Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania Tracking Poll Thread

[Rowan]

McCainOMentum!

No.

Monday, October 6:

Obama: 49 (-1)
Mccain: 38 (-2)

Ughh, this really really sucks.

[Aizen]

If McCain had any brains at all he would pull out of PA immediately

[Tender Branson]

If McCain had any brains at all he would pull out of PA immediately

I don't care. Let him continue his long road to ruin there. May the RNC sink another 20 Mio. in there and remain 10% behind ...

[Wiz in Wis]

If McCain had any brains at all he would pull out of PA immediately

If McCain pulled out here, he'd essentially signal to the electorate "I quit" and kill his chances here, not to mention every contested downticket race. He has to stay, just to keep up the impression that he thinks he can win the presidency.

[tokar]

Hey, let McCain think he has all the chance in the world in PA.

The more money he spends in PA the more money PA gets to spend...on its seniors - DOH!

PA education needs some help .  PA, in general, needs all the help it can get after the Turnpike toll lease fell through.

[Tender Branson]

The news is that Obama has taken a 12-point PA lead in today's Muhlenberg tracking release, which would be 2 points better than yesterday.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5visit.6620097oct08,0,4733508.story

[Tender Branson]

Thursday, October 9:

Obama - 51% (+1)
McCain - 38% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

Friday, October 10:

Obama - 50% (-1)
McCain - 39% (+1)

[J. J.]

Friday, October 10:

Obama - 50% (-1)
McCain - 39% (+1)

This is not a great poll.

[Lunar]

Isn't that exactly where the other polls have the state?

[Verily]

Isn't that exactly where the other polls have the state?

But Obama will only win Pennsylvania by 1.5 points.

[J. J.]

Isn't that exactly where the other polls have the state?

No, this just the gap closing a bit.  I don't think this is a great poll, even it it does show some tightening.

[tokar]

Friday, October 10:

Obama - 50% (-1)
McCain - 39% (+1)

This is not a great poll.

Considering that this tracking poll is in line with the polls released by the big guys, I'd say its a meaningful poll.

26-Sep +4
27-Sep +5
28-Sep +6 (+8 Franklin & Marhsall)
29-Sep +7 (+15 Quinnipiac)
30-Sep +8
1-Oct +7
2-Oct +9
3-Oct +10
4-Oct +12
5-Oct +10 (+15 SurveyUSA)
6-Oct +10 (+10 West Chester, +13 Rasmussen)
7-Oct +9 (+14 Strategic Vision)
8-Oct +12
9-Oct +13
10-Oct +11


Compared to the numbers from the big boys, hell even from the RIGHT LEANING SurveyUSA, the tracking numbers are actually a bit lower.  So if anything, it is an underestimate.

PA is deep in the tank for Obama...deal with it.

[J. J.]

Tokay, out of your list, you have two polls of any real consequence.  Even some of the poorer ones are out of the MOE.

[tokar]

Tokay, out of your list, you have two polls of any real consequence.  Even some of the poorer ones are out of the MOE.

Dude, are you serious?

Ya know, it'd be one thing if it was like
+3
+4
+5
+3
+12

Then you could call the +12 an outlier...
But the way things are going, I dont know how you can consider any of them an outlier.  And even if you do, the average is still pretty darn high:
For the month of October:
+14
+10
+13
+15

The average (unweighted by anything) is +13.  Lets just say the +15 is an outler...the unweighted average is still +12.33.  Not a big difference.

Go one step further.  Just head over to FiveThirtyEight, where the guy who runs the site takes out any bias and weighs the polls accordingly.
#1, he gives a lot of weight to the Muhlenberg tracking poll (the entire running of it, not just one data point)
#2, the most heavily weighted polls are the four most recent October polls (highlighted in yellow) and they are given pretty heavy weights.
#3, the average projected PA Obama victory is +10.1
#4, the MOE on that number is +-7.9.  +10.1 is outside of the MOE last I checked.

Hell, when the Muhlenberg tracking poll started the running 3 poll average was 6.33 (+6 SurveyUSA, +9 CNN, +4 Rasmussen).  And now where it is, the running 3 poll average is +12.33 (+14 Strategic Vision, +10 WCU, +13 Rasmussen).

Anyone who says that the Muhlenberg tracking poll is a poor gauge of the race in PA needs to get a clue.


Again, PA is so heavily in Obama's tank its not even an issue.  Why we are debating this is beyond me.   Why anyone would think PA would go to McCain is anyone's guess.



Whats funny is that if the tracking poll starts going in McCain's direction then you, and others, will flip-flop and say you think the tracking poll numbers are worthwhile.

[J. J.]

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.



 

[tokar]

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.

Look, as a liberal I hate SurveyUSA polls...they always have a right leaning bias and they always seem to mess up current trends on the site (e.g. three straight D+XXX polls in a state messed up by a stupid SurveyUSA poll showing R+1)...but they are still polls that I don't necessarily trash like you are doing with Muhlenberg, rather i wait until Nate Silver at 538.com reads and sorts out.  Nate removes all bias and weighs polls accordingly...so if that SurveyUSA poll is an outlier Nate will know.

In the case of Muhlenberg tracking polls, each individual data point weighs only 0.25 (which is very light).  But as a whole you see the weight is 1.25...a five day average ("T5").  So the fact that he gives a 5 day average such weight shows that this Muhlenberg tracking poll is no joke.
As Nate said when this poll came out:
"As with other polls, we do not completely throw out the old results when the tracking poll publishes a new result; instead, have we have a formula for discounting the weighting for past polling from the same firm."

So again, Muhlenberg is not trash as you would have it.  Sure a single point of 10 on a single day may not mean much, nor should it, but just look at the 5 day average then make judgments.  In this case, the 5 day average matches that of the daily point, so how you can just throw it out is beyond me.

[J. J.]

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.

Look, as a liberal I hate SurveyUSA polls...they always have a right leaning bias and they always seem to mess up current trends on the site (e.g. three straight D+XXX polls in a state messed up by a stupid SurveyUSA poll showing R+1)...but they are still polls that I don't necessarily trash like you are doing with Muhlenberg, rather i wait until Nate Silver at 538.com reads and sorts out.  Nate removes all bias and weighs polls accordingly...so if that SurveyUSA poll is an outlier Nate will know.

This doesn't have anything to do with ideology of the pollster, or even what poll says.  A Mulenberg poll is a university poll without any great track record.  Part of it is how the poll is conducted and part due to methodology used.

Sorry, but most university polls are given very little weight, as this one should.

[tokar]

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.

Look, as a liberal I hate SurveyUSA polls...they always have a right leaning bias and they always seem to mess up current trends on the site (e.g. three straight D+XXX polls in a state messed up by a stupid SurveyUSA poll showing R+1)...but they are still polls that I don't necessarily trash like you are doing with Muhlenberg, rather i wait until Nate Silver at 538.com reads and sorts out.  Nate removes all bias and weighs polls accordingly...so if that SurveyUSA poll is an outlier Nate will know.

This doesn't have anything to do with ideology of the pollster, or even what poll says.  A Mulenberg poll is a university poll without any great track record.  Part of it is how the poll is conducted and part due to methodology used.

Sorry, but most university polls are given very little weight, as this one should.

well you are alone in your mindset.  Many sites give this a lot of weight (538, Pollster, etc.) and use it to further fuel the notion that PA has like 0% chance to go for McCain. Hell, even Real Clear Politics, the conservative site which Nate Silver from 538 moated big time for their selectivity in polls, give the tracking poll weight and now PA is a SOLID +13.8 on RCP average: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data ...which is unheard of even for RCP standards.

[J. J.]

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.

Look, as a liberal I hate SurveyUSA polls...they always have a right leaning bias and they always seem to mess up current trends on the site (e.g. three straight D+XXX polls in a state messed up by a stupid SurveyUSA poll showing R+1)...but they are still polls that I don't necessarily trash like you are doing with Muhlenberg, rather i wait until Nate Silver at 538.com reads and sorts out.  Nate removes all bias and weighs polls accordingly...so if that SurveyUSA poll is an outlier Nate will know.

This doesn't have anything to do with ideology of the pollster, or even what poll says.  A Mulenberg poll is a university poll without any great track record.  Part of it is how the poll is conducted and part due to methodology used.

Sorry, but most university polls are given very little weight, as this one should.

well you are alone in your mindset.  Many sites give this a lot of weight (538, Pollster, etc.) and use it to further fuel the notion that PA has like 0% chance to go for McCain. Hell, even Real Clear Politics, the conservative site which Nate Silver from 538 moated big time for their selectivity in polls, give the tracking poll weight and now PA is a SOLID +13.8 on RCP average: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data ...which is unheard of even for RCP standards.

HAHA.  Even one of our most partisan members, BRTD, posted that he doesn't trust university polls. 

And don't confuse stating that a poll is bad with stating that the result will be different. 

Judging from Obama's campaign activities in, oh, the last six hours, he is worried about PA, i.e. 4 stops within five miles of my house.

[tokar]

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.

Look, as a liberal I hate SurveyUSA polls...they always have a right leaning bias and they always seem to mess up current trends on the site (e.g. three straight D+XXX polls in a state messed up by a stupid SurveyUSA poll showing R+1)...but they are still polls that I don't necessarily trash like you are doing with Muhlenberg, rather i wait until Nate Silver at 538.com reads and sorts out.  Nate removes all bias and weighs polls accordingly...so if that SurveyUSA poll is an outlier Nate will know.

This doesn't have anything to do with ideology of the pollster, or even what poll says.  A Mulenberg poll is a university poll without any great track record.  Part of it is how the poll is conducted and part due to methodology used.

Sorry, but most university polls are given very little weight, as this one should.

well you are alone in your mindset.  Many sites give this a lot of weight (538, Pollster, etc.) and use it to further fuel the notion that PA has like 0% chance to go for McCain. Hell, even Real Clear Politics, the conservative site which Nate Silver from 538 moated big time for their selectivity in polls, give the tracking poll weight and now PA is a SOLID +13.8 on RCP average: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data ...which is unheard of even for RCP standards.

HAHA.  Even one of our most partisan members, BRTD, posted that he doesn't trust university polls. 

And don't confuse stating that a poll is bad with stating that the result will be different. 

Judging from Obama's campaign activities in, oh, the last six hours, he is worried about PA, i.e. 4 stops within five miles of my house.

Its the remaining Kerry state that McCain is actually pouring money into in serious fashion.  It would be stupid for him not to campaign there.

On another note, he is campaigning in the 2nd most democratic city behind New York City (according to 2004 election results).  You are telling me he is worried about losing democratic base in the 2nd more democratic city in the country?  Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

Again, PA is so far in the tank for Obama that McCain should just pull out ASAP and focus on NOT losing states like VA, NC, IN, WV, OH, FL.  Every dollar he spends in PA is a waste and is detracting from his failing campaigns in the states I just listed.

Oh well, keep dreaming J.J...cause dreams are all you got at this point with all the polls showing Obama at +10 for PA.

[J. J.]

Its the remaining Kerry state that McCain is actually pouring money into in serious fashion.  It would be stupid for him not to campaign there.

On another note, he is campaigning in the 2nd most democratic city behind New York City (according to 2004 election results).  You are telling me he is worried about losing democratic base in the 2nd more democratic city in the country?  Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

If this was really good, Obama wouldn't be spending his time trying to run up the vote in Phila, period.  I hate to tell you this, but we elect by electoral votes.  Obama's only reason to campaign in Phila is to secure Pennsylvania.  No others.

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I know you are having a difficult time understanding this, but I will try to explain this to to you.  We are not talking about Obama win or losing only if this poll accurately, that means really, tells us if how well Obama is doing in PA.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.

Look, as a liberal I hate SurveyUSA polls...they always have a right leaning bias and they always seem to mess up current trends on the site (e.g. three straight D+XXX polls in a state messed up by a stupid SurveyUSA poll showing R+1)...but they are still polls that I don't necessarily trash like you are doing with Muhlenberg, rather i wait until Nate Silver at 538.com reads and sorts out.  Nate removes all bias and weighs polls accordingly...so if that SurveyUSA poll is an outlier Nate will know.

This doesn't have anything to do with ideology of the pollster, or even what poll says.  A Mulenberg poll is a university poll without any great track record.  Part of it is how the poll is conducted and part due to methodology used.

Sorry, but most university polls are given very little weight, as this one should.

well you are alone in your mindset.  Many sites give this a lot of weight (538, Pollster, etc.) and use it to further fuel the notion that PA has like 0% chance to go for McCain. Hell, even Real Clear Politics, the conservative site which Nate Silver from 538 moated big time for their selectivity in polls, give the tracking poll weight and now PA is a SOLID +13.8 on RCP average: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data ...which is unheard of even for RCP standards.

HAHA.  Even one of our most partisan members, BRTD, posted that he doesn't trust university polls. 

No. But you seem to love Franklin Marshall.

Whatever the case, if Obama is up 6-7 points nationwide, he's up by more than 1.5 points in Pennsylvania. It's just common sense.

[tokar]

I know you are having a difficult time understanding this, but I will try to explain this to to you.  We are not talking about Obama win or losing only if this poll accurately, that means really, tells us if how well Obama is doing in PA.

If you havent realized this over the past 2 elections, it is the way to win PA.  Win the 5 Philadelphia counties, win the Pittsburgh counties and you win PA.  And considering the central-PA counties are also in the tank as evidenced by the April Primary (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=42&f=0&off=0&elect=1 ) because of the young voter presence, it is impossible to think McCain has any chance whatsoever.
Add this with the fact that the Erie, PA congressional county is going to flip blue (or red according to USEA) and it makes for a difficult reality for any republican to face, even someone like yourself.

Ask yourself this...I am asking myself this right now too:
Do you really need Pennsylvania polls at this stage in the game?
1) PA was overwhelmingly against the Bush rubber stamp named *snaps fingers*...damn I'm already forgetting his name (thank god)...SANTORUM *slaps head* in 2006.  Why anyone would think that they would suddenly change their minds in another election year where the theme is "vote against Bush" is beyond me.
2) Southeastern PA now accounts for 40% of the Pennsylvania electorate.  Considering that this area is heavily democratic, enough so to overcome the 2004 partisan election, again how anyone can think PA will go red (or USEA blue) is also is mystery.  Include this with the fact that Philadelphia, a city of 1.4mil (about half of which turns out to vote) is the second most democratic city in the US...in the US!
3) The national tracking polls already show that the democratic base has united behind Obama.  With that said, Obama should have no problem picking up the democratic leaners in PA.  Add this to his strength in Centre and Union counties and it makes for a very strong case for an Obama victory in PA.  On a side, Obama won Lancaster county while Casey (in 2006) did not.

[J. J.]

If you havent realized this over the past 2 elections, it is the way to win PA.  Win the 5 Philadelphia counties, win the Pittsburgh counties and you win PA.  And considering the central-PA counties are also in the tank as evidenced by the April Primary (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=42&f=0&off=0&elect=1 ) because of the young voter presence, it is impossible to think McCain has any chance whatsoever.

You have not realized that if Obama were really up by ten points, he would not have to worry about turnout specifically in Philadelphia.

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I doubt if I'll be doing a resume for Phil English any time soon.

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Bush's margin increased in 2004 and Obama's track record is not particularly good here. 

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I'm also well aware that if PA were +10 points up, Obama wouldn't need to be in the state.

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Ah, they don't.  They show about 8 points nationally.  That isn't exceptionally solid, unless it holds.  So why is Obama, if everything is fine in PA, coming into PA?  If he wants to go to a close state, why not FL, VA, or GA.  Why is campaigning so strongly in PA, if everything is fine?