barack Obama: 73% Yes, it applies; 26 No, does not

John McCain: 48% Yes, it applies; 50% No, does not

51% say Obama has a clear plan to solving the country's problems; 35% say the same for McCain

63% say McCain is a strong and decisive leader; 61% say the same for Obama

58% say Obama shares their values; 50% say the same for McCain

Dave

And Obama still is at 50% or less in most polls.