MN: Survey USA: McCain 47, Obama 46

[Eraserhead]

I will say this... McCain carrying MN and Obama carrying IN would make for one hell of an amusing election night.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I will say this... McCain carrying MN and Obama carrying IN would make for one hell of an amusing election night.

That just might explode the red state/blue state paradigm.

[Lunar]

I will say this... McCain carrying MN and Obama carrying IN would make for one hell of an amusing election night.

Same with Obama carrying Utah and McCain carrying New York.

[J. J.]

Outlier

[minionofmidas]

Odd way-too Republican MN polls also appeared in the late stages of 2004. I think Mason-Dixon had Bush up 6 three weeks before the election or something (too lazy to look it up). May be something with the way the state behaves in polls, ie with when people of different politics make up their mind (although I haven't a clue what, exactly), just as Michigan and New Jersey (and Germany, big time!) frequently provide ridiculous too rightwing results early in the campaign.

[Democratic Hawk]

Republican 30% (31%): McCain 90% (89%); Obama 7% (10%)

Democrat 37% (39%): McCain 11% (10%); Obama 85% (88%)

Independent 21% (16%): McCain 44% (50%); Obama 39% (41%)

Conservative 31% (30%): McCain 83% (85%); Obama 10% (12%)

Moderate 43% (39%): McCain 36% (38%); Obama 57% (57%)

Liberal 15% (16%): McCain 10% (8%); Obama 89% (90%)

Top issue - the economy 62% (55%): McCain 48% (45%); Obama 44% (52%)

(denotes SUSA, Sep. 10-12, 2008)

[Hash]

Lolz

[Ban my account ffs!]

What a joke.

[Rowan]

Told you Minnesota was a tossup.

[Vsanto5]

No one thought that Min. was a tossup and no one will.

[Rowan]

No one thought that Min. was a tossup and no one will.

It is a tossup, but whether you guys want to believe me or not is up to you.

[Brittain33]

No one thought that Min. was a tossup and no one will.

It is a tossup, but whether you guys want to believe me or not is up to you.

Is it a toss-up with Obama running at +5 to +7 nationwide?

[Rowan]

No one thought that Min. was a tossup and no one will.

It is a tossup, but whether you guys want to believe me or not is up to you.

Is it a toss-up with Obama running at +5 to +7 nationwide?

Looking at this poll, apparently so.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Minnesota is certainly a toss-up in a 50/50 race.

[Brittain33]

No one thought that Min. was a tossup and no one will.

It is a tossup, but whether you guys want to believe me or not is up to you.

Is it a toss-up with Obama running at +5 to +7 nationwide?

Looking at this poll, apparently so.

You don't believe every poll you see, particularly when it conflicts with the weight of historical evidence, common sense, and other polls of the same state. 

[Verily]

Their MN polling is awful. Hopefully they will have a turnaround in their next polls or will look really foolish on Nov. 5.

Agree. SUSA has had a very large Republican tilt in Minnesota specifically the whole campaign (both in the Senate and Presidential races). I have no idea why; they don't tend to have any partisan tilt in most states. Maybe they have trouble with rural Democrats?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Their MN polling is awful. Hopefully they will have a turnaround in their next polls or will look really foolish on Nov. 5.

Agree. SUSA has had a very large Republican tilt in Minnesota specifically the whole campaign (both in the Senate and Presidential races). I have no idea why; they don't tend to have any partisan tilt in most states. Maybe they have trouble with rural Democrats?

Well the internals often show that, here McCain is getting over 60% in western Minnesota which is downright laughable and a previous one had McCain winning by double digits in northeastern Minnesota which is even more hilarious. Of course the standard MoE on those sample sizes comes to mind, but it shows in the sample where the problems are.

I think SUSA (and likely other pollsters too due to Lewis' post) just don't know how to sample a state with same day registration.

For Rowan by the way, look it up, the last time Minnesota was more GOP than the national average was 1952 (and even then only marginally.)

[big bad fab]

SUSA maybe thought Pawlenty is McCain's running mate....

[Hash]

Told you Minnesota was a tossup.

You're going to base that of one poll? Lol. Great analysis skills, champ.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

No way.  With Obama up 5-6%, MN is a toss-up?  Don't make me laugh

[ucscgaldamez]

Minnesota is a tossup.

[Sam Spade]

What's kinda funny is that with the Franken internal release, the Senate poll doesn't look as ridiculous as I thought it did.  Does make this poll any more valid, however.

[ucscgaldamez]

link to the Franken internal release?

[Keystone Phil]

Told you Minnesota was a tossup.

You're going to base that of one poll? Lol. Great analysis skills, champ.

Well, in all fairness, I believe the past two MN SurveyUSA polls showed Obama with a narrow lead so it's not based off of one poll.

That being said, MN is not a swing state. McCain better not fall for this.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I think Obama will perform about 5 points better than his national margin.  If Obama beats McCain by 5 nationally, he will beat McCain by 10 in Minnesota.

Coming from an area that straddles the border between "western" and "northeast" Minnesota (I am in MN-7 and about 400 feet from MN-8)... those internals are way off.

McCain may well win in western MN however they define western MN, but it won't be by more than a few points.  The notion that McCain will somehow beat Obama 2-to-1 in western Minnesota is absolutely absurd.  I fully expect Obama to beat Kerry and Gore in western MN and he may very well approach Dukakis levels.

This is because I have a generally good feeling for politics in north-central and northwest Minnesota.

If I go by personal anecdote, it looks even more grim for McCain.  People here think Palin is a joke... things I've heard from strangers:  "yeah, well.. she's not the brightest bulb on the tree" and "she's in way over her head"...

I had one lady say "yeah.. I saw two reporters standing next to eachother and one said 'oh Palin did so well' and the other said 'she was hanging on for dear life'" and then she just laughed and said "she's pretty ridiculous"

Another woman told me "well, at first I really liked her.. and then I started to learn what her positions are... wow... what a kook."

She has become the punch line of a lot of jokes here.

Northern Minnesota and Alaska have a lot of things in common... many of the same issues face us (resource use and management, the outdoors being a huge part of our lives that is woven into our culture, similar flora and fauna and similar weather)... but we look at these issues in a very different way.  Sarah Palin herself is not even a typical Alaskan.  She comes off as a genuinely nice person and a very hard worker... northern Minnesotans can relate to her on her friendliness and warmth... but she really is in way over her head.  We're high information voters here... a familiar accent and a wink at the camera can't make up for her dearth of knowledge of the issues.