Why is Obama coming to PA

[big bad fab]

If you give the impression that you're sure of one state, it's a good way to lose some points (see McCain in VA, NC, FL) and Obama cannot afford it in PA, where McCain is advertising quite big.

And campaigning in PA can be useful for OH, IN and WV as well because of geographical and/or sociological closeness.

Biden campaigns in PA more than Obama. Obama is also campaigning in VA and NC and OH a lot.

1.  Obama is outspending him in PA.

2.  PA is no even close to IN.

3.  WV and OH are about 300 miles from where Obama and Biden are.  They are not even close to the same media market (this helps in DE and NJ, but these are solidly for Obama).

McCain is advertising quite big in comparison with his own resources....

When I wrote "geographical closeness", I wanted to say electoral geography: deep, little-town and rural PA is quite similar to littel-town and rural IN.

But, sure, media markets aren't the same.

Another important explanation is that PA is the FIRST big state McCain has to win if he's able to lead a counter-offensive. So, Obama has only to defend this one.... (and he defends NJ at the same time when he goes to Philly and Philly suburbs)
Michelle Obama is enough for WI.
Obama doesn't even take some time to make one short stop in MN, despite some bad polls 2 or 3 weeks ago.
Michigan, who was the state where you had to be in, is now empty of Dem presidential candidates....

So, sure, Obama is campaigning a lot in PA, but you must see it the other way: he can afford to campaign ONLY in PA and has plenty of time to go to VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, MO, CO, NM, NV.

Hard time for McCain.
What a disappointment, I hoped it would be "electorally and politically thrilling" until the end....

[J. J.]

McCain is advertising quite big in comparison with his own resources....

Actually, no, Obama is advertising quite big in comparison with his own resources as well.

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First Obama isn't going to those small towns in PA, but Phila, and those small towns in IN are not affected by a rally in Philly.

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If he's worried about defending PA (and NJ), then his internal polling is showing a problem, or at least a potential one.  That is the only reason I can see for him doing this.

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Mypalfish swimming past.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

ok....someone might have already thought of this, but....Obama is pushing PA hard because he knows given the status of the rest of the states, he can't lose if he holds PA.

[J. J.]

ok....someone might have already thought of this, but....Obama is pushing PA hard because he knows given the status of the rest of the states, he can't lose if he holds PA.

But he can win PA and lose the election.  I for one do not believe that there is a 10-15 Bradley Effect in PA (9.99 maybe).

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

ok....someone might have already thought of this, but....Obama is pushing PA hard because he knows given the status of the rest of the states, he can't lose if he holds PA.

But he can win PA and lose the election. 

I think Obama is bound to pick up more Red/Purple states that just IA, NM, NH.  Obama has a very good shot at also picking off at least one out of VA, CO, NV.

[J. J.]

ok....someone might have already thought of this, but....Obama is pushing PA hard because he knows given the status of the rest of the states, he can't lose if he holds PA.

But he can win PA and lose the election. 

I think Obama is bound to pick up more Red/Purple states that just IA, NM, NH.  Obama has a very good shot at also picking off at least one out of VA, CO, NV.

I agree, but in all of those states, his numbers are lower.  PA is a "must win" for Obama, if he loses those other states.  The thing is, if he doesn't win those other states, PA won't make a difference.

My guess is, his internal polling says "You don't got a friend in Pennsylvania," to use a play on the old state slogan.

[Iosif]

"You've not got a friend in Pennsylvania" would've worked better.

Grammatically.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

yo, J.J., I do believe he is calling you a cracker

[Nym90]

Obama has always played it safe and not taken risks in every major decision he's made in this entire general election campaign. So playing it safe and ensuring he's got 270 EVs nailed down rock solid shouldn't come as any surprise for him.

[J. J.]

Obama has always played it safe and not taken risks in every major decision he's made in this entire general election campaign. So playing it safe and ensuring he's got 270 EVs nailed down rock solid shouldn't come as any surprise for him.

He took a risk fundraising.

[Nym90]

Obama has always played it safe and not taken risks in every major decision he's made in this entire general election campaign. So playing it safe and ensuring he's got 270 EVs nailed down rock solid shouldn't come as any surprise for him.

He took a risk fundraising.

Yeah, somewhat, though a pretty low risk one.

Not sure what that has to do with his being in PA, though. Other than that the fact that one paid off now affords him the luxury of spending time in "safe" states like PA.

[J. J.]

Obama has always played it safe and not taken risks in every major decision he's made in this entire general election campaign. So playing it safe and ensuring he's got 270 EVs nailed down rock solid shouldn't come as any surprise for him.

He took a risk fundraising.

Yeah, somewhat, though a pretty low risk one.

Not sure what that has to do with his being in PA, though. Other than that the fact that one paid off now affords him the luxury of spending time in "safe" states like PA.

We don't know if that fund raising plan has paid off as of yet.  Obama still hasn't released the numbers.

[Lunar]

The countdown is in my signature.

I'm waiting Obama!  Fess up your <50 million number!

[J. J.]

The countdown is in my signature.

I'm waiting Obama!  Fess up your <50 million number!

I'm still waiting for it.

We've seen the various Democratic committees borrowing, and the RNC raising $66 M, McCain getting $84 M.

[tokar]

Dont they think its like $100mil?

[J. J.]

Dont they think its like $100mil?

The rumors have ranged from $70M to $100M+.  There is also the possibility of Obama borrowing, as some Democratic committees are doing.

[Lunar]

BIDEN IS GOING TO HOLD A RALLY IN WASHINGTON STATE


IN PLAY??

[Mr.Phips]

BIDEN IS GOING TO HOLD A RALLY IN WASHINGTON STATE


IN PLAY??

Its probably to help pull Gregoire and Burner over the finish line. 

[J. J.]

BIDEN IS GOING TO HOLD A RALLY IN WASHINGTON STATE


IN PLAY??

I'd love for you to show me the race in Phila that is in play. 

[minionofmidas]

Why not? Al Gore was in Chicago a few days before the 2000 election.

[J. J.]

Why not? Al Gore was in Chicago a few days before the 2000 election.

He basically camped out in PA and FL, as Bush did.  It was only that stupid attempt to go to CA that almost took out Bush.

I don't think Obama is stupid, so I'm guessing his internals showed it was closer that public polls were showing.

[Iosif]

But we've already established today that your guesses, predictions and assumptions are not grounded in reality.

[J. J.]

But we've already established today that your guesses, predictions and assumptions are not grounded in reality.

No, we've just established you can't answer the question and try to divert it by attacks.

There are several questions that have been raised, i.e. why hide the fund raising that has been good (and that a number of people have said was announced poorly), why is McCain in Iowa and why was Obama in Philadelphia?

My guess is that the answers are based on internal polling.

[TomC]

Geez, you still on this?

[Iosif]

But we've already established today that your guesses, predictions and assumptions are not grounded in reality.

No, we've just established you can't answer the question and try to divert it by attacks.

There are several questions that have been raised, i.e. why hide the fund raising that has been good (and that a number of people have said was announced poorly), why is McCain in Iowa and why was Obama in Philadelphia?

My guess is that the answers are based on internal polling.

Your first question has been answered at least a dozen times on here today including 3 times by me. And you've ignored each answer. Regardless, you've harped on for the past week that Obama's fundraising was poor and that's been dismissed as the deluded rants of a partisan hack quite emphatically today. Only a complete imbecile would try to spin $150m raised in a month as some sort of botched campaign PR.

McCain's in Iowa because it's a Bush state and he has to at least give the pretence that he's competitive there even if he isn't because it's embarrassing otherwise. Obama's in Pennsylvania because it has 21 electoral votes and he can't lose if he holds Pennsylvania with the way the electoral map looks.

All of the polls have Obama up double digits in PA. All of them. But if you want to ignore them and instead use an appearance last week as a sign than Obama's in trouble there because it somehow fits in the narrative you've been peddling then I'm not going to argue because you're quite clearly not sane.

Good night.