French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008
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October 15, 2021, 05:41:58 PM

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  French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008
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Author Topic: French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008  (Read 25071 times)
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Hashemite
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« Reply #75 on: November 20, 2008, 06:09:47 PM »

This isn't looking good for sanity.

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PGSable
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« Reply #76 on: November 20, 2008, 07:00:03 PM »

Preliminary national results according to François Rebsamen

Royal 43%
Aubry 32%
Hamon 24%
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« Reply #77 on: November 20, 2008, 07:06:46 PM »

I'm seeing 47-27-27 for the drug addict.

Also, the crazy lady would have won over 50% in Paris-18... Rings a bell?
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PGSable
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« Reply #78 on: November 20, 2008, 07:48:10 PM »

Semi-official national results
Royal 42.4%
Aubry 34.7%
Hamon 24%


Hamon will likely speak tonight, Royal will speak tomorrow at noon, and Aubry will not speak until after the runoff.




Results in the West, according to Ouest France.


Basse Normandie

Calvados
Aubry 34%
Royal 34%
Hamon 32%

Manche (turnout 63.46%)
Hamon 44.49%
Royal 28.41%
Aubry 25.79%

Orne (turnout 59%)
Royal 51.28%
Aubry 24.83%
Hamon 17.48%


Bretagne

Côte-d'Armor
Royal 43%
Aubry 35%
Hamon 22%

Finistère (turnout 69.40%, was 68% on November 6)
Royal 39.52%
Aubry 35.44%
Hamon 25.20%

Ille-et-Vilaine
Royal 41%
Aubry 31%
Hamon 28%

Morbihan
Royal 52.68%
Hamon 25.63%
Aubry 21.69%


Pays de la Loire

Loire-Atlantique
Royal 43.11%
Hamon 28.91% (58.9% in Saint-Nazaire)
Aubry 27.98%

Maine-et-Loire (turnout 52.64%) results by section
Royal 43.04%
Aubry 37.16%
Hamon 19.80%

Mayenne
Royal 72%
Hamon 14.48%
Aubry 13.65%

Sarthe (turnout 75%)
Royal 41%
Aubry 39%
Hamon 21%

Vendée
Royal 56%
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Hash
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« Reply #79 on: November 20, 2008, 07:54:01 PM »

If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.
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PGSable
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« Reply #80 on: November 20, 2008, 08:02:00 PM »

Hamon has endorsed Aubry.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #81 on: November 20, 2008, 08:30:12 PM »

If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

Which area is "Hell on Earth" [qm]
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PGSable
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« Reply #82 on: November 20, 2008, 08:34:47 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2008, 08:37:19 PM by PGSable »

If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

Which area is "Hell on Earth" [qm]

I would guess he meant Saint-Nazaire.

For reference, the results from Saint-Nazaire were:
Hamon 58.9%
Royal 21.2%
Aubry 19.9%
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #83 on: November 20, 2008, 08:35:29 PM »

If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

Which area is "Hell on Earth" [qm]

Saint-Nazaire, I would guess.

Oh, the shipbuilding town.
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Hash
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« Reply #84 on: November 20, 2008, 09:07:50 PM »

If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

Which area is "Hell on Earth" [qm]

Saint-Nazaire, I would guess.

Oh, the shipbuilding town.

A very ugly city. Very ugly.
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PGSable
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« Reply #85 on: November 20, 2008, 09:09:50 PM »

Turnout was up to 59.9%, from 56.6% on November 6. 137 141 votes were cast, including nearly 2 500 abstentions. Martinique and Guadeloupe have not yet reported results.

Jospin announced that he voted for Aubry.

If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

Which area is "Hell on Earth" [qm]

Saint-Nazaire, I would guess.

Oh, the shipbuilding town.

A very ugly city. Very ugly.

Yes. It was heavily bombarded during World War II, and they didn't do a great job at rebuilding it.
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Math
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« Reply #86 on: November 21, 2008, 06:57:58 AM »

If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

Which area is "Hell on Earth" [qm]

Saint-Nazaire, I would guess.

Oh, the shipbuilding town.

A very ugly city. Very ugly.
There is no pattern here. He didn't very well in Brest or Le Havre.
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Umengus
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« Reply #87 on: November 21, 2008, 04:02:22 PM »

not sure that the vote was 100% fair. It's very easy to cheat in "primaries"...
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PGSable
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« Reply #88 on: November 21, 2008, 04:09:22 PM »

The polls have closed, turnout seems to have decreased slightly as compared to yesterday. The results should come in faster than last night, and we may have them by midnight.

Turnout was high among Hamon voters, and they seem to have voted solidly for Aubry, but Royal did well among voters who did not turn out yesterday.
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PGSable
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« Reply #89 on: November 21, 2008, 05:25:55 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2008, 05:29:30 PM by PGSable »

It would appear that Royal has won, according to some PS leaders.


Edit: Rebsamen says it's a large Royal victory; the Aubry campaign says it's a virtual tie.
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« Reply #90 on: November 21, 2008, 05:33:48 PM »

If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

Which area is "Hell on Earth" [qm]

Saint-Nazaire, I would guess.

Oh, the shipbuilding town.

A very ugly city. Very ugly.
There is no pattern here. He didn't very well in Brest or Le Havre.

Where do you get the results from Brest and Le Havre?

It would appear that Royal has won, according to some PS leaders.


Edit: Rebsamen says it's a large Royal victory; the Aubry campaign says it's a virtual tie.

If Royal wins, the PS wins the stupidity award.
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PGSable
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« Reply #91 on: November 21, 2008, 05:37:18 PM »

In Pas-de-Calais, Martine Aubry is currently at 63% (she won 55% yesterday), with 25% of sections reporting. Turnout was slightly up from yesterday in the federation, which was expected because the militants also voted in a federal secretary runoff.
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« Reply #92 on: November 21, 2008, 05:38:56 PM »

Any place with the results by fed from last night?
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PGSable
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« Reply #93 on: November 21, 2008, 05:41:59 PM »

The PS leadership told Reuters that Royal won 52 to 53% of the vote; the Aubry campaign says Royal has 50.9%.


Any place with the results by fed from last night?

The federation's website says:

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« Reply #94 on: November 21, 2008, 05:43:11 PM »

No, I was talking about all 102 feds.
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PGSable
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« Reply #95 on: November 21, 2008, 05:45:05 PM »


I can't find any; the PS website isn't up to date. The individual federation websites do have results, though.
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PGSable
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« Reply #96 on: November 21, 2008, 06:06:11 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2008, 08:11:52 PM by PGSable »

With roughly half of all votes counted, Royal is at 52%. Big federations such as Bouches-du-Rhône, Nord, and Pas-de-Calas have yet to report. Royal insists that her margin is higher, while Aubry insists that it's too close to call.

Aubry wins Haute-Garonne with 52.5%. Hamon won 32% here yesterday; his voters turned out, but only two thirds of them went for Aubry.

Royal wins Lyon with 56.3%.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #97 on: November 21, 2008, 06:26:43 PM »

Not yet complete results by federations for the first round.

From Libération.fr:

A quelques exceptions près, Ségolène Royal remporte en région des scores similaires à son résultat national. Revue de détail.

En région Centre, les résultats sont la photocopie conforme du score national: Royal en tête avec 42,22% des suffrages, suivie par Martine Aubry (34,70%) et Benoît Hamon (23,04%).

Dans l'Est, en Moselle, Royal arrive largement en tête avec 820 voix des militants dans le département (56,75 %), contre 375 à Martine Aubry et 267 à Benoit Hamon.
Idem dans le Bas-Rhin: Ségolène Royal remporte 42,5 % des suffrages (386 voix). Martine Aubry suit, avec 43 voix de retard (37,78 %), et Benoit Hamon obtient 179 voix (19,71 %).

Dans le Rhône, fédération de Gérard Collomb, premier signataire de sa motion, Ségolène Royal devient majoritaire. La présidente de Poitou-Charente a réuni hier soir 50,65% des suffrages, soit 22 points de plus que sa seconde, Martine Aubry (28,57%). Celle-ci partait cependant de loin et a bénéficié d'assez bons reports des partisans de Bertrand Delanoë.

Martine Aubry, maire de Lille, arrive d'ailleurs première dans le Nord avec 62,5% des suffrages (sa motion totalisait 58% des suffrages le 6 novembre). Benoît Hamon progresse de trois points. Ségolène Royal, elle, double carrément son score (elle était à 10,39%).

En Aquitaine, Ségolène Royal fait le plein dans quatre départements sur cinq. La Gironde ne sort pas du rang et a bien suivi la tendance nationale en respectant l’ordre du trio. Ségolène Royal est donc en tête, avec 43% des voix. Mais elle marque ici son avance face à Martine Aubry qui n’affiche que 29% des suffrages, au coude à coude avec Benoît Hamon, fort de 26%. Ce dernier arrive en tête dans les Landes.

Dans les Bouches-du-Rhône, les militants ont voté en masse pour Royal, suivant le choix de leur leader départemental Jean-Noël Guérini. Elle remporte 69% des voix, Aubry est loin derrière avec autour de 20%. La maire de Lille, qui avait fait 9,2% le 6 novembre, a semble-t-il récupéré les 9,3% de Bertrand Delanoë. Quant à Benoit Hamon, il réalise autour de 10%, améliorant son score du 6 novembre (6,6%).

En Bretagne, enfin, Royal est nettement en tête: après avoir voté pour la motion de Bertrand Delanoé pour le congrès de Reims, la majorité des militants socialistes bretons ont reporté leurs voix sur Ségolène Royal. L'ex-candidate aux présidentielles réalise son meilleur score dans le Morbihan avec 52,7% des voix devant Benoît Hamon, 25,6%, et Martine Aubry, 22,7%. Les scores sont plus serrés dans le Finistère où la présidente de la région Poitou-Charente réunit quand même 40% des votants sur son nom, devant Martine Aubry, 35%, et le Brestois Benoît Hamon, 25%.


And for the run-off, it seems as if I'm completely xrong in my predictions.... AGAIN !

It's a rule: when I make a prediction, just take the opposite... and you're sure to be right....

But let's wait a bit.
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PGSable
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« Reply #98 on: November 21, 2008, 06:27:19 PM »

Now with three quarters of all votes counted, the Royal campaign claims 53%; Aubry still says it's 50–50.
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PGSable
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« Reply #99 on: November 21, 2008, 06:30:47 PM »

Not yet complete results by federations for the first round.

From Libération.fr:

A quelques exceptions près, Ségolène Royal remporte en région des scores similaires à son résultat national. Revue de détail.

En région Centre, les résultats sont la photocopie conforme du score national: Royal en tête avec 42,22% des suffrages, suivie par Martine Aubry (34,70%) et Benoît Hamon (23,04%).

Dans l'Est, en Moselle, Royal arrive largement en tête avec 820 voix des militants dans le département (56,75 %), contre 375 à Martine Aubry et 267 à Benoit Hamon.
Idem dans le Bas-Rhin: Ségolène Royal remporte 42,5 % des suffrages (386 voix). Martine Aubry suit, avec 43 voix de retard (37,78 %), et Benoit Hamon obtient 179 voix (19,71 %).

Dans le Rhône, fédération de Gérard Collomb, premier signataire de sa motion, Ségolène Royal devient majoritaire. La présidente de Poitou-Charente a réuni hier soir 50,65% des suffrages, soit 22 points de plus que sa seconde, Martine Aubry (28,57%). Celle-ci partait cependant de loin et a bénéficié d'assez bons reports des partisans de Bertrand Delanoë.

Martine Aubry, maire de Lille, arrive d'ailleurs première dans le Nord avec 62,5% des suffrages (sa motion totalisait 58% des suffrages le 6 novembre). Benoît Hamon progresse de trois points. Ségolène Royal, elle, double carrément son score (elle était à 10,39%).

En Aquitaine, Ségolène Royal fait le plein dans quatre départements sur cinq. La Gironde ne sort pas du rang et a bien suivi la tendance nationale en respectant l’ordre du trio. Ségolène Royal est donc en tête, avec 43% des voix. Mais elle marque ici son avance face à Martine Aubry qui n’affiche que 29% des suffrages, au coude à coude avec Benoît Hamon, fort de 26%. Ce dernier arrive en tête dans les Landes.

Dans les Bouches-du-Rhône, les militants ont voté en masse pour Royal, suivant le choix de leur leader départemental Jean-Noël Guérini. Elle remporte 69% des voix, Aubry est loin derrière avec autour de 20%. La maire de Lille, qui avait fait 9,2% le 6 novembre, a semble-t-il récupéré les 9,3% de Bertrand Delanoë. Quant à Benoit Hamon, il réalise autour de 10%, améliorant son score du 6 novembre (6,6%).

En Bretagne, enfin, Royal est nettement en tête: après avoir voté pour la motion de Bertrand Delanoé pour le congrès de Reims, la majorité des militants socialistes bretons ont reporté leurs voix sur Ségolène Royal. L'ex-candidate aux présidentielles réalise son meilleur score dans le Morbihan avec 52,7% des voix devant Benoît Hamon, 25,6%, et Martine Aubry, 22,7%. Les scores sont plus serrés dans le Finistère où la présidente de la région Poitou-Charente réunit quand même 40% des votants sur son nom, devant Martine Aubry, 35%, et le Brestois Benoît Hamon, 25%.


And for the run-off, it seems as if I'm completely xrong in my predictions.... AGAIN !

It's a rule: when I make a prediction, just take the opposite... and you're sure to be right....

But let's wait a bit.

Do you know when we can expect full results by federation for both rounds?
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