French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008

[Hash]

The deadline for motions was today, so I guess it's time to start this sucker.

The leadership race follows a very complex process that involves a lot of steps and meetings and so forth.

Hierarchy

• 161,404 militants (members)
• about 4,000 sections (uniting militants in cities, factory, neighborhood. Atleast 5 members with an elected leader).
• 102 Federations (One for each department and one for French citizens abroad. Led by an elected first secretary). A lot of the sections are led by influential party bosses (Guerini comes to mind in the very powerful Bouches-du-Rhone federation).
• 306 councillors in the National Council (the party's Parliament that meets 4 times a year. Composed of 102 federal first secretaries and 204 members designated during party congresses)
• Bureau etc. (57 members in the bureau, between 20-30 in the secretariat) are designated by the Nat. Council on the advice of the first secretary
• First Secretary elected by militants in the sections.

Dates

• September 23, 2008: Limit date for deposing motions to the National Council.
• November 6-9, 2008: Sections vote on motions. The federal congresses then designate delegates to go to the Congress, based proportionally on the motions results.
• November 14-16, 2008: Congress in Reims. In 2005, there were 614 delegates and members by right (council and bureau members, MNAs, Senators. 849 in 2005).
• November 20-21, 2008: Leadership election by militants in sections.
• November 22, 2008: Bureau and Secretariat designated by the National Council on the advice of the leader.

Motions
There are six motions (5 in 2005)

• Royal's motion (led by Gerard Collomb, Mayor of Lyon)
• Delanoe's motion
• Aubry's motion
• Hamon's motion
• Utopia motion (which got 1.02% in 2005)
• a miscellaneous "ecologist pole"

Likely candidates

• Ségolène Royal, President of Poitou-Charentes
• Bertrand Delanoë, Mayor of Paris
• Benoît Hamon, MEP
• Martine Aubry, Mayor of Paris

Old Congress results since Epinay '71: http://www.france-politique.fr/congres-ps.htm

[Hash]

CSA poll on PS leaners/members

Delanoe 30%
Royal 29%
Aubry 18%
Moscovici 6%
Valls 5%
Dray 4%

[Hash]

There are more maps of 2005 on my site. I think I posted some of them here too on the defunct French elections maps thread.

http://www.freewebs.com/franceelgeo/2005.htm

[Hash]

Lang's not running?

All the other prominent Socialists are useless hacks.

No. After what he did at the Congress, 95% of the party hates him as a traitor, and Lang is a useless opportunist. He'll endorse the winner, even if in the past he said that that person was a piece of shit. (In 2006, he endorsed Royal despite almost calling her a bitch in a book).

BTW, the text of the 6 motions are here: http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2008/09/25/les-motions-du-ps_1099577_823448.html.

I'm sad Moscovici or Valls didn't run in the end.

[Hash]

Federation leaders: Delanoë 33, Royal 28, Aubry 26, Hamon 3

This be the most important. Since these people have power and some rule their federations like party machines.

[Hash]

Julien Dray says he's not ruling out a run for First Secretary, despite endorsing Royal's motion.

BTW, I think she's on drugs.

[Hash]

IFOP poll for First Secretary.

Delanoë 44%
Aubry 22%
Royal 18%
Hamon 6%

lol.

[Hash]

IFOP poll for First Secretary.

Delanoë 44%
Aubry 22%
Royal 18%
Hamon 6%

lol.

That's among members of all parties. Among "Socialist sympathizers," the result is tighter, though still a large lead for Delanoë:

Delanoë 43%
Aubry 28%
Royal 24%
Hamon 2%

The poll was taken last weekend, September 25-26.

Ah. This is still an awful result for Royal. Apparently her event for mentally challenged people didn't work out.

[Hash]

This totally flew over me.

The crazy lady is doing surprisingly well, but Hamon is the big surprise here.

Anybody know which feds voted today?

Who on Earth is Hamon?

A quasi-Trot.

[Hash]

The Le Drian endorsement seemed to have done wonders in Bretagne for Delanoe.

Impressive results for the eco-socialists in Ille-et-Vilaine, 12%. The departmental president endorsed them, though.

Basse Normandie: Hamon leads in Manche

He won all three Socialists in the Manche!

[Hash]

The article is unclear whether or not the N-PdC voted today or not.

A map will be interesting come Sunday or whenever they announce all 102 fed results.

[Hash]

All departmental federations voted in the evening of Nov. 6th.

But, up to now, results aren't in in Cher and in overseas territories. Nothing is yet published by the Socialist Party.
I think they worry a lot of local results will be contested, especially if Delanoë and Aubry are within a small gap in the hundreds or the low thousands.....
So, we'll have to wait a bit !
But less than for Missouri pres. and MN sen. !!

Apparently the PS is worrying about fraud.

Anyway, these results are awful for the Socialist Party.

. That's all those jokes deserve.

Delanoë was sunk by the "old" image of Hollande and is now deeply weakened as he is the main loser. And Lionel Jospin, mentor of Delanoë, didn't even bother to vote yesterday....

Delanoë led an awful campaign and the image painted of him by Les Guignols of being unable to leave Paris seems to be true. IIRC, he didn't campaign much outside of Paris.

Hamon benefited from the financial crisis, but what can he do ? He can't lead the Socialist Party. What is more, today, Mélenchon and Dolez, 2 leftists who endorsed him, have announced that they leave the PS and will create a new leftist party. Sure, they won't have many troops, but this cut a bit the strength of Hamon's motion and, in the medias, this will have an influence.

New party? Lolz. Gotta love the French far-left.

Aubry does quite well, but she is mainly supported by Fabius (around 20% of the PS), so what can she really do ? And Hamon will refuse to let her lead the left of the party. Hamon's relative success is a problem for her.

Does Hamon like Aubry?

Royal is celebrated by the medias as the winner, but who will rally her ? Delanoë is too weak and he hates her. Hollande cannot leave the Delanoë motion (and what does he represent alone ?).

Everybody hates Royal, most importantly Delanoë and Aubry.

"Rebellious" motions (Royal and Hamon) cannot make a majority and there are too far away ideologically.

Royal would never team up with Hamon, unless she is even more of a dirty opportunist than I thought in the first place (which wouldn't surprise me).

"Traditional" motions (Delanoë and Aubry) cannot make a majority alone. And they are too much on a par.... One day, there will be a problem, at least to choose a first secretary who is anything else than a lame duck.

I heard somewhere that Delanoë and Aubry get along, but it's French politics and everybody is an egomaniac.

"Left" motions (Aubry and Hamon) cannot make a majority.

If they could take a majority, they would hypothetically be good together, but then again, ego.

Aubry and Royal cannot agree: Fabius and Royal are arch enemies and Aubry can't stand Royal.

You're too nice. Aubry despises Royal. Kind of like me and Arnaud Montebourg. Aubry would rather join the UMP than work with Royal.

There are only 2 possible combinations:

1. the anti-Royal majority: Delanoë-Aubry-Fabius-Hamon. It's really possible, but it won't solve problems, notably who will be there candidate for the post of first secretary ? Difficult, as Delanoë's and Aubry's motions are on a par.... And wouldn't Hollande, Moscovici and some former supporters of Rocard (who rallied Delanoë) leave this majority to support the more moderate Royal ?
This is the likeliest solution I think, but not the more sustainable in the long term.... Fights would be left for the future....

Agreed. For now, it seems like the most plausible coalition.

2. the reformist and moderate majority: Royal-Valls-Moscovici-Hollande-Delanoë. A sort of re-creation of mitterrandist club.... minus the fabiusians, rallied to the heir of mauroyists (Aubry) and plus the former rocardians.
Politically, it sounds logical. BUT, considering personal aspects, it sounds very hard: Delanoë and Royal hate each other. And it will be regarded too much as an attempt to re-create the unsavvy Hollande majorities of recent years.

Really, these numbers are awful for the Socialists: had Royal won with 35% and Hamon with only 15%, it would have been very different for her; had Delanoë and Aubry made 30 each, even with Royal at 35%, they would have easily put Royal aside.

Could sound plausible on paper, as you said, but then again, ego and feuds.

Whichever coalition wins, this means feud, feud, feud.

[Hash]

You're right: feud is the word of the day....

Mélenchon and Marc Dolez (a deputy from the Nord department) want to emulate Die Linke. But maybe it's too late now that all the party, even Royal, and even the "evil Sarkozy" speak with leftist tones...

Lol. Have fun with that, guys.

Still be interesting if their idea comes about and the effect it has, standing from a political junkie's PoV.

Hamon and Aubry may agree on the paper. But it's not their interest.
I think Aubry initially wanted to be in the center of the party: Hamon-Emmanuelli-Mélenchon, Cambadélis (left strauss-kahnian) and Fabius at her left, Royal-Collomb-Valls, Hollande, Moscovici (right strauss-kahnian) and Delanoë (with former jospinists and rocardians) at her right.

She talked a bit about the 35 heures and all that, and that's more a leftie thing to say.

We must remember that, few months ago, Delanoë write the L-word ("libéral", in the European sense: Tocqueville in politics, Adam Smith in economics; but of course, Delanoë was referring only to the former).

The L-word in the PS is like the F-word.

So, Aubry, who began to campaign late, was forced to make an alliance with Fabius and some strauss-kahnians because it was what was left.... Montebourg rallied her after (please note that Montebourg is completely outsided now: he has changed too many times.... "New Socialist Party" with the left wing, Royal, then Aubry and the so-called "reconstructeurs".... And Montebourg is too ideological: during a recent meeting of the Association des Départements de France -he's now president of the Conseil général de Saône-et-Loire- many presidents from other departments, from any aisle of the political spectrum, were irritated because he talks about Sarkozy and national politics and not about local affairs and lobbying in favor of "le département" as a threatened institution).

Arnaud Montebourg is a disgusting piece of human trash, a worthless hack, an opportunistic scumbag, and stupid hypocrite. One would see that I hate him.

But ever since Ayrault trounced him in a PS primary for SRC group chairman and the passage of the institutional reform (he was at the head of the PS crusade against it), I haven't seen him yell on the nightly news anymore and seems to have died off. Good riddance, scumbag.

Moreover, I feel (but that's just a feeling) that Hamon and Razzye Hammadi (another former leader of the MJS,  the leftist Mouvement des Jeunes Socialistes, the PS's youth vehicle) would be more prepared to make a tactical and short-term alliance with Royal than with Aubry, just to reinforce themselves inside the party and, later, become the left wing in a 2-wings party.
During the presidential campaign, Hamon, Hammadi and the MJS were strong supporters of Royal. Between them and "Désirs d'avenir", a movement of Royal's fans, there was a little war to prove who is the more loyal and active....

The MJS is quite leftie indeed and disturbed.

An anti-Royal majority with Hamon as the least opposed candidate for the first secretariate is quite likely: a fabiusian, like Bartolone, wouldn't be agreed on by Delanoë and former jospinists; Delanoë would reject Aubry and Aubry would reject Delanoë; Michel Sapin is unknown and weak and too "hollandish" in his manners; Cambadélis is unknown and would be regarded, inside the PS as holding the party temporarily just to give it to Strauss-Kahn in 2011, outside the PS as a former Trotskyite apparatchik.

So Hamon could be a minimal consensus in an anti-Royal majority (from which Hollande and Moscovici would have departed).

I think Hamon would be too left-wing for the party moderates and right-wingers to agree on him. They'd best go with a dark horse, though I can't really come up with one right now.

Sarkozy 2012 !

NB: sure, I'm on the right, but I'm first of all a political junkie and what is happening inside the PS is wonderfully exciting, ONLY from this point of view.... For France, it's not very good as a weak PS would mean a strong far-left and/or an exuberant Bayrou, who may be even more an EGO than Sarkozy, Royal, Delanoë and Villepin.

Wait a minute. No, not Villepin.

The MoDem is still at 7-8 in polls (including a European elections poll), and that seems to be its ceiling. It sure didn't break through in any recent elections and unlikely to do so in 2009. The NPA/LCR is the thing to watch IMO. Besancenot is still in the top 5-10 or so most popular pols in France right now, and many rate him as one of the most trustworthy opponents of the UMP/Sarkozy. I heard about a poll that places him at 10-12 percent in a 2007 presidential re-run. Don't remember the details.

Of course, Bayrou wins the Egomaniac Award hands-down. No question about that.

[Hash]

Royal was on the news this evening. She's still on drugs, it seems.

[Hash]

Final results won't be published until....the congress itself, which will "validate" the results !

Assholes.

[Hash]

Royal has announced her candidacy.

[Hash]

Apparently she has opened up to talking to her sworn enemies. Likely just a bunch of bullcrap if you ask me.

[Hash]

Making a map right now.

[Hash]

Corrected the Aube. And Vosges.

[Hash]

And now for the first of the maps by motion (won't be doing the 2 fringe ones).



Maps to compare with (2005)

[Hash]

[Hash]

[Hash]

Just strongholds around their feudal leaders....

These maps is not sociological (PGSable, please, NO diagonale du vide in this case: Haute-Marne, Cher, Indre, Nièvre, Corrèze, Lot aren't really good results for Hamon and Manche, Calvados, Somme, Essonne, Loire, Pyrénée Atlantiques are NOT part of this diagonale; besides, even the west of Aube is now more a remote suburb of Paris rather than part of diagonale du vide), nor really ideological.

Amusing how a majority of the results are so strongly based on party bosses and barons.

Royal nowadays is: Royal (Poitou-Charentes) + Rebsamen (Côte d'Or) + Peillon (Somme; was on NPS, motion 3 in 2005) + Guérini (Bouches-du-Rhône, Var, Alpes Maritimes) + Collomb (Rhône) + Bianco (Alpes de Haute Provence). Even little new baronets like Guillaume Garot (new mayor of Laval and new supporter of Royal) delivered Mayenne for her.
Hérault's fédération is a bit troubled, with former big mayor of Montpellier Georges Frèche expelled from the PS. But she won handily Hérault.

Any idea on her very strong showing in the Aude? Did the local PS boss endorse her and I didn't hear?

Aubry is: Fabius (Seine-Maritime, Eure, Calvados, Oise, Indre, Cher, Vosges, Haute-Corse, Pyrénées Orientales, Seine-Saint-Denis with Fabius closest lieutenant, Claude Bartolone, new president of the conseil général) + Mauroy-Aubry lands in Nord-Pas-de-Calais + Montebourg (Saône et Loire; was NPS, motion 3 back in '05).
Gironde is a surprise because it was fabiusian for a long time.
Note that in Finistère, Aubry did less bad than in the rest of Bretagne as Marylise Lebranchu, former mayor of Morlaix, is a close supporter.

Finistère was the best or second-best department for Fabius in 2005 IIRC. Gironde surprised me too. The Eure surprised me too. She won it, but with only 33% or something. Fabius took like 50% there in 2005 and 40% in the primary. Leadership change in the local PS?

Hamon is: the left of the party... Emmanuelli (Landes, Pyrénées Atlantiques), Manche, Aube, Creuse and Essonne (with Lienemann and Mélenchon, who has just left the party).

Amusing how NPSish his map is in some areas and not at all in others. But yes, another map based solely on endorsements.

Delanoë is: Hollande (Corrèze, Haute-Vienne, Cantal) the remnants of Jospin and DSK strongholds (Ariège, Vaucluse, Paris, Val-de-Marne, Val-d'Oise) and Rocard strongholds (Bretagne, Bas-Rhin, Franche-Comté).
Haute-Garonne is a surprise: as former Jospin's second base, it should have been better for Delanoë.

The establishment. He underperformed in Paris suburbia.

Each leader is trying not to say many things and to let the others fail or make a mistake, just not to be regarded as the big murderer or trouble-maker....
To be continued!

Hamon just said he won't work with Royal. First one to do so IIRC. Atleast the guy is honest.

[Hash]

What a totally useless waste-of-time Congress.

[Hash]

I'm putting my money on Aubry.