ME: Survey USA: Obama Leads ME by 5%

[Lunar]

I said this about the SUSA poll that showed Obama +11 in IA.


It seems SUSA might be using a methodology that prizes...ah.. excitement.. over accuracy at this point in the game?  They never seem to produce a "blah" poll, everything is either showing WA/ME/whatever within the margin of error or swing states blasting away from competitiveness

[Lunar]

675 isn't that bad for a state poll.

I don't have anything concrete, but obviously more people will want to hire you if your polls create exciting news stories, and this far out it doesn't really matter what your poll says since you can't get proven wrong.

SUSA just never has a boring poll.  If you have to always go to the outer reaches of the MoE to get a reasonable result, it's suspicious.  It's not like the "true result" is equally likely to fall anywhere within the MoE, it's just a 95% confidence interval.

It's not just this poll, but also NC (M+20), VA (O+6), IA (O+11), WA (O+4), and a bunch of 2006 races I looked into where SUSA would consistently be 5% off every time.