So, what kind of Presidency do you think he'll have?
I'm interested both in what his supporters expect from his and what his detractors fear from him.
A weak presidency, I hope. The office was designed to be limited in authority, with but four specific duties delineated in the U. S. Constitution. Over the years, many presidents have strengthened the office, usually to unfavorable effect. I get the general impression that he'll be a president more in the mold that the founders had intended, which will be refreshing.
Beyond restoring general weakness to the office, I'm hoping he'll use the specific duties appropriate to his office to end the Iraq war within four years. I'm fairly confident that he'll withdraw the troops, and his position on Iraq is closer to mine than McCain's, but I'm somewhat less confident that the withdrawal will be on the terms most desirable for our country. But I think he'll surround himself with competent advisors so it's not too much to hope for a reasonably effective withdrawal.
Also, he can use his designated duty as national representative to foreign governments to great effect. I think he'll be pro-active in restoring the image of the United States, abroad, as a positive force in world affairs. He'll have a small head start. His arabic first name, and arabic-sounding last name are definitely beneficial in this regard, and if the spin is done well, that, along with his decidedly ethnic look, can show the arabic-speaking world that we are not bigots toward non-Europeans. Moreover, in a 24-nation survey published this month by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, pollsters found that Bush's exit helps U.S. image abroad, no matter who wins in November. In Indonesia, for example, positive views plunged to 15 percent in 2003 from 61 percent in 2002, but they have now rebounded to 37 percent. In other countries like France, Britain and Turkey, favorable views edged up this year, but by less than four percentage points. But despite the upward trends, only eight nations among those 24 surveyed have a majority favorable view of the US. They are Britain, India, Lebanon, Nigeria, Poland, South Africa, South Korea and Tanzania. So it'll take more than a brownie with a vaguely arabic name to polish our tarnished veneer. And it's important that the polish be applied, since we continue to require assistance defending intellectual property rights, fighting terrorism, and maintaining ecologically sound economic management. And our shrinking share of the global aggregate GDP--22% now, down from 45% thirty years ago--demands it. The good news is that Obama will be viewed more favorably from the get-go than McCain. Let's hope he exploits the good will in a way that benefits the United States, rather than squandering it and over-negotiating. Time will tell.
On the domestic issues, I generally expect him to peel back some of the more grandiose parts of his legislative agenda. Specifically, I think he'll encounter resistance in any attempt to provide universal health care at great expense to the taxpayer, which is good. I also think he'll promote an agenda of greater self-sufficiency in energy. He has already warmed up to the idea of exploratory drilling for oil, which is also a good thing. But it'll take more than this to solve our energy-demand problem. We need to invest more in research for alternative and more efficient technologies. I think Obama will pursue this agenda, within limitations, and I hope he attempts to encourage more mass transit investment. I am not hopeful of the latter, because it is precisely this weakness that will limit him. I think most presidents have over-reached and strengthened the office too much, so I welcome a weak presidency, but in this one instance a stronger voice is needed. Maybe he'll learn to be stronger in some areas, specifically when encouraging the congress to consider energy research, public transit initiatives, and exploratory drilling for oil in US waters and soil.
I do not expect him to pursue a radical social agenda. If anything, I expect him to be less ideological than other presidents, republican or democrat, in this regard.
