NC: Rasmussen: Obama takes moves ahead in North Carolina!

[Sam Spade]

Yes, but it helps very much that close to 30% of the electorate is black.

Is it really that high?

This comes up every week or so. I think the number is 19% but there's a bad exit poll from 2004 claiming 26%. Anyway, an increase in African American voting from Kerry to Obama will move you a couple of points in isolation from everything else, but no more than that.

Folks, this is one of those places where I say - if the internals are *interesting*, they are *interesting*. 

[KeyKeeper]

Yes, but it helps very much that close to 30% of the electorate is black.

Is it really that high?

This comes up every week or so. I think the number is 19% but there's a bad exit poll from 2004 claiming 26%. Anyway, an increase in African American voting from Kerry to Obama will move you a couple of points in isolation from everything else, but no more than that.

Folks, this is one of those places where I say - if the internals are *interesting*, they are *interesting*. 

What are the internals? I can't find them, could you post them?

[Nym90]

Yes, but it helps very much that close to 30% of the electorate is black.

Is it really that high?

This comes up every week or so. I think the number is 19% but there's a bad exit poll from 2004 claiming 26%. Anyway, an increase in African American voting from Kerry to Obama will move you a couple of points in isolation from everything else, but no more than that.

Folks, this is one of those places where I say - if the internals are *interesting*, they are *interesting*. 

So for example, blacks are 35 percent of the vote?

[JohnCA246]

well I don't know what to think now....

[Sam Spade]

Yes, but it helps very much that close to 30% of the electorate is black.

Is it really that high?

This comes up every week or so. I think the number is 19% but there's a bad exit poll from 2004 claiming 26%. Anyway, an increase in African American voting from Kerry to Obama will move you a couple of points in isolation from everything else, but no more than that.

Folks, this is one of those places where I say - if the internals are *interesting*, they are *interesting*. 

So for example, blacks are 35 percent of the vote?

Nah, if you trust the 2004 Exit poll there, you're ok.  I'm thinking of other demographic attributes, like age groups...

[Brittain33]

What are the internals? I can't find them, could you post them?

It's proprietary information he has a premium member, so he can't duplicate them here.

If he wanted to tell us why they were "interesting," I'm sure he'd be within his rights to do so, but that wouldn't be as much fun for him.

[KeyKeeper]

OH, Obama is winning older people, but not yonger people?

[Rowan]

Obama getting demolished 2-1 among young voters and in a statistical tie among older voters.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obama getting demolished 2-1 among young voters and in a statistical tie among older voters.

Well that's just silly

[Rowan]

Obama getting demolished 2-1 among young voters and in a statistical tie among older voters.

Well that's just silly

Which makes the whole poll just silly.

[KeyKeeper]

Didn't another poll for NC came out with the same results with the age group? If so maybe there is some truth behind it.

[Eraserhead]

...

[Person Man]

I mean, this poll seems dubious, but it is in agreement with two other polls that show that North Carolina is VERY close.

[Verily]

Didn't another poll for NC came out with the same results with the age group? If so maybe there is some truth behind it.

It could maybe have a grain of truth if young black voters just aren't voting, but older black voters have extraordinary turnout. More likely, it's statistical noise within the subsamples.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

SUBSAMPLE MOE
SUBSAMPLE MOE
SUBSAMPLE MOE
SUBSAMPLE MOE
SUBSAMPLE MOE

[Sam Spade]

SUBSAMPLE MOE
SUBSAMPLE MOE
SUBSAMPLE MOE
SUBSAMPLE MOE
SUBSAMPLE MOE

Unfortunately, it's not even within that.  I wouldn't be piping up if it were otherwise.

[Boris]

...

[Aizen]

Obama leading in a NC poll was bound to happen sooner or later... statistically speaking

[Tender Branson]

Awesome, but hardly true.

[Boris]

According to fivethirtyeight, Rassy is the one of two firms since July to show Obama with a lead in NC. The other is Zogby Interactive.

Some of the numbers lately (Obama doing better than Udal in CO, losing NH while winning NC) makes me question the Rassy's credibiity....

[Rococo4]

well lets wait and see what the newest zogby interactive has to say before we jump to any conclusions..............

[KeyKeeper]

First off, has the election happen yet? We don't know if Sen. Obama wil win NC or not. So, to Rasmussen putting out crapy poll is kinda stupid. Once the election is over, then we can look back say things like that.

[auburntiger]

This poll is about as believable as the ones that showed Obama up in Alaska, North Dakota, and Montana...in other words, this is the most joke poll this whole campaign season!

McCain will win North Carolina, yesterday, today, and on November 4.

Back in 2004, the polls on this site avergaged out to show Bush's final margin of victory to be 8%. He ended up winning by 12.5%.

Now, NC is a tie...which means McCain wins by at least 5-6% in the end. I predict 7% in the end with Obama's ceiling being 46%. If he barely wins nationally, he'll get 47%. If he's outside the margin of error, he might get 48%, but no more than that...not this year.

[Firefly]

I'm not saying that this poll is accurate, but if it is, this could, at least partially, explain the huge shift from 2004:

Voter Registration January 2008 - September 2008

Democrats  +194,000
Republicans +28,500
Independents  +140,000
African American +121,400
Hispanic  +15,000
Other +15,000

Source=http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR/VR%20Stats/vr_stats_main.asp

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama 49%: For Obama 39.69% (81%); against McCain 6.86% (14%)

McCain 47%: For McCain, 30.55% (65%); against Obama 12. 69% (27%)