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  Talk Elections
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  2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL: Survey USA: McCain 48, Obama 47
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Author Topic: FL: Survey USA: McCain 48, Obama 47  (Read 1790 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: September 29, 2008, 12:09:55 pm »

New Poll: Florida President by Survey USA on 2008-09-28

Summary: D: 47%, R: 48%, I: 3%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Topline Numbers

McCain 48%

Obama 47%

Other 3%

Undecided 2%



Usual caveat: SUSA really doesn't know how to poll Florida, imho.
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SPQR
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2008, 12:14:33 pm »

Indies at 3%?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2008, 12:17:16 pm »


SUSA always has high indy numbers...
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2008, 12:21:56 pm »

New Poll: Florida President by Survey USA on 2008-09-28

Summary: D: 47%, R: 48%, I: 3%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

<b>Topline Numbers</b>

McCain 48%

Obama 47%

Other 3%

Undecided 2%



<i>Usual caveat: SUSA really doesn't know how to poll Florida, imho.</i>

I'll take it.  Florida's a tough one for a Democrat. 
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2008, 12:23:14 pm »

I highly doubt Obama is winning males and McCain females anywhere. Other than that the results of the poll look perfectly reasonable.
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Rowan
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2008, 12:23:51 pm »

New Poll: Florida President by Survey USA on 2008-09-28

Summary: D: 47%, R: 48%, I: 3%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

<b>Topline Numbers</b>

McCain 48%

Obama 47%

Other 3%

Undecided 2%



<i>Usual caveat: SUSA really doesn't know how to poll Florida, imho.</i>

I'll take it.  Florida's a tough one for a Democrat. 

Just ask Al Gore. Tongue
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2008, 12:24:49 pm »

New Poll: Florida President by Survey USA on 2008-09-28

Summary: D: 47%, R: 48%, I: 3%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

<b>Topline Numbers</b>

McCain 48%

Obama 47%

Other 3%

Undecided 2%



<i>Usual caveat: SUSA really doesn't know how to poll Florida, imho.</i>

I'll take it.  Florida's a tough one for a Democrat. 

Just ask Al Gore. Tongue

Yea, and he did just about as good as he could have done. 
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Sbane
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2008, 12:30:52 pm »

blacks 79-21 Obama. Slight reverse bradley effect?
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2008, 12:41:49 pm »

Florida and Ohio are really stubborn for the Democrats...just as much as Michigan and Pennsylvania for Republicans. Even with Obama finishing his peak in polls following the economic crisis, McCain would still likely win Ohio, Missouri and Florida.
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Verily
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2008, 01:45:33 pm »

Some weirdness, like the obviously wrong inverse gender gap and some funny things going on with the age groups. Still, probably within two points either way of the final result.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2008, 02:10:00 pm »

blacks 79-21 Obama. Slight reverse bradley effect?

No, its probably just wrong.
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2008, 02:11:51 pm »

blacks 79-21 Obama. Slight reverse bradley effect?

Sample size of 60. People need to remember subsamples are not polls in and of themselves.
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Sbane
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2008, 04:39:10 pm »

blacks 79-21 Obama. Slight reverse bradley effect?

Sample size of 60. People need to remember subsamples are not polls in and of themselves.

True but it does affect the topline doesnt it. It's just weird because I have seen similar samples for AA's in other polls in other states and I wonder if some blacks might be lying to pollsters. We will see.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2008, 06:58:16 pm »

Republican 42% (41%): McCain 83% (81%); Obama 15% (17%)

Democrat 40% (43%): McCain 15% (23%); Obama 83% (71%)

Independent 16% (15%): McCain 43% (49%); Obama 45% (47%)

Conservative 32% (32%): McCain 84% (85%); Obama 12% (14%)

Moderate 34% (39%): McCain 39% (44%); Obama 57% (54%)

Liberal 18% (17%): McCain 16% (18%); Obama 77% (73%)

Top issue - the economy 65% (60%): Obama 50% (53%); McCain 47% (43%)

(denotes SUSA, Sep. 16-17, 2008)
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Ronnie
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2008, 07:00:03 pm »

Florida is a pretty polarized state.  It surprises me that when Obama is up by 6-8 points, they are still tied in Florida.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2008, 07:36:38 pm »

Florida is a pretty polarized state.  It surprises me that when Obama is up by 6-8 points, they are still tied in Florida.

Obama up 6-8?  Maybe after the debate/bailout bill, but not before Friday (3 points is the answer).  State polls can lag a little so give it a few more days.
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emailking
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2008, 11:04:04 pm »

blacks 79-21 Obama. Slight reverse bradley effect?

Sample size of 60. People need to remember subsamples are not polls in and of themselves.

True but it does affect the topline doesnt it.

A subsample only matters to the overall poll if they do weighting on the subsample. In theory the participants are random and then everything we see as a special subsample is completely meaningless. The black/white vote may be off, but then so may be the the votes of of the 60-68 year old men who color their hair. It all averages out to within the overall MOE.

Now if in this poll they take the vote of blacks and inflate/deflate it to account for sampling difficulties, then it matters.
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??????????
StatesRights
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2008, 11:13:24 pm »

I still have it as a lean McCain. I don't understand why, but apparently the campaign isn't giving the local offices much money at all. Hell, I had to pay 5$ for my yard sign and they are charging for buttons, etc. the only thing free are bumper stickers. It wasn't at ALL like this in 2004. Not sure if it means :

-McCain is just giving up on Florida
-McCain feels comfortable about Florida
-My particular region is secure enough not to worry about
-Total campaign disorganization
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Alcon
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2008, 11:24:24 pm »

State polls can lag a little so give it a few more days.

I still see no fathomable logical reason for that.
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Lunar
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« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2008, 11:38:09 pm »

State polls can lag a little so give it a few more days.

I still see no fathomable logical reason for that.

Well, for one thing, they are usually taken some days earlier than the day they are published...
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Alcon
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« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2008, 06:05:51 pm »

State polls can lag a little so give it a few more days.

I still see no fathomable logical reason for that.

Well, for one thing, they are usually taken some days earlier than the day they are published...

True, but I think Sam means that they have an additional lag beyond that...
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Lunar
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« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2008, 06:07:38 pm »

And they are also far more sporadic (not taken every day), and conducted by varying pollsters (Not usually Rasmussen/Gallup), both might create some additional lag.

I'm not sure beyond that though.
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