Lowest landslide
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  Lowest landslide
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Poll
Question: Which is the least number of electoral votes which would be a landslide?
#1
335+
 
#2
345+
 
#3
360+
 
#4
380+
 
#5
425+
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 35

Author Topic: Lowest landslide  (Read 4825 times)
°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« on: September 27, 2008, 11:13:30 AM »

A landslide may better be measured by the popular vote, but since it is the electoral college which picks the president, this polls uses that.. I would say 360+
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2008, 11:57:42 AM »

We may be calling 2008 the Obama landslide in relative terms after I think he wins with 53% of the popular vote and 349 electoral votes.
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JSojourner
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2008, 11:59:19 AM »

The term landslide offends me a lot less than the term, "mandate".  Like in 2004, when President Bush said he was given a mandate from the voters.  Please...
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Fritz
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2008, 02:30:27 PM »

I would define a "landslide" as winning the popular vote by >10%.  This happened in 1984, 1972, 1964, both Ike elections, 3 of 4 FDR elections, Hoover, Coolidge, Harding, and TR.  Of these, TR got 336 out of 476 EV, Coolidge got 382 of 531- these are the only "landslide" in the last century under 400 EV.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2008, 02:39:57 PM »

When I hear "landslide," I think of FDR in 1932 and 1936, Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956, LBJ in 1964, Nixon in 1972, and Reagan in 1980 and 1984. The popular definition of a landslide seems to be around 350 EVs however, as most people consider Bush 88 and Clinton 92 and 96 to have been landslides.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2008, 02:45:34 PM »

When I hear "landslide," I think of FDR in 1932 and 1936, Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956, LBJ in 1964, Nixon in 1972, and Reagan in 1980 and 1984. The popular definition of a landslide seems to be around 350 EVs however, as most people consider Bush 88 and Clinton 92 and 96 to have been landslides.
Reagan in 1980? Lol. Certainly not landslide territory (and only barely wider than 88 and 96.)
Unless we take "landslide" back to its original meaning and take it to indicate *movement* (whether compared to the previous election or to expectations during the campaign.) In which case, 1992 certainly qualifies but 1936 doesn't... and 1980 and 1984 are of similar magnitude...

So yeah, whatever. This election won't be describable as one unless all the closeish Rep states flip, and won't be honestly describable as one, full stop.
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charltonNick
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2008, 03:53:50 PM »

British newspaper reporting that Democratic team sniffing a possible landslide on the cards....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3089433/Barack-Obamas-top-team-believes-he-can-win-White-House-by-a-landslide.html
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2008, 04:24:19 PM »

The popular vote matters too. 1904 was a pretty extreme landslide despite winning the EV only 336-140. Meanwhile 1988 wasn't so much of a landslide despite winning the EV 426-111.
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Sensei
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2008, 04:29:08 PM »

It depends on what states go where...

If a republican...

1. sweeps the south

2. sweeps the mountain west

3. carries New Mexico, Arizona, Washington, Oregon

4. carries Illinois, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin

5. carries Pennsylvania

6. carries New York. California, Florida, Texas

7. carries atleast four of these six states: Connecticut, Massachussetts, Vermont, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey
Democrats can landslide too.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2008, 04:33:11 PM »

To me, a landslide is 350+ EV's, and 54%+ of the PV.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2008, 04:47:01 PM »

landslide is NOT under 400 in my opinion.  Any option lower than 400 is actually nothing more than a solid victory.  I still don't view 1980 as a landslide.  Only landslide since 1972 is 1984, in my opinion.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2008, 06:39:28 PM »

For a two person race:
300+ = mandate
400+ = landslide
500+ = Atlantis size landslide

I count 1996 as a Clinton mandate as even if Perot's voters had split 3 to 1 in favor of Dole, Clinton would still have gotten 348 EV.

1992 wasn't a mandate for anyone, as with even a more modest 2 to 1 split Clinton would have lost to Bush with only 264 EV.

1988 and 1984 were landslides, with 1984 of Atlantean proportions.

So was 1980.  After all, even if every single Anderson voter had cast their vote for Carter instead (which would never have happened) Reagan still would have gotten 331 EV, and with a more reasonable 3 to 1 split, Reagan gets 408 EV's
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2008, 12:10:14 AM »

1964?
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2008, 09:51:03 PM »


1940, 1944?
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Meeker
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« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2008, 05:06:48 AM »

Starting in 1932...

Landslides: 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, 1952, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1980, 1984

Victories: 1948, 1968, 1976, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2004

WTF?: 1960, 2000


Yea, yea, there's a few that might need to be reclassified.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2008, 11:59:14 AM »

Starting in 1932...

Landslides: 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, 1952, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1980, 1984

Victories: 1948, 1968, 1976, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2004

WTF?: 1960, 2000


Yea, yea, there's a few that might need to be reclassified.

Landslides: 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, 1952, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1984, 1988
Victories: 1948, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2004
WTF: 1960, 2000
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Platypus
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« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2008, 12:43:35 PM »

Simple, landslide is 55% of the vote, regardless of third candidates, or 10% above any candidates, and an electoral college win. Theroetically, a landlside is possible with 270 EVs by this definition, but it's so excpetionally unlikely i'm comfortable to keep it.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2008, 12:08:34 AM »

I would not call 1944 a landslide. Dewey nearly got 100 electoral votes and the margins in many states that went for FDR outside of the south were small. I would not call this a landslide in my opinion.

Gporter, FDR won 36/48 states, or 75% of the states; of those 36 states, he won 27 states by more than 5%, and he won the popular vote by 7.5%.  That certainly counts as a landslide.
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bhouston79
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2008, 10:19:54 PM »

I guess I would consider a landslide winning by at least 10% in the popular vote and winning at least 400 EVs.  By this measure the following elections since 1932 have been landslides:

1932, 1936, 1952, 1956, 1964, 1972, & 1984

The following elections were comfortable victories, but not quite landslides IMHO:

1940, 1944, 1980, 1988, 1992, & 1996

The following elections were close:

1948, 1960, 1968, 1976, 2000, & 2004

IMHO this year will fall into the comfortable victory category, with Obama winning by 5 - 6% in the popular vote and winning somewhere in the neighborhood of 350 EVs.  The election will officially be called at about 11:00 p.m. EST when the polls out west close.  Of course I could be wrong and McCain may pull off an improbable comeback.  I hope not, but we'll see.
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