Predict the Obama Presidency

[Mr.Phips]

In early 2009, he will pass a second stimulus package that is heavy on public works projects and includes another round of rebate checks and a significant middle class tax cut.  He will also pass some laws that drastically reform the banking and financial industry, with much more oversight on these companies by the federal government.  In early 2010, he will pass his healthcare program that helps cover most uninsured Americans who cannot afford healthcare and want it.  The ecomomy begins to recover in March 2010 due to this keynesian style of economics.  In early October 2010, he helps negotiate a nuclear weopons halt that includes the US and many middle eastern countries. 

[Mr.Phips]

In early 2009, he will pass a second stimulus package that is heavy on public works projects and includes another round of rebate checks and a significant middle class tax cut.  He will also pass some laws that drastically reform the banking and financial industry, with much more oversight on these companies by the federal government.  In early 2010, he will pass his healthcare program that helps cover most uninsured Americans who cannot afford healthcare and want it.  The ecomomy begins to recover in March 2010 due to this keynesian style of economics.  In early October 2010, he helps negotiate a nuclear weopons halt that includes the US and many middle eastern countries. 

Scary how optimistic his supporters are. What will they do if/when he isn't successful at all these things he's promised? Will they blame Bush or throw Obama under the bus?

The economic stuff will not be hard to get done if he brings in 60 Democratic senators with him, which I now think he will.  This is not going to be 1992, where the winner wins 43% of the popular vote and has zero coattails.  This is going to be at least a 1976.  

[Mr.Phips]

Anyway, here’s my prediction:

Obama will win 51%-47%.  He will take Florida, Virginia, and the three southwestern states.  Democrats will win Senate races in Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Minnesota.  The Democrats will have a 57-43 majority as Joe Lieberman will caucus with the Republicans after Democrats strip him of his committee spots.  The House majority will be 250-185.

ACORN will be revealed to have committed massive voter fraud.  The new administration will refuse to appoint a special prosecutor and block their US Attorneys from investigating.  This will become a huge problem for Obama.  It will taint his administration from day one and he will be forced to reverse himself and ask the Attorney General to investigate.

Obama’s inaugural address will be incredibly boring.  It will still be hailed by the press as the greatest speech ever given.

Artur Davis will be the Attorney General.  Larry Summers will be Secretary of the Treasury.  Richard Danzig will be Secretary of Defense.  John  Kerry will be Secretary of State.

Sonia Sotomayor, Harold Koh, and David Tatel will be nominated to the Supreme Court to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg, David Souter, and John Paul Stevens.  Anthony Kennedy remains the key swing vote on the divided Court.

John McCain, Joe Lieberman, and Hillary Clinton will join to screw Obama a la the gang of 14 at least once.

Joe Biden will say something stupid at least once.

The Democrats’ first big error will be trying to bring back the fairness doctrine.  This will backfire big time on them.  They will try to institute card check laws.  This will backfire big time as well.

There will be at least three significant corruption scandals involving Obama administration officials.

Obama will fulfill his pledge to meet controversial foreign leaders in his first year not by traveling abroad, but by meeting with them at the opening of the UN session in late 2009.  This will prove a clever gambit.  The meetings with foreign leaders will be hailed by all in the media.

Obama will not meet with Ahmadenijad.  Mehdi Karroubi will defeat Ahmadenijad for President in the June ’09 elections, letting Obama off the hook on meeting with Ahmadenijad.

When Iran tests its first nuclear bomb in 2010, Obama’s meeting with Iran’s leaders will become his “mission accomplished” moment.  His Policy of meeting with Iran’s leaders will be seen in retrospect as a massive failure.

Russia will grow stronger and try to finish off Georgia and then will move on to the Ukraine.

Obama will leave 40,000 troops in Iraq until the end of his term.  This will cause problems with the anti-war movement.  It will not cost him with the public at large, since violence will fade away almost entirely.

The troop surge in Afghanistan will fail to reduce violence.

Obama will have to stop his incursions into Pakistan when Pakistan threatens to shut down the Khyber Pass if the incursions continue.

He will get the Senate to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.  This will harm the economy even more.  People won’t care that it is good for the environment.

Obama will be loved by the world at the beginning.  At the end, he will only be loved in Western Europe.  His stance on trade will cost him popularity in most other places.

Obama will try to pass national health care.  He will be blocked by a filibuster by the remaining 41 Republican Senators.

Obama will try to nationalize the banking industry.  He will be filibustered again.

Obama will drop his middle class tax cut.  He will pass his energy plan and his stimulus package by attaching them to the 2009 budget he submits in February.  His stimulus plan will not stimulate the economy and high energy prices will continue to make a mockery of Obama’s energy plan.

The budget deficit will be $700 billion in Obama’s first year.  It will rise to $800 billion in year two and three.  It will fall to $700 billion in year four.  The deficit will cripple Obama’s domestic agenda and his Presidency.

Obama will not try to pass his tax cut.  He will let the Bush tax cuts expire, rather than repeal them (Think Jefferson with the Alien and Sedition Acts).

The recession will be deep in 2009.  When the credit crunch clears up in late 2009, GDP will grow again but so will inflation.  Unemployment will peak at 9% in 2010.

In 2010, the weak economy, high inflation, high unemployment, and huge deficits will lead to a significant loss of seats for Democrats in the House and three seats in the Senate.  Republicans won’t quite take back the House, but they will shrink the Democrat margin significantly.  Ken Salazar will lose to Bill Owens.  Byron Dorgan will retire and John Hoeven will succeed him.  Harry Reid will be crushed for re-election by 20 points.

Salazar wont lose.  Colorado is becomming increasingly unwinnable for Republicans.  I also doubt Owens would run after he wouldnt run this year for Allard's seat.  In Nevada, the only guy who could beat Reid,  Rep. Jon Porter, is likely to be defeated this year.  Overall we are probably looking at a 1978/1990 style normal midterm were the party in power loses a small, but significant number of seats(a couple in the Senate and about a dozen in the House). 

[Mr.Phips]

Salazar wont lose.  Colorado is becomming increasingly unwinnable for Republicans.  I also doubt Owens would run after he wouldnt run this year for Allard's seat.  In Nevada, the only guy who could beat Reid,  Rep. Jon Porter, is likely to be defeated this year.  Overall we are probably looking at a 1978/1990 style normal midterm were the party in power loses a small, but significant number of seats(a couple in the Senate and about a dozen in the House). 

Harry Reid's approval rating is in the 30s.  He is very unpopular and is a shoo-in to lose if he continues to be seen as a partisan water carrier.

Colorado is not becoming "unwinnable" for Republicans.  That is just a ridiculous thing to say.  Why, because its a swing state its now unwinnable for us?  Give me a break.

If the state was still a swing state, McCain would not be 10 points down there.