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Author Topic: Predict your State and County.  (Read 6429 times)
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #25 on: September 30, 2008, 08:03:55 PM »

Please retreat back to the cave you seemed to be hiding in the last weeks moron

Lets look at the last three polls for both races:

Obama+2, Obama+2, Tied

And

Hagan+8, Hagan+3, Hagan+5
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #26 on: September 30, 2008, 08:04:28 PM »

Please retreat back to the cave you seemed to be hiding in the last weeks moron

Lets look at the last three polls for both races:

Obama+2, Obama+2, Tied

And

Hagan+8, Hagan+3, Hagan+5
See polls NJ Senate 2006 September
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #27 on: September 30, 2008, 08:08:04 PM »

Josh's predictions are certainly less laughable than DWTL's.
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #28 on: September 30, 2008, 08:08:56 PM »

Please retreat back to the cave you seemed to be hiding in the last weeks moron

Lets look at the last three polls for both races:

Obama+2, Obama+2, Tied

And

Hagan+8, Hagan+3, Hagan+5
See polls NJ Senate 2006 September

And your point is? That was NJ in 2006, this is NC in 2008, different race, time and state.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #29 on: September 30, 2008, 08:10:21 PM »

Please retreat back to the cave you seemed to be hiding in the last weeks moron

Lets look at the last three polls for both races:

Obama+2, Obama+2, Tied

And

Hagan+8, Hagan+3, Hagan+5
See polls NJ Senate 2006 September

And your point is? That was NJ in 2006, this is NC in 2008, different race, time and state.
Its the same damn thing, except for the fact Kean had bigger leads, more consistent leads, and reputable polls showed him ahead for consecutive months
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #30 on: September 30, 2008, 08:12:34 PM »

Please retreat back to the cave you seemed to be hiding in the last weeks moron

Lets look at the last three polls for both races:

Obama+2, Obama+2, Tied

And

Hagan+8, Hagan+3, Hagan+5
See polls NJ Senate 2006 September

And your point is? That was NJ in 2006, this is NC in 2008, different race, time and state.
Its the same damn thing, except for the fact Kean had bigger leads, more consistent leads, and reputable polls showed him ahead for consecutive months

No it isn't, in 2006 there wasn't a Presidential race going on. We had a bad economy, but it wasn't not like how it is now. Also NC is a totally different state then NJ.
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #31 on: September 30, 2008, 08:19:04 PM »

Also DTWL, NC has one stop reg. and vote starting up in a few weeks. This will help Obama and Hagan alot. In the primaries in NC that is how they won by big margins.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #32 on: September 30, 2008, 08:19:59 PM »

Also DTWL, NC has one stop reg. and vote starting up in a few weeks. This will help Obama and Hagan alot. In the primaries in NC that is how they won by big margins.
You are retarded, please go attend another leadership confrence to realize that you are actually a straight conservative Mike Gravel supporter
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #33 on: September 30, 2008, 08:22:44 PM »

Also DTWL, NC has one stop reg. and vote starting up in a few weeks. This will help Obama and Hagan alot. In the primaries in NC that is how they won by big margins.
You are retarded, please go attend another leadership confrence to realize that you are actually a straight conservative Mike Gravel supporter

How am I retarded? The facts are a in August I said that Obama and Hagan would come back and make NC a toss-up, you said no they are not and both are going to win by 10% or more. Now it is looking like I was right.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #34 on: September 30, 2008, 08:24:17 PM »

Also DTWL, NC has one stop reg. and vote starting up in a few weeks. This will help Obama and Hagan alot. In the primaries in NC that is how they won by big margins.
You are retarded, please go attend another leadership confrence to realize that you are actually a straight conservative Mike Gravel supporter

How am I retarded? The facts are a in August I said that Obama and Hagan would come back and make NC a toss-up, you said no they are not and both are going to win by 10% or more. Now it is looking like I was right.
No, its looking like polls say a lot of things and you can't trust them.  Again, NJ 2006 and countless other races.  McCain will win by 10+% and Dole will most likely win by 5%+
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #35 on: September 30, 2008, 08:26:51 PM »

Also DTWL, NC has one stop reg. and vote starting up in a few weeks. This will help Obama and Hagan alot. In the primaries in NC that is how they won by big margins.
You are retarded, please go attend another leadership confrence to realize that you are actually a straight conservative Mike Gravel supporter

How am I retarded? The facts are a in August I said that Obama and Hagan would come back and make NC a toss-up, you said no they are not and both are going to win by 10% or more. Now it is looking like I was right.
No, its looking like polls say a lot of things and you can't trust them.  Again, NJ 2006 and countless other races.  McCain will win by 10+% and Dole will most likely win by 5%+

You are so funny that is all I have to say. Come Nov 4th you are going to eat your words.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #36 on: September 30, 2008, 08:28:26 PM »

DWTL is right.  Polls have been wrong before, and NC is a tough state.  However, I don't think Mac wins by 10, or Hagan wins by 5.
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #37 on: September 30, 2008, 08:32:12 PM »

DWTL is right.  Polls have been wrong before, and NC is a tough state.  However, I don't think Mac wins by 10, or Hagan wins by 5.

I'm not saying poll are always right. But I talk to 100s of people a week from all over NC and 60% of them are sick of the Bush views and the republicans. Both Obama and Hagan have great ground work in place and the polls don't pick up the ground work of people going out taking people to early voting places so they and reg. and vote on the same day. They did it in the primaries and and they will do it now.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #38 on: September 30, 2008, 08:33:33 PM »

Josh, I talked to 100 people yesterday, and 95 said they were voting for Obama.  Talking to people isn't all that reliable; and neither does same day registration so much.  Like I said, NC will be close, but it ain't voting Obama.
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #39 on: September 30, 2008, 08:35:26 PM »

Josh, I talked to 100 people yesterday, and 95 said they were voting for Obama.  Talking to people isn't all that reliable; and neither does same day registration so much.  Like I said, NC will be close, but it ain't voting Obama.

Don't say NC isn't going to vote for Obama, because you really don't know what will happen.
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Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
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« Reply #40 on: September 30, 2008, 08:36:16 PM »

Middlesex County

Obama 64%
McCain 36%

Massachusetts

Obama 59%
McCain 40%

Assuming a bit of tightening. Either way, Middlesex is not where McCain will make his major gains.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #41 on: September 30, 2008, 08:37:49 PM »

Don't say NC isn't going to vote for Obama, because you really don't know what will happen.

By that logic, I can't say that Massachusetts isn't going for Obama, or Utah won't go for McCain.  That's bad logic, and it doesn't work.
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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« Reply #42 on: September 30, 2008, 08:46:12 PM »

Oregon (assuming a 4 point Obama win nationally):

Obama- 53  McCain-45
Merkely-51  Smith-48

Benton Co.
Obama-62   McCain-37
Merkely-56  Smith- 42
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #43 on: September 30, 2008, 08:50:41 PM »

MD: 57 Obama, 42 McCain

Baltimore County:  49 and change for both
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??????????
StatesRights
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« Reply #44 on: September 30, 2008, 08:52:44 PM »

MD: 57 Obama, 42 McCain

Baltimore County:  49 and change for both


Yep, and I'd say McCain will pull it off.



Fl : McCain 51 Obama 49

Hillsborough County : McCain 52 Obama 47
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Zarn
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« Reply #45 on: September 30, 2008, 09:05:54 PM »

New Jersey
(D) Barack Obama - 55.4%
(R) John McCain - 43.5%

Burlington County, NJ
(D) Barack Obama - 56.2%
(R) John McCain - 42.7%

Camden County, NJ (were I go to school)
(D) Barack Obama - 64.2%
(R) John McCain - 34.9%


Only Camden is about right... maybe. There is a lot of flux, but nothing indicates Obama by miles.

NJ
Obama- 50.7
McCain- 47.8

Burlington
Obama- 47.6
McCain- 48.8

This is assuming the national race tightens up, which I believe it will.

McCain winning Burlington County is perhaps the most comic aspect of this post, but the whole thing holds together quite nicely in the "amusing" category.

Bergen County, NJ
Obama: 52.9%
McCain: 46.3%

Lautenberg: 55.6%
Zimmer: 43.8%


New Jersey
Obama: 54.7%
McCain: 44.9%

Lautenberg: 54.4%
Zimmer: 44.6%

Laughable like your Bergen county results...
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RosettaStoned
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« Reply #46 on: October 01, 2008, 01:22:24 PM »

California:
Obama 54%
McCain 44%

Santa Barbara County:
Obama 53%
McCain 45%
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??????????
StatesRights
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« Reply #47 on: October 01, 2008, 01:23:26 PM »

California:
Obama 54%
McCain 44%

Santa Barbara County:
Obama 53%
McCain 45%

McCain won't preform better then Bush in CA?
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RosettaStoned
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« Reply #48 on: October 01, 2008, 01:34:31 PM »

I doubt it.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2008, 01:39:07 PM »

New York - Obama 58, McCain 41

Tompkins County - Obama 68, McCain 30
Suffolk County - Obama 51, McCain 48
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