Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania Tracking Poll Thread

[Tender Branson]

Man, PA is tightening pretty rapidely !

But wake me up when McCain's down to 6 and I´ll be worried ...

[J. J.]

I'd be very very surprised if PA went for McCain.

Tokar, it's not a question of if Obama wins, but it is the margin.

What difference does the margin make?  10pts, 1pt, 0.1pt?  All margins = all or none victory for either candidate (which is how it should have been in the DEM primaries.  Had it been that way we would have had Clinton nominated).

Bush won Florida by 00.01%in 2000...and he won all 25 EV's...and the presidency.


I couldn't care less what the margin of victory is in PA.  I care about who wins it and the polls show that Obama is almost certain to be the victor.
Obviously a larger margin will show the pundits on the news channels that PA is leaning more and more democratic as the years pass, which is definitely nice, and that certainly changes the dynamic of the 2010 Senatorial race...but I care about "what have you done for me lately", and I just want to see PA is in the democratic column come November 5th.

Well, I am talking about how well this poll describes the result.  I've been predicting that ultimately Obama would win the state since mid September. 

[tokar]

Tuesday- October 20, 2008

Obama 52% (-1)
McCain 42% (+1)

I think you meant October 21 on that data point.


Wednesday - October 22, 2008
Obama 52% (NC)
McCain 41% (-1)

[Tender Branson]

McSurge is over. Or a few very pro-Obama samples are now out ...

[Tender Branson]

"The McCain campaign is increasingly banking on a win in Pennsylvania, even though Senator Obama has a double-digit lead in recent polls there:

Mr. McCain’s strategists insisted that the state and its 21 electoral votes were within reach and crucial to what they acknowledge is an increasingly narrow path to victory. They say that their own polls show Mr. McCain only seven or eight percentage points behind Mr. Obama. (The state polls that show Mr. Obama with a double-digit lead, all conducted in recent weeks, include surveys by Marist, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and The Allentown Morning Call.)

Mr. McCain’s strategists argue that their candidate has a dual appeal: to the pro-gun working-class voters in the western coal country, many of whom supported Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York in the Democratic primary, and to independents and moderates in the swing counties around Philadelphia."

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/22/the-early-word-the-ad-wars/

[J. J.]

The poll is not great; it's a general university poll without a good track record.

There seems to inordinate interest in PA by both candidates, which kind of tells me that it's not a ten point margin.

[tokar]

The poll is not great; it's a general university poll without a good track record.

There seems to inordinate interest in PA by both candidates, which kind of tells me that it's not a ten point margin.

Its not about margin.  Its about trends...

Trends show heavy Obama lean.

[Sam Spade]

Wednesday - October 23, 2008
Obama 52% (nc)
McCain 42% (+1)

Bumping around the mean a bit...

[Alcon]

This has actually been a remarkably stable poll, considering the sample size and pedigree.

[J. J.]

The poll is not great; it's a general university poll without a good track record.

There seems to inordinate interest in PA by both candidates, which kind of tells me that it's not a ten point margin.

Its not about margin.  Its about trends...

Trends show heavy Obama lean.

Actually, it has shown very little movement.

[Tender Branson]

Friday - October 24, 2008

Obama 52% (nc)
McCain 40% (-2)

[tokar]

The poll is not great; it's a general university poll without a good track record.

There seems to inordinate interest in PA by both candidates, which kind of tells me that it's not a ten point margin.

Its not about margin.  Its about trends...

Trends show heavy Obama lean.

Actually, it has shown very little movement.

*slaps head*...boy sometimes I wonder if you are just egging me on or if you really just dont get it...

Yes it has shown very little movement, maintaining "strong obama".

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - October 25, 2008

Obama 52% (nc)
McCain 41% (+1)

Obama will return to PA on Monday & Tuesday to campaign and keep his double-digit lead.

[Democratic Hawk]

Mr. McCain’s strategists argue that their candidate has a dual appeal: to the pro-gun working-class voters in the western coal country, many of whom supported Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York in the Democratic primary, and to independents and moderates in the swing counties around Philadelphia."

Well, if SUSA, is anything to go by. Obama seems to be doing reasonably well among Republicans in PA, just as McCain is among Democrats

As for Pennsylvania's moderates, Obama is kicking McCain's butt. When McCain capitulated to the right of his party by passing over the likes of former PA governor Tom Ridge for running mate, he, effectively, told the center to f***-off, I don't need you

Dave

[Wall St. Wiz]

Saturday - October 25, 2008

Obama 52% (nc)
McCain 41% (+1)

Obama will return to PA on Monday & Tuesday to campaign and keep his double-digit lead.

Why spend two days in a state a week before the election if you are winning by double digits? He is not spending any time in Wisconsin or Michigan where is he also supposed to be up double digits.  Logically at this point he should be 100% on offense in states Bush won in 2004.

[Keystone Phil]

Obama will return to PA on Monday & Tuesday to campaign and keep his double-digit lead.

Loving that spin!

[tokar]

Obama will return to PA on Monday & Tuesday to campaign and keep his double-digit lead.

Loving that spin!

What spin?  His lead is still 10+ points, and I doubt the number will change come monday (as polls usually dont come out on Saturday).

Last I checked the number 10 is "double digits".

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - October 26, 2008

Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 41% (nc)

[Keystone Phil]

Obama will return to PA on Monday & Tuesday to campaign and keep his double-digit lead.

Loving that spin!

What spin?  His lead is still 10+ points, and I doubt the number will change come monday (as polls usually dont come out on Saturday).

Last I checked the number 10 is "double digits".

The spin is that he's coming here to "keep his double digit lead." He obviously felt the need to post that because of the numerous stories about Obama not really thinking he's ahead by that much.

[tokar]

Obama will return to PA on Monday & Tuesday to campaign and keep his double-digit lead.

Loving that spin!

What spin?  His lead is still 10+ points, and I doubt the number will change come monday (as polls usually dont come out on Saturday).

Last I checked the number 10 is "double digits".

The spin is that he's coming here to "keep his double digit lead." He obviously felt the need to post that because of the numerous stories about Obama not really thinking he's ahead by that much.

I'm confused.  How is it "spin" when the numbers exist?

"Spin" is one thing when the numbers don't favor an individual/party and they spin it to make it seem like they are good for them (e.g. MSNBC claiming victory because they win the "all important 25-54 demo" but losing in total viewers).

The internal +2 poll was from Oct 14...or the news at least.  We haven't heard anything since, so how does any of us know that it is still +2?  How do you know it was not some fake release to egg McCain into wasting time here?

http://vompolitik.blogspot.com/2008/10/pennsylvania-admiral-ackbar.html

[Keystone Phil]

Obama will return to PA on Monday & Tuesday to campaign and keep his double-digit lead.

Loving that spin!

What spin?  His lead is still 10+ points, and I doubt the number will change come monday (as polls usually dont come out on Saturday).

Last I checked the number 10 is "double digits".

The spin is that he's coming here to "keep his double digit lead." He obviously felt the need to post that because of the numerous stories about Obama not really thinking he's ahead by that much.

I'm confused.  How is it "spin" when the numbers exist?

"Spin" is one thing when the numbers don't favor an individual/party and they spin it to make it seem like they are good for them (e.g. MSNBC claiming victory because they win the "all important 25-54 demo" but losing in total viewers).

The internal +2 poll was from Oct 14...or the news at least.  We haven't heard anything since, so how does any of us know that it is still +2?  How do you know it was not some fake release to egg McCain into wasting time here?

http://vompolitik.blogspot.com/2008/10/pennsylvania-admiral-ackbar.html

You don't understand what I'm trying to say.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Phil is basically saying that believing the polls of PA makes you a hack and any non-hack believes the race is much closer than all the polls show.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil is basically saying that believing the polls of PA makes you a hack and any non-hack believes the race is much closer than all the polls show.

I need you to do me a little favor on Election night: Celebrate by playing in traffic. On a highway. While drunk.

It will be so worth it.

[Tender Branson]

Monday - October 27, 2008

Obama 53% (nc)
McCain 40% (-1)

[Brittain33]

Monday - October 27, 2008

Obama 53% (nc)
McCain 40% (-1)

The McCain rallies will continue until morale improves!