WA: Rasmussen: Obama Leads WA by 10%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: Washington President by Rasmussen on 2008-10-02

Summary: D: 53%, R: 43%, I: 2%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

2* 2008 Presidential General Election Match-Ups





McCain

 43%

 

Obama

 53%

 

Some Other Candidate

 2%

 

Not sure

 3%

[Eraserhead]

Only 10?

[Ronnie]

Whoa, Washington is trending Republican?

[Rowan]

OMGNOWAY Latte libs are losing their stranglehold on the state, we are all DOOMED.

[Democratic Hawk]

Whoa, Washington is trending Republican?

Comparing this poll with Rasmussen's previous poll (10 Sep), which had Obama 49%, McCain 47%, Obama has gained, and McCain has lost, four-points. I can live with that

Dave

[Alcon]

Whoa, Washington is trending Republican?

In 2004, our Bush voters were second most likely in the country to identify as "conservative," behind Oregon.  We're a very polarized state.  Obama is slightly underperforming, but in a national blow-out, Washington is inevitably going to trend less than most states.

[Daniel Z]

10 points is probably right on target. Kerry won by 7, and Gore won by 5.5. Were not Massachusets or California like most people seem to think. So 10 points does not signify a Republican trend.

[NOVA Green]

Whoa, Washington is trending Republican?

I think one factor that hasn't really been mentioned on the Washington/Oregon polling threads is the relatively large military and veteran presence in Washington compared to Oregon. I suspect this could be part of the reason for the difference in McCain's over-performance here compared to 2004 and 2000.

Whoa, Washington is trending Republican?

In 2004, our Bush voters were second most likely in the country to identify as "conservative," behind Oregon.  We're a very polarized state.  Obama is slightly underperforming, but in a national blow-out, Washington is inevitably going to trend less than most states.

No question "Palin power" has energized the base in both OR and WA, and may have been partially responsible for excellent polling numbers for McCain for a few weeks after the convention. However the tide has receded as moderates in both states learned more about Palin's social conservative values, which negated much of the attraction of having a North-westerner (sort of anyways) on the ticket.

What interests me here, is why is Obama doing as well (or even better) in Oregon than in Washington?

[Alcon]

I'm a little skeptical about that, honestly.  Our military population is very transitory, doesn't vote much, and Obams is doing better than Kerry.  Turnout may favor McCain a bit, but Fort Lewis and McChord aren't showing some GOP boom to me. I've been watching registrations there.

I still see Washington as being slightly more Dem than Oregon in this race, but the polls sure ain't agreeing with me.  [Shrug]

[NOVA Green]

I'm a little skeptical about that, honestly.  Our military population is very transitory, doesn't vote much, and Obams is doing better than Kerry.  Turnout may favor McCain a bit, but Fort Lewis and McChord aren't showing some GOP boom to me. I've been watching registrations there.

Granted.... you're probably not seeing a huge change in "base precincts".

However wherever you have a major base town there is also a chunk of veterans that settle down, military families, and numerous contractors and suppliers that provide services and whose jobs are based directly off of that industry.

Additionally in Washington, there are also major companies such as Boeing that have a large chunk of their market in military contracts.

You are totally correct that looking at the "military vote" as its own entity might not explain a 2-3% point difference, but I still haven't seen a good explanation as to why Oregon is slightly over-performing, and Washington is under-performing for Obama.

[Alcon]

I have some statistics about possibly military-affiliated registrations in the 28th district of Washington (which includes two military bases) to look at.  Nothing is probably going to get us a concrete answer, but that might help indicate a big surge in interest if there is one.

My inclination is that Bush was actually a better candidate for these people, but yours is a very reasonable hypothesis.

[NOVA Green]

I have some statistics about possibly military-affiliated registrations in the 28th district of Washington (which includes two military bases) to look at.  Nothing is probably going to get us a concrete answer, but that might help indicate a big surge in interest if there is one.

Interesting--- I knew you'd have the stats stashed somewhere on your desktop 

We'll see how the polling continues to go on the NW, and I trust you'll share some of your findings come November.

[ottermax]

I think there is just a limit to Washington. Unless you are really something spectacular you can't win by more than 10-12% here. It'll be interesting to see how Eastern Washington votes.