|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 08, 2020, 09:31:01 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NH: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 40
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: NH: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 40  (Read 1338 times)
The Ex-Factor
xfactor99
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
Viet Nam


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -6.43


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 06, 2008, 11:01:32 am »

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Survey USA on 2008-10-05

Summary: D: 53%, R: 40%, I: 5%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Topline Numbers

Obama 53%

McCain 40%

Other 5%

Not Sure 2%
Logged
ucscgaldamez
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 373


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2008, 11:04:04 am »

Quite a headline from SurveyUSA: "In New Hampshire, Obama May Out-Perform Every Democratic Presidential Candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964"
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,910


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2008, 11:04:39 am »

Yikes.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,431
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2008, 11:05:15 am »

What a huge swing NH experienced...
Logged
ucscgaldamez
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 373


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2008, 11:10:46 am »

I was looking at the internals. I do think Republicans are underrepresented in this poll. But who knows who will show up.

Out of 3 black voters they interviewed, 2 are voting for McCain and 1 is undecided.

Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,910


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2008, 11:13:44 am »

I was looking at the internals. I do think Republicans are underrepresented in this poll.

What is the breakdown? Republicans account for about 31% of registered voters in NH.
Logged
The Ex-Factor
xfactor99
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
Viet Nam


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -6.43


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2008, 11:14:38 am »

I was looking at the internals. I do think Republicans are underrepresented in this poll.

What is the breakdown? Republicans account for about 31% of registered voters in NH.

26% Republican
34% Democrat
39% Independent
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,300


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2008, 11:15:31 am »
« Edited: October 06, 2008, 11:17:38 am by brittain33 »

This isn't too far out of line with what I'd expect if the magical "McCain is N.H.'s third senator" factor is overblown.

(edited because, no, a 13-point margin is excessive, but I don't think N.H. is as close as others do.)
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,910


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2008, 11:16:00 am »

Then yeah, Republicans are probably undersampled in this poll. There is much more enthuisiasm on the Democratic side, but not an 8% margin.
Logged
Aizen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,514


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -9.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2008, 12:04:06 pm »

Third consecutive poll to show Obama up by double digits
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,707
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2008, 12:18:45 pm »

Third consecutive poll to show Obama up by double digits


remember the primary. That's all I'm gonna say.

......however, there were several dynamics at work in the primary that aren't at work here: for one thing Hillary's win came largely from the margin she racked up among early voters, who voted during the "Hillary is inevitable" phase. This time around, early voting, if anything, will likely benefit Obama. Also, if John McCain cries a week before the election, he'll be laughed out of the race. However, if Sarah Palin cries a week before the election...see where I'm going with this? Wink
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,910


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2008, 12:20:37 pm »


You're comparing applies and oranges. Hillary won the primary because all the undecideds broke her way in the final two days.

Obama will win NH comfortably, by 5%-10%.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,767
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2008, 12:23:46 pm »

Third consecutive poll to show Obama up by double digits


remember the primary. That's all I'm gonna say.

......however, there were several dynamics at work in the primary that aren't at work here: for one thing Hillary's win came largely from the margin she racked up among early voters, who voted during the "Hillary is inevitable" phase. This time around, early voting, if anything, will likely benefit Obama. Also, if John McCain cries a week before the election, he'll be laughed out of the race. However, if Sarah Palin cries a week before the election...see where I'm going with this? Wink

Of course, but the primary was a bit different. Because of the high Obama lead, many Independents voted in the GOP primary, because they thought their vote would have a bigger impact there. Not to mention cry-baby Hillary, who used to tighten her grip on the state's Democrats a few days before the vote. But what stands out ? Despite all of this Obama still managed to get more votes than McCain in the primaries and there's no reason why this shouldn't be this way in the GE too.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,910


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2008, 12:25:57 pm »

[Of course, but the primary was a bit different. Because of the high Obama lead, many Independents voted in the GOP primary, because they thought their vote would have a bigger impact there.

That's not true.

And again, Hillary won the NH primary (by a mere 2.5%) because she won the female vote by double digits and because all the undecideds broke her way in the final two days.
Logged
giving birth to thunder
BRTD
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,983
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2008, 02:13:06 pm »

I don't care about NH. Obama can easily substitute Nevada for it.
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,707
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2008, 04:52:01 pm »

my other concern about New Hampshire is the Bradley Effect. It seems like there was a Bradley Effect here in the Primary, albeit a small one. Hillary supporters claimed they were undecided, which was why it appeared so many undecideds broke her way. If there's anywhere in the country I expect to see a Bradley Effect, it's in the lily white states of New England, where black candidates are still a novelty and where outward displays of racism are most socially unacceptable, and where paradoxically Obama is most susceptible to "othering".
Logged
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,625
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2008, 01:42:01 pm »

Republican 26% (28%): McCain 84% (88%); Obama 12% (6%)

Democrat 34% (30%): McCain 8% (20%); Obama 89% (75%)

Independent 39% (40%): McCain 39% (41%); Obama 48% (44%)

Conservative 25% (25%): McCain 79% (70%); Obama 12% (22%)

Moderate 44% (51%): McCain 37% (38%); Obama 58% (51%)

Liberal 19% (15%): McCain 5% (24%); Obama 90% (71%)

(denotes SUSA, Feb. 26-28, 2008)
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,910


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2008, 02:19:53 pm »

my other concern about New Hampshire is the Bradley Effect. It seems like there was a Bradley Effect here in the Primary, albeit a small one.

New Hampshire is not a racist state, there will be very little "Bradley Effect" here.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines