Predict the Obama Presidency

[BlueSwan]

I have high hopes for a Obama presidency, although I'm not naive: he's not going to fundamentally change US politics.

Some important things will change though. First up, Obama is a unifier, not a divider like Dubya. He's exceptional at instilling hope and positivity in people and this is going to mean something, although he won't be able to live on it forever unless he delivers the goods.

In terms of foreign politics, things will change dramatically. Obama is popular in the US, but he's deemed a demigod in Europe and elsewhere. Did you see the "World electoral college" they had on CNN? It showed Obama leading everywhere in the world except for Georgia, Andorra and a third small country I have forgotten. I believe that the mere election of Obama and the removal of Dubya will IMMEDIATELY and dramatically shift the way that the world perceives the US. We will return to the Clinton days where the US was seen as a source of good in most places of the world. If there's any place in which rhetoric actually often means more than concrete action, then it's in foreign relations. Obama will make other countries believe that he cares about them (whether he actually does or not). Something Bush certainly didn't do.

In terms of the economy, there isn't THAT much Obama can actually do, no easy way to solve the crisis, but at least time will be working for him. 2009 and 2010 will be very tough years economically, but hopefully things will brighten up from then on.

Despite having the support of a democratic Congress, I actually believe that Obama will be much less partisan than GWB. As I said - he's a unifier. Some critics say that Obama is more style than substance, but here again style actually matters. Obama wants to be the president of all americans, not just democrats and I believe that he will succeed in doing so. The downside of this is that I believe that he won't push too hard for major reforms. Hopefully he'll at least do something on health care, but after Obamas tenure, we'll probably still be a long way from achieving universal health care.