Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Lief 🗽]

Also, if you average all of those together, Obama gained slightly from yesterday. So, I think it's too early to say the race is "tightening." It may be settling down a bit, but I don't think there's any indication that it'll shift back to a tossup race at this point.

[J. J.]

If JJ does his little whiny baby R2k thing again, I'm going to block him.

Also, if you average all of those together, Obama gained slightly from yesterday. So, I think it's too early to say the race is "tightening." It may be settling down a bit, but I don't think there's any indication that it'll shift back to a tossup race at this point.

Lief, if Lunar treat the Kos the same way he treats Zogby, I don't have a problem, so here:

You mean I have to poll the forum to find this list?  mmm


Anyway, here's TPM's update:

• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% Obama lead from yesterday. 

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

Fixed, in a way.

Lunar can add a "crap poll" caveat that both Zogby and R2Kos have some real problems or just list them without commentary or strike outs.

Until then:

You mean I have to poll the forum to find this list?  mmm


Anyway, here's TPM's update:

• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% Obama lead from yesterday. 

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

Fixed equally.

This is one of the polling pages and we do legitimately discuss the validity of the polling methodology.  Weighting is part that.  It doesn't have anything to do with what the poll shows, obviously, because McCain is up on R2K.

On your second point, I would say the polling did tightening last weekend, through yesterday, but seems to have stabilized, at least today.  I'm not seeing any additional tightening. 

[Democratic Hawk]

For some reason, IBD hasn't updated its website for October 17, but TIPP has:

Obama 46 (+1); McCain 41 (-1)

http://www.tipponline.com/

Dave

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

For some reason, IBD hasn't updated its website for October 17, but TIPP has:

Obama 46 (+1); McCain 41 (-1)

http://www.tipponline.com/

Dave

looks like most of the polls are in agreement that Obama leads 5-8%...on the surface, that sounds about right, but the undercurrents points to a much bigger Obama win

[ChrisFromNJ]

For some reason, IBD hasn't updated its website for October 17, but TIPP has:

Obama 46 (+1); McCain 41 (-1)

http://www.tipponline.com/

Dave

Over/under on how long it takes for the conservatives to throw this poll under the bus?

[J. J.]

For some reason, IBD hasn't updated its website for October 17, but TIPP has:

Obama 46 (+1); McCain 41 (-1)

http://www.tipponline.com/

Dave

Over/under on how long it takes for the conservatives to throw this poll under the bus?

I'll buy this poll a first class ticket on the bus.  I posted the TIPP poll yesterday and it supposedly has a great track record (It's supposedly has a slight bias for Obama, but I have not seen it in the tracking).  A 4-6 range is in line with everything else and this is dead center.

[exopolitician]

Lunar, why is Gallup wrong? It says 50-43 not 51-45...

unless im totally missing something.

[Lunar]

Lunar, why is Gallup wrong? It says 50-43 not 51-45...

unless im totally missing something.

I think you are.

RV

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV (expanded)

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 45 (nc)

LV (traditional)

Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 47 (nc)

[Lief 🗽]

On your second point, I would say the polling did tightening last weekend, through yesterday, but seems to have stabilized, at least today.  I'm not seeing any additional tightening. 

It tightened from like 6-8 points to 5-7 points. Not really that big a deal.

[J. J.]

On your second point, I would say the polling did tightening last weekend, through yesterday, but seems to have stabilized, at least today.  I'm not seeing any additional tightening. 

It tightened from like 6-8 points to 5-7 points. Not really that big a deal.

Probably 7-9 to 4-6.  It tightened, but today that didn't really continue, at least on Gallup.  I'm looking for trends, and today I'm seeing it leveling off.

[exopolitician]

Lunar, why is Gallup wrong? It says 50-43 not 51-45...

unless im totally missing something.

I think you are.

RV

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV (expanded)

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 45 (nc)

LV (traditional)

Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 47 (nc)

Oh gotcha, I only saw RV numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Saturday, October 18:

Obama: 48.3 (-0.4)
McCain: 44.4 (+0.7)

Obama leads by 16 points among independent voters, winning 51% support to McCain's 35%. McCain has improved his support among his own party - 91% of Republicans are supporting him, compared to 88% of Democrats who support Obama.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1596

[Verily]

Okay, Zogby must just be making numbers up. Obama leads by 16 points among independents and 4 points overall?

[Tender Branson]

Okay, Zogby must just be making numbers up. Obama leads by 16 points among independents and 4 points overall?

They are not making it up, but instead they are using a 38D, 36R, 26I sample.

[Sam Spade]

Ah, Zogby.

[Rowan]

Kos
Obama 50%(-2)
McCain 43%(+1)

Hotline
Obama 49%(-1)
McCain 42%(+2)

[Eraserhead]

Kos
Obama 50%(-2)
McCain 43%(+1)

Hotline
Obama 49%(-1)
McCain 42%(+2)

Playing catchup to the serious polls?

[J. J.]

Kos
Obama 50%(-2)
McCain 43%(+1)

Hotline
Obama 49%(-1)
McCain 42%(+2)

Kos is crap, but Hotline is moderately good.

Zogby is beyond crap.

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP - October 18, 2008
Obama 47 (+1)
McCain 40 (-1)

...polls sure are jumping around today...

[Zarn]

Obama's lead is solid now.

I'm still going to vote for McCain. Nothing is going to change that, but the cycle of history continues.

I guess the idea of corruption in Washington under fire would be too good to be true. It's embraced now more than ever.

[J. J.]

IBD/TIPP - October 18, 2008
Obama 47 (+1)
McCain 40 (-1)

...polls sure are jumping around today...

This poll started off very close (3 points).  A bad sample might be in the mix.

This was (supposedly) the most accurate poll in 2004.

[Tender Branson]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Sunday, October 19:

Obama: 47.8 (-0.5)
McCain: 45.1 (+0.7)

McCain made a big move Saturday among independent voters, cutting's Obama lead from 16 points to just 8 points. Now, Obama leads by a 46% to 38% margin, with the balance of independents either unsure or supporting someone else.

Both candidates have remained strong among their political bases - McCain wins 90% of Republicans, compared to 88% of Democrats who support Obama.

Men are now, again, tilting very slightly in favor of McCain, who leads by just two percentage points among the group. Among women, Obama leads, but only by six points.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1597

[Ty440]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Sunday, October 19:

Obama: 47.8 (-0.5)
McCain: 45.1 (+0.7)


Keep going MAC , Keep Going, We might have a toss-up race by Thursday...

[Umengus]

The Mac is back! (oh no, it's zogby).

[J. J.]

The Mac is back! (oh no, it's zogby).

Looking at all other polls, it's Zogby.