NH: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 40

[Stranger in a strange land]

Third consecutive poll to show Obama up by double digits

remember the primary. That's all I'm gonna say.

......however, there were several dynamics at work in the primary that aren't at work here: for one thing Hillary's win came largely from the margin she racked up among early voters, who voted during the "Hillary is inevitable" phase. This time around, early voting, if anything, will likely benefit Obama. Also, if John McCain cries a week before the election, he'll be laughed out of the race. However, if Sarah Palin cries a week before the election...see where I'm going with this?

[Stranger in a strange land]

my other concern about New Hampshire is the Bradley Effect. It seems like there was a Bradley Effect here in the Primary, albeit a small one. Hillary supporters claimed they were undecided, which was why it appeared so many undecideds broke her way. If there's anywhere in the country I expect to see a Bradley Effect, it's in the lily white states of New England, where black candidates are still a novelty and where outward displays of racism are most socially unacceptable, and where paradoxically Obama is most susceptible to "othering".