IN-Research2000: Race now a complete tie

[Tender Branson]

Obama - 46%
McCain - 46%

Obama leads 88-7 among Democrats, McCain 83-7 among Republicans and Obama 51-40 among Independents. Whites go for McCain 51-41, African-Americans for Obama 88-4.

The Research 2000 Indiana Poll was conducted from September 29 through October 3, 2008. A total of 800 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 3.5% percentage points.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                                           384         (48%)               
Women                                     416         (52%)

Democrats                                 288         (36%)   
Republicans                              336         (42%)     
Other                                        176          (22%)

White                                        696         (87%)
Black                                          81          (10%)
Other                                          23           (3%)

18-29                                        144          (18%)
30-44                                        248          (31%)
45-59                                        208          (26%)
60+                                           200          (25%)

http://www.wishtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9134022

[Tender Branson]

Very cool ... There's a great chance this isn't called right after poll closing time

[ucscgaldamez]

If that happens and they can't call it, it may be a landslide election. It would be truly demoralizing to hardcore Republicans.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I'm sure somebody has already asked this question and has already answered it, however I feel that it needs to be answered once more for my benefit. How the hell is Barack Obama tied with John McCain in Indiana, when John Kerry lost Indiana back in 2004 by nearly twenty percentage points? In my books, Obama does not seem like the type that would appeal to those in the Hoosier State.

[Ronnie]

Wow, Obama's GOTV efforts are amazing if this is true.  Able to make up a 20% margin in 4 years?  Inconceivable.

[Tender Branson]

I'm sure somebody has already asked this question and has already answered it, however I feel that it needs to be answered once more for my benefit. How the hell is Barack Obama tied with John McCain in Indiana, when John Kerry lost Indiana back in 2004 by nearly twenty percentage points? In my books, Obama does not seem like the type that would appeal to those in the Hoosier State.

The great voters of Indiana may actually support the candidate that is making an effort for their state, unless McCain, who's doing so just to defend it. Coupled with the fact that 2004 was a war election and this is an economic election and the fact that Obama has far higher favorables than Kerry as well as the incompetence of the GOP on all fronts in recent years you come to this result.

[Verily]

I'm sure somebody has already asked this question and has already answered it, however I feel that it needs to be answered once more for my benefit. How the hell is Barack Obama tied with John McCain in Indiana, when John Kerry lost Indiana back in 2004 by nearly twenty percentage points? In my books, Obama does not seem like the type that would appeal to those in the Hoosier State.

The only explanation that I can give is that 2006 may have been prophetic in Indiana. Perhaps the state really has made a sharp turn towards the Democrats, not towards Obama specifically (although the polls of the gubernatorial race counter this theory). Now, why the state is suddenly much more positively disposed towards Democrats is a whole different story.

[Lunar]

I'm sure somebody has already asked this question and has already answered it, however I feel that it needs to be answered once more for my benefit. How the hell is Barack Obama tied with John McCain in Indiana, when John Kerry lost Indiana back in 2004 by nearly twenty percentage points? In my books, Obama does not seem like the type that would appeal to those in the Hoosier State.

Well, a number of factors.

1.  Indiana is the youngest state outside of Illinois in the entire Midwest, Rustbelt, Upper Midwest region.  Lots of college students, not too many old people.  Obama appeals to these people quite a bit.  Like, Obama's registered 11k IU students just since mid-August, 1,000 today alone.
2. A large portion of the state (%20) is in the expensive Chicago media market, meaning that Obama kinda-sorta was their senator, they see Obama's face constantly in the Chicago tribune, and only Obama can afford to compete there.
3. Obama's the only one competing in the state, investing millions and millions running ads, organizing high schoolers, and so on. 
4. Social values aren't playing a role this time around.
5. Obama's primary competition heavily and successfully invested into Indiana as the deciding state to finish Hillary off.  They got a great organization in place, lots of names, lots of volunteers, and so on.

[Lief 🗽]

If Indiana is tied, then Obama will win the state, because McCain has absolutely no organization there. No campaign offices. No GOTV structure. No ads. If Indiana is tied or even McCain +2 or so come election day, Obama's organization will win it.

[Eraserhead]

If Indiana is tied, then Obama will win the state, because McCain has absolutely no organization there. No campaign offices. No GOTV structure. No ads. If Indiana is tied or even McCain +2 or so come election day, Obama's organization will win it.

I seriously doubt it. Undecideds are likely to break for McCain in Indiana.

[memphis]

Another consequence of McCain's ethanol bashing?

[Smash255]

Another consequence of McCain's ethanol bashing?

Maybe, but I doubt that much.  The bulk of Obama's gains will likely be in suburban Indianapolis and suburban Chicago.

[The Ex-Factor]

Very cool ... There's a great chance this isn't called right after poll closing time

I don't expect it to be called after closing time. At the very least it should be too early to call.

[Rowan]

If Indiana is tied, then Obama will win the state, because McCain has absolutely no organization there. No campaign offices. No GOTV structure. No ads. If Indiana is tied or even McCain +2 or so come election day, Obama's organization will win it.

Or maybe it IS tied because of Obama's organization.

[Lief 🗽]

If Indiana is tied, then Obama will win the state, because McCain has absolutely no organization there. No campaign offices. No GOTV structure. No ads. If Indiana is tied or even McCain +2 or so come election day, Obama's organization will win it.

Or maybe it IS tied because of Obama's organization.

Well, to a degree, yes. But polls don't pick up GOTV organization; they can't. I'd also think that Obama's supporters, after being actively campaigned for for months are more enthusiastic and excited about voting than the essentially ignored McCain supporters, which again won't completely manifest itself in the polls.

[memphis]

Another consequence of McCain's ethanol bashing?

Maybe, but I doubt that much.  The bulk of Obama's gains will likely be in suburban Indianapolis and suburban Chicago.

Chicago perhaps, though Lake County was already pretty Dem for Indiana. Kinda doubt Obama will do much in suburban Indianapolis. Very conservative region.

[Smash255]

Another consequence of McCain's ethanol bashing?

Maybe, but I doubt that much.  The bulk of Obama's gains will likely be in suburban Indianapolis and suburban Chicago.

Chicago perhaps, though Lake County was already pretty Dem for Indiana. Kinda doubt Obama will do much in suburban Indianapolis. Very conservative region.

Yes, but it will likely move drastically towards Obama.  McCain will still win suburban Indianapolis, but the margins are going to be nowhere even remotely close to where they were.  The area has seen pretty large growth, much of that coming from young highly educated professionals, large high tech growth.  What happened in the Primary in those areas was just amazing.