NH: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 40

[TheresNoMoney]

Yikes.

[TheresNoMoney]

I was looking at the internals. I do think Republicans are underrepresented in this poll.

What is the breakdown? Republicans account for about 31% of registered voters in NH.

[TheresNoMoney]

Then yeah, Republicans are probably undersampled in this poll. There is much more enthuisiasm on the Democratic side, but not an 8% margin.

[TheresNoMoney]

remember the primary. That's all I'm gonna say.

You're comparing applies and oranges. Hillary won the primary because all the undecideds broke her way in the final two days.

Obama will win NH comfortably, by 5%-10%.

[TheresNoMoney]

[Of course, but the primary was a bit different. Because of the high Obama lead, many Independents voted in the GOP primary, because they thought their vote would have a bigger impact there.

That's not true.

And again, Hillary won the NH primary (by a mere 2.5%) because she won the female vote by double digits and because all the undecideds broke her way in the final two days.

[TheresNoMoney]

my other concern about New Hampshire is the Bradley Effect. It seems like there was a Bradley Effect here in the Primary, albeit a small one.

New Hampshire is not a racist state, there will be very little "Bradley Effect" here.